Second Primary Returns Thread

And into the late night we go. Most recent results up top:
  • MD-04: Wynn's lead is still under 2,000 votes with 64 percent reporting, with Wynn at 50 percent and Edwards at 46 percent. (Jonathan)
  • MD-Sen: The results continnue to jump around, with Cardin's lead falling below 25,000 votes with 84 percent of precincts reporting. Cardin's percentage lead currently stands at 46 percent to 39 percent. (Jonathan)
  • MD-Sen: Cardin's lead is now nearing 40,000 votes, 48 percent to 36 percent, with 77 percent reporting. (Jonathan)
  • AZ-08: It looks like Graf's lead in the GOP primary is indeed holding, with Graf at 43.1 percent and Huffman at 37.3 percent with almost 90 percent reporting. Looks like the NRCC just couldn't pull this one off. Perhaps the Republicans' GOTV program isn't everything it's cracked up to be? (Jonathan)
  • MD-Sen: Cardin 45%--Mfume 37%, with 70% reporting. Just as Mfume starts to close the gap, I have run out of juice. I have no idea if it will be enough, but I expect the race to keep getting closer. My bet is that Cardin wins--current numbers seem to indicate as much. at 1:45 a.m., however, I am out of gas entirely and have to call it a night. Feel free to stick around and post updates in the comments.
  • MD-04: It does not appear likely that this race will be updated anytime soon. The voting machine screw ups from earlier in the day are bogging down both big races in Maryland. These commentaers at Dailykos seem to think that Edwards will continue to close the gap as the night goes on, but that she will not catch Wyn.. Thus, it could come down to provisional ballots (many were cast because of the machine screw up), but Edwards will need a big margin on those ballots to win. No matter what happens, she made this race close, and Wynn remains vulnerable.
  • AZ-08: Graf 42.4%--Huffman 37.8%. Margin is 2,052 with 80.6% reporting. Big jump for Graf. He looks almost certain to win now. No more updates on this race--Huffman would have to beat Graf by 20% in the remaining vote to win. All of that would have to come from a county with 75.6% reporting where he is currently losing to Graf. Not. Gonna. Happen. Now, AZ-08 shouold be a Democrtic pickup. Woo-hoo!
  • AZ-08: Graf 40.8%--Huffman 38.8% with 62.1% reporting. Finally, these numbers are accurate. Again, I apologiuze for previous mistakes.
  • MD-04: Wynn 51%--Edwards 45%. The margin is now 1,775 votes with 50% reportying. This comeback might be for real. Heck, this is now closer than the Senate race!
  • MD-Sen: Cardin 47%--Mfume 37%. The margin is now 30,500 votes with 64% reporting. It is getting close to the point hwere big Mfume areas may not matter.
  • AZ-Turnout: Forget what I wrote here before--I was looking only at partial results. I'm really, really tired and I apologize for the mistake.
  • AZ-08: Interesting insight from ColoDem:
    Huffman is not winning in any county, and all that is left are rural counties where Graf is strong.
    Wishful thinking? I don't know, but if Huffman isn't winning anywhere, hard to see how he wins overall.
  • NY Turnout: As bad as Democratic turnout was, it tripled Republican turnout tonight. I guess it is possible that the AG primary was driving that, but it really seems like good news for all of the House races this year--and in NY, we have a lot of House races banking on a wave.
  • AZ-08: The earlier numbers were with 53% reporting. Giffords is the Democratic nominee. Nailbiter on the Republican side.
  • MD-Sen: Cardin 46%--Mfume 37%. Margin of 20,100 votes with 52% reporting. I'm expecting many Mfume districts to report later on, and for this race to tighten. It doesn't look bad for Cardin though.
  • AZ-08: Giffords 57.8%--Weiss 29.2% on the Democratic side. Graf 40.5%--Huffman 39.0% ont he Republican side. I still have idea idea how many precincts have reported.
  • MD-04: Wynn 52%--Edwards 44%. Gap of 2,100 votes with 48% reporting. I thought it was over, but is Edwards actually still in this? It does keep getting closer...



