This is something the MyDD community can take into their own hands. Contact your local congressional candidate, contact your local Democratic committee and volunteer. Show up for canvassing, show up for phone bank. This is not a decision that is going to be made by DCCC or the DNC. This is a decision that will be made by millions of Democrats across the country. If we decide to be active on a local level we will win. If not, we won't win.

GOTV in minority communities is more than making celebrity TV appearances in African American churches on the Sunday before. Indeed, this may be counterproductive by suggesting to swing white voters that there is little for them in a Democratic victory.

Many voters make a decision not to vote weeks before the election; they can be talked out of it if we start soon enough.

Voter registration--there's still plenty of time--can help overcome a habitual non-voter deficit. Moreover, by canvassing for unregistered Democrats, we wake up the registered Democrats.

The biggest issue is a highly-mobile Democratic electorate who simply have more pressing problems than voting. Early contact gets them registered, makes them comfortable with the ballot, and motivates them to vote.

We have turnout problems across the board, not just in minority communities.  The only difference is that accurate voter ID is more difficult.

Both problems yield to early and effective canvassing, which also innoculates against the late smears--a voter persuaded face-to-face or even on the phone is much less susceptibla to TV  advertising from the other side.

It's not GOTV--it's voter reg., early voting, and accurate voter ID by phone and in person where the nose-to-nose combat with the Reps take place.  We can beat them, but we need intensity.

I don't doubt the national trends, but the Montana race is showing precisely the opposite - Tester up in likely voter surveys and tied or slightly down in registered voter surveys.

We nominated a good man who has the base excited out here. Critical youth-heavy areas of the state are poised to turn out in force. And Tester's approval is staying high, which bodes well for us even if the electorate expands.

.... that might help explain among what demographic subsets we see a drop in numbers as we go from RV to LV? Or do turnout numbers drop across the board?

Generally, turnout drops the most among the young, the single, and the lower income people.  The people with the strongest voting habits are older, married, mroe affluent and whiter, although African-Americans have pretty high turnout rates, especially as compared to Latino.

In addition, employers are making an effort to register and persuade their workers to vote with the company.  See here.  This has to be counteracted.  

It's great that the DNC provides a link for voting early, but every registered Democrat should be sent an early ballot request form in states where it's possible.

Republicans get their people to vote early -- and win.

I hope those guy are currently working on their GOTV...I just cant understand how can the GOP GOTV be so much stronger..what are the democrat doing so wrong?..is it just purely about money when building a strong GOTV.

I agree about getting the african american votes out in full force. The problem is, a lot of african americans feels like the democrats arent doing anything for their community and only come calling once election day is nearing.

Hopefully, we would be able to break all record as far as truning out the hispanic and african american voters.

It sure doesn't help motivate the base to get to the polls when so called leaders like Obama and Bayh call them "confused" and "wimps".

The people who are most likely to be change minded and angry (motivated) are people upset about Iraq.   Democrats should be hammering Iraq.

Do what the republicans do .... change the subject, refuse to talk about anything else, and HIT YOUR TALKING POINTS.   When asked a question about taxes, answer "Bush blundered into Iraq and we need a need a new direction."

Seriously, I think Democrats are waaaay off message lately.  Its Iraq, and to a lesser extent protecting social security, job, and homeland security.

GREAT post, Chris -- now will you pass along the word to Markos, Jane H. and Josh M.? If I have to read another word about Joe Liberman's campaign staff, I'm going to toss up my breakfast granola.

In a Presidential year, you'd be correct in saying that black voters are the key to turnout. But most black voters live in heavily Democratic districts. What Democrats need to win the House is strong turnout among white suburban women in the Northeast and Midwest. Most of the pickup opportunities are in suburban CT, PA, OH, MI and IN. The gender gap is back because of unpopularity with the Iraq war.

In Senate races like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, black turnout will matter more.

That Gallup quote:

the RV numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about ten and a half percentage points.

Since then, I don't think anyone has followed the point up. (I generally don't do polls, because others, like Chris, have the expertise.)

But - Jesus! If the 10 point thing is genuine, the entire lefty sphere has been deluding itself!

The best way to do this is by propping up the State level candidates. The are most able to directly pinpoint who where and what at the micro level better than the larger campaign if they win on that level the top of the ticket usually wins too but they are being strapped for cash and volunteers by the coordinated campaigns

This would be "GOTV" correct?

I had estimated that Repubs GOTV increased the "natural" vote by 2% - that might have to be higher by another 2%...combine that with 2% every factor over money on airwaves (If there is a 2 to 1 spending advantage, figure a 2% vote shift), dems are always coming from behind.

