MI-Gov: Jennifer Granholm 50, Dick DeVos 42 (last month 49-42)

MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow 53, Mike Bouchard 34 (last month 51-38)

More detailed breakdowns from the poll are available here.

Of course, the issue of the day is the economy.

54% of people are concerned with the economy, 66% of people think Michigan is on the wrong track, and 82% of people are unhappy with Michigan's economy.  Despite this, Granholm only has a 38% unfavorable rating.

Therefore, while voters consider the economy to be very important and are unhappy with it, this does not reflect negatively on Granholm herself.  In other words, the dishonest Republican tactic to tie Governor Granholm to our state's failing economy has failed to resonate with voters.  Furthermore, Michiganders trust Granholm more than DeVos in terms of improving the economy (48 to 39).  When it comes to the economy, they blame Bush over Granholm (44 to 28).

This data says that it doesn't look like the Granholm campaign's efforts to nationalize the issues to include Bush are very effective.  Over 85% of people are not basing their vote because of Bush or Bush's ties with DeVos.  Despite Granholm's "Gas Prices" advertisement, less than 40% of voters trust her on that issue.

On the issues, voters inherently trust Granholm more than DeVos on affordable health care, stem cells, water quality/the environment, and even having a position on abortion.  This could be due to association of these issues with Democrats, Granholm's own accomplishments in these areas, or DeVos' absolute refusal to take a position on pretty much any issue.

Michiganders are notorious ticket-splitters.  The fact that 60% of them think that its bad if Republicans control every branch of Michigan Government could work in our favor.  DeVos doesn't mention the word Republican on any of his ads or on his website.  This means that party identification in the Governor's race is very useful, if played the right way.  Mention that Republicans control everything and are responsible for the condition our country/state is, throw the Democrat label on Granholm.  BAM!  Party ID was about even in the survey, but more Democrats identify themselves as strong Democrats than Republicans did (27-22). Especially given how energized they are compared to Republicans, using the Democrat "brand" will help to turn out those voters.

Money wise, Stabenow has about eight times as much cash on hand as Bouchard.  DeVos is expected to spend at least twice as much as Granholm, but could spend much more than that if he thinks that it will make the difference between winning and losing.  For him, going on the air is a matter of oversaturation, not affordability.  After all, what is a $100 million to a guy like him?

Interestingly, the MCRI now is up 48% to 37%, a dramatic shift from previous studies.  According to their data, the MCRI would pass if voted on today.  The last MCRI poll had the opposition up by 2 points, inside the margin of error (not statistically significant). Again, ballot proposals are difficult to accurately poll.

Another interesting observation, revealing the power of subtle differences in the way questions are phrased:  70% believe that Michigan's economy is getting weaker, but 24% think Michigan's economy is getting worse.