Display:


Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

It was a good night for Gen-Xers running in safe Democratic seats. Keith Ellison and Yvette Clarke are both headed for Congress, and it looks like John Sarbanes may be too. A lot of other Xers, including Kevin McCarthy (R), Kathy Castor (D), Adrian Smith (R), and John Gard (R) are also likely headed to become rising stars in the House. Interesting generational trend there.

Gonna stay up to watch AZ-8. I (unfortunately) predicted a Huffman win, and I really want to be wrong, especially after the (again unfortunate) accuracy of my RI-Sen prediction.


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:06:43 AM EST

Re: AZ-08 Republican (none / 0)

Those numbers are for 184/346 precincts.

Link here:  http://mer.ap.org/race.jsp?key=71129113


by InigoMontoya on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:07:04 AM EST

SoS site (none / 0)

http://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primar y/REP-1008.htm

has the same numbers as the AP site posted aboce


Matt - DemConWatch
by msn1 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:10:35 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Mfume and Edwards should both surge late since it was Montgomery and Baltimore Counties that stayed open late.  Not saying it'll be enough necessarily, but they should both tighten notably.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:14:41 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Except that MC is going about 60-30 in favor of Cardin.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:36:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

Graf is going to win in Arizona 8.  The rural areas are last to report and they are the most anti immigrant areas in the state.


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:15:05 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

fingers crossed!

I don't trust Jan Brewer though. Whaddaya wanna bet Huffman suddenly surges at the last minute?


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:16:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Should I get a medal for my 'crystal ball'?
This was my earlier prediction:

AZ-08: Graf

MD-04: Wynn, by 4 points

MD-Sen: Cardin, a squeaker

RI Sen: Chafee, a relatively comfortable win.

WI-08:  Kagen

I have so far nailed RI and WI races. It's now down to AZ-08, MD-Sen and MD-04.


by firestorm on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:17:26 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

you'll be right on Maryland. Cardin and Wynn will win. As for Arizona, I want you to be right, and I want me to be wrong!


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:19:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

you are wrong about Arizona.


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:21:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Good. I want Graf to win!


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

And he did!!  No conspiracy !!

Dems will win in November!!


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Now I have nailed 3 for 3!


by firestorm on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:27:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

You are annoying!!


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:41:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

I would say that if Cardin wins by more than 5 points that we really could not call that a squeaker.  But great job on the other ones.


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:20:40 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

I am very proud of my prediction on RI race. It was contrary to CW, but I do believe Chafee sounds much more reasonable during the whole campaign. I based on my predicition on a higher-than-usual turnout. For a race with usually 30,000-40,000 in total votes, it's rather easy to take a commanding lead when some Indy. decides to come in.

I think Chafee will win the general election. You can't see any policy difference between Chafee and Whitehouse. I don't think the 'elect D' meme alone can catapult Whitehouse to the senate.

My prediction on Cardin being a squeaker was based on the usual turnout strength of black voters. We will see the final tally. If the margin is within 3-4 points, i'll call it a squeak.


by firestorm on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:34:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 0)

Sorry, but Kyl is killing Pederson in the overall votes theme.  I would not put too much stock into this however as we have a Republican Governor Primary going on.

I think you put too much stock into primary numbers overall.  These numbers are difficult to compare because in some places you have house races and others you do not.  Even local races can effect overall turnout.  Don't read too much into it.


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:33:02 AM EST

Az 08 Repub Graf by 2% with 62% reporting (none / 0)

No polls from Cochice (64 total) yet and 67 left in Mima county (25% of the county polls) still out. Graf up by 700 and a bit votes.


by The Professor on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:46:22 AM EST

MD-Senate (none / 0)

At this point in time, Cardin and Mfume combined have twice the votes that Steele has. I will confidently predict that Steele doesn't have a snowball's chance in the general election.


by billybob on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:48:01 AM EST

Re: MD-Senate (none / 0)

Except that there wasn't any reason for Republicans to show up today. There were almost no contested races. Plus there are almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans in the state anyways. The primary turn-out really doesn't mean that much in terms of momentum or trends.