I'll be doing some phone banking and canvassing for Jason Altmire in PA-04 vs. Melissa Hart. This is one of the reason I have been so loathe to see/hear discussions about what the Democrats will do if they take back the House, who will be in what committee chair, etc.

Cart before the horse talk can lead to complacency among the villagers, as it were.

'06 is our last chance.

If we lose in 6 weeks, do we really think that the left-wing blogosphere will still exist in '08?

It's too much ready communication and planning, too much fundraising, too powerful, too energized, far too dangerous to be allowed to remain.

We're living in a Golden Age of blogging that will absolutely disappear if we don't get off our asses RIGHT NOW...

These Likely Voter results are simply ridiculous. Gallup is notorious for doing this. The Zogby poll is unreliable and FOX, well...

How can we have a 12% lead among registered voters and then drop off by 6% among Likely voters?

For that to be true, it would mean that Democrats are 12% less likely to vote than republicans. Yet, everything we've seen - from primary turnouts to polls - show Democrats MORE motivated than Republicans to vote. As someone else has pointed out, in individual races

Gallup's "Likely" vote model has been off for years. Going back to the 2000 election, remember they had Bush winning by 12% in 2004 and 7% in 2000 among their "likely voters." Gallup GROSSLY undercounts Blacks and Hispanics. I know these groups tend not to vote at the same rate as others, but even with the drop off Gallup still undercounts them. They don't match any previous election total. I hate it when Gallup makes its value judgements. Just give us the numbers and shut up.

Another thing, I can't help but notice how Republican numbers essentially stay the same - around 40% (regardless whether they are registered or likely voters). It's the Democratic numbers that fall. No one ever respects us, our opinions or our constituency. This will make a nice surprise on election day for the pundits.

So basically, i'm not buying it. Personally, I think our numbers will be HIGHER on election day, because more Democrats will vote than Republicans.

I haven't seen any evidence here of either voter contact or GOTV planning.  There is some small level of canvassing (very small) in Reading by the coordinated campaign and that's it.

You can't simply do a flush canvass on election day in many of these towns and cities.  People are so transient they can't vote where they're living this month.

We needed to do saturated canvassing all summer in high Dem Performance precincts to identify and register the voters.  It wasn't done.

The GOP has a well oiled GOTV machine primed and ready.  We have nothing.  This is the primary reason I predicted Santorum will win.  He'll know who his voters are and he'll get them to the polls.  Casey can't because he has no field operation.

Actually, even if we DO turn out our base, we'll lose if they can turn out theirs.  And the recent polls all show Republicans swinging back to support for the Administration and getting set to vote in large numbers.

That was the lesson of 2004:  the Republicans now have a bigger base than we do, in practical terms.  

If everyone with any inclination to vote and vote Democratic turns out, and everyone with any inclination to vote and vote Republican turns out, the Republicans will win -- not by much, but close only counts with hand grenades.

(It wouldn't be so if voting were compulsory, but this ain't Australia.)

I don't see why this is a surprise.  We haven't won 51% of the vote nationally since 1964.  Something like 60% or more of whites always vote against us.  Hispanics are now completely competitive as between the parties.  Bush carried two of the three states with the highest Hispanic totals in 2004.

If it weren't for the black vote and the big-city liberals, Democrats wouldn't be a national party at all.  This is not the shape of a governing coalition, because blacks are a minority and big-city liberals are not only a minority but a dwindling one.

Specifically, the current polls show Bush's overall rating at 44% after months of recovering from the 30% low.

Of more immediate relevance, since Bush isn't running for office, the Gallup generic likely-voter poll now has the parties tied at 48% each.

That isn't as bad as it looks.  

It's much worse than it looks.  

Gallup's methodology (as the admit themselves) always results in a 5-8% overstate of the Democratic numbers in the LV poll.

What that means is that we're actually down by 5-8 points in the nationwide congressional preferences.

Since Congressional races are intensely local and Congression districts are thoroughly gerrymandered, that isn't necessarily a sentence of death, but it does mean that there's not going to be any 'wave'.   At least not for us.  It's now entirely possible the GOP will gain seats.

We peaked too soon, in July-August.  But polls only matter on election day, and there the trends are against us.

Barring some big "October Surprise" the odds look like there won't be any big change at the polls.

And for an Administration's party NOT to lose seats in an off-year election in the second term is extraordinary.

Dean screwed up.  Why am I not surprised?  In fact, as DNC chair, he's not only screwed up, he's screwed the party.

His '50 State' strategy has wasted millions on Red states and districts where Jesus Christ running as a Democrat couldn't beat Beelzebub on the Republican ticket.

But hey, we managed to get Liberman off the ticket... of course, he's going to win anyway, but...