Security
Iraqi Casualties Have Risen 51%, U.S. Study Finds

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By MICHAEL R. GORDON
Published: September 2, 2006

WASHINGTON, Sept. 1 -- Iraqi casualties soared by more than 50 percent in recent months, the product of spiraling sectarian clashes and a Sunni-based insurgency that remains "potent and viable," the Pentagon said in its latest comprehensive assessment of security in Iraq.

During the period from the establishment of the new Iraqi government on May 20 until Aug. 11, the average number of weekly attacks jumped to almost 800. That was a substantial increase from earlier this year and almost double the number of the first part of 2004.

As a consequence, Iraqi casualties increased 51 percent over the last reporting period. The document notes that, based on initial reports, Iraqi casualties among civilians and security forces reached nearly 120 a day, up from about 80 a day in the pervious reporting period from mid-February to mid-May. About two years ago they were running about 30 a day.

First of all, it is interesting that the Pentagon released this report at all, a report which so strongly contradicts Bush administration assertions that progress is being made in Iraq. The fact that this has happened at all seems to indicate a challenge to Rumsfeld's authority led by a group of senior military personnel who are fed up with Rumsfeld's disastrous and unprofessional leadership.

But equally interesting is the the effect this is likely to have on the election.  The Gray Lady will run this article on the front page tomorrow (today) and this story seems likely to put the administration and Republicans back on the defensive.  

This is just as Donald Rumsfeld is about to be subject to a confidence vote by the Democrats.  If that happens, it could be a masterstroke for the Democrats: individual Republicans, particularly in swing districts,  would feel pressured to distance themselves from Bush by voting for the measure.  But the aggregate affect of a Republican mutiny would be to hurt the Grand Old Party and weaken its security credentials (particularly if Rumsfeld loses the vote).

So far the Democrats, through luck and some recently acquired skill, have managed to continue to dominate the narrative in this race. The Noe Trial starts in October!