I have been very optimistic about this race all along. We'll almost certainly win it just because this is a Democratic state and a Democratic year. But the numbers from today don't actually tell us that much.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:56:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD-Senate (3.00 / 1)

My good sir, are you forgetting The Wig Man? :-)


by billybob on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:11:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD-Senate (3.00 / 1)

I almost registered as a Republican just to vote for him.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:22:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

For what it's worth: Pima County is, basically, Tucson AZ, the most liberal part of the district. Cochise, the one that has yet to report, is rural, but also contains places like Bisbee, which is touristy and has people from out of state in it. However, in 2004 Cochise County went about 60/40 for Bush, and 58/36/5 for Kolbe, the Republican whose retirement opened this seat. (The 5% was for the Libertarian candidate.)


by hilzoy on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:52:21 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

And lo! Cochise County reports, and increases Graf's majority to 42.4% to Huffman's 37.8%     (80.6% of polls reporting.)

What's odd about this is that I actually live in Maryland...


by hilzoy on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Someone tell Chris he is way off on the Pederson-Kyl thing.  


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:52:29 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

Other Maryland Results:

Doug Gansler will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General.

The Comptroller race is still up in the air but DINO Schaefer looks like he's in trouble. The real progressive Pete Franchot is in second to Janet Owens (not much of a Democrat but better than Schaefer). But Franchot should benefit from late ballots out of Montgomery County.

It also looks like Ike Leggett will replace former gubernatorial candidate Doug Duncan as Montgomery County Executive.

Montgomery County is definitely late (CD-8 is way behind the other races). Baltimore is a little late too but we'll be uplate for MC. That means Cardin will almost certainly win (whatever ground Mfume gains in Baltimore Cardin will probably make up in MC. The caveat there is that the ballot problems this morning were in Silver Spring where Mfume will probably do better in than he will in the rest of the county).


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 12:53:00 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Well, there are roughly 324,000 votes total in the Maryland senate race right now. So if the 66% is roughly accurate in terms of total votes and not just precincts, you should have maybe 165,00 votes remaining. If the other canddiates swoop up the same percentage, 16%, that would be about 26,000. Leaving 139,000 for Cardin and Mfume. So that would mean Mfume needs to defeat Cardin roughly 84,500 to 54,500 to make up this gap. That would be almost 61% of the two-man total.


by jagakid on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:02:25 AM EST

Re: AZ-08 Republican (none / 0)

Graf 42.4, Huffman 37.8, a little over 2,000 vote difference, with 80.6 percent of the vote in.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:16:30 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

I voted in Arizona's third congressional district today.  Paine is losing by 2 votes with 97% of the vote in.  This is a Strong Republican district, but unfortunately the progressive is currently losing by two votes.

My wife and I voted for Paine today, but I forget to have my sister and her husband vote.

Now, I feel guilty.

Not that we have a chance to win here in November, but Paine is clearly the progressive and I would hate to see him lose.


by cuomo2016 on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:21:25 AM EST

AZ 08 Graf by 2800 with 89.9% reporting (none / 0)

Huffman has to win by almost 2-1 with the remaining 10,000 to 12,000 votes to pull it out.  So graf is the winner.


by The Professor on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:39:07 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Chris, there is no reason to think that the Montgomery County returns will help Mfume at all. So far Montgomery County is sending 58% of its vote to Cardin and Mfume is getting just over 25%. I hate to admit it but this race is over. I'm skeptical that Mfume will even close the gap by much, theres no way he comes back.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:40:37 AM EST

Re: Graf's the Winner (none / 0)

89.9% of Precincts Reporting:

Huffman 37.4%
Graf 43.0%

http://www.azsos.gov/results/2006/primar y/REP-1008.htm

OK, so I was wrong on RI-Senate... Chafee pulled it off.

But at least I was right on this one (and MD-Senate, apparently).


Want to defend marriage equality in Maine? Ask me how!
by atdleft on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:46:47 AM EST

Re: Winner (none / 0)

43.1% Graf
37.3% Huffman

It looks like we have a winner in AZ-08:

Gabrielle Giffords!


Want to defend marriage equality in Maine? Ask me how!
by atdleft on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

MD Controller (none / 0)

This race is coming down to the wire. Franchot and Owens will come down to the wire. There are fewer precincts out in Anne Arundel County, where Owens is winning, as oppose dto PG County, where Franchot is winning. PG County has more votes than Anne Arundel. I can't call this one.

Owens has a very narrow lead of a few thousand votes, but there are more pro-Franchot than pro-Owens precincts left.

I am not sure where Montgomery County stands. According to their county elections web site, 150 precincts have reported. In 2004 there were 233 precincts that reported. So there might still be a ton of pro-Franchot precincts out there.

Thus I can't predict where this one is going. If there are more Montgomery and PG County precincts, where are pro-Franchot out, than pro-Ownes prencincts, then Franchot could still win.


by jiacinto on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 01:56:41 AM EST

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

Montgomery County is pro-Franchot. He's going to end up on top. Best news of the night.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:40:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

From what I can tell there are more pro-Franchot precincts out there than pro-Owens. Owens has only 20% left of Anne Arundel County to report. There are still more pro-Franchot precints out in Montgomery and PG Counties. If Franchot continues to dominate Montgomery County, then when the late votes reports, he will probably overtake Owens.


by jiacinto on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:43:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

I agree. This could well become a real mess if Owens sues over the extra hour Montgomery County had- the margin of votes may well end up being close enough for those ballots to make the difference.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:00:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

Well frankly what she and the other Baltimore-area candidates should have done was sue and demand that the extra hour be allowed statewide. Frankly, if I had been the judge, I would issued an order requiring that the polls stay open until 9 PM statewide.


by jiacinto on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:03:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

Well Baltimore City actually was open until 10. But you're still right. Of course, if that had happened and Franchot lost he might have challenged those ballots. We'll see.


by js noble on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:28:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MD Controller (none / 0)

Well I am headed to bed now. The Baltimore Sun now has Franchot behind Owens by 4000 votes. 87.45% of the precincts are in.

The county breakdown that I have is this:

Anne Arundel County: 86.46% of the precincts there are reporting. Owens is winning here, as this is her home county. 166 out of 192precints  have reported. Owens is winning by 6,000 votes here.

Montgomery County: 195/233 precincts have reported in this county. Franchot has an approximate lead of 30,000 votes. These final precincts should add to his total and may make the difference between winning and losing.

Prince George's County: 61.65% of the precincts have reported. Franchot is winning here, as this is part of the DC suburbs. 127/206 precincts have reported. Franchot has about a 5,000 vote there. There are about 79 precincts precincts left there.

Based on these trends, given that there are about    155 (127+38) pro-Franchot precincts out compared to only 26 for Owens, I think that Franchot will eke out a win once the last precincts report.

1568 out 1793 precincts are reporting. (127+38+26)  191 precincts are left out in Anne Arundel, Montgomery, and PG Counties. 1793-1568 = 225 precincts left to report statewide.

That means that of the remaining precincts ((155/225)*100) 68.8% should break for Franchot. ((26/225)*100) 11.55% should break for Owens. That leaves 19.55% that could break either way that I can't account for. These precincts are probably scattered across the state and thus could go any way. They are random.

Based on these trends, and given that there are probably more than normal provisional ballots from Montgomery County, I think that Franchot will overtake Owens very late in the count. However, once all the votes are counted, I predict a very narrow win for him. Unless those other 26 precincts break for Owens overwhelimingly, if his margins in Montgomery and PG Counties follow the earlier totals, then Franchot is headed to victory, albeit a very narrow one.

I am tired and am turning to bed, so I would appreciate it if someone could check my math. Otherwise I guess we will know tommorrow morning tommorrow morning who won.


by jiacinto on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mfume and Cardin: Semi Speeches (none / 0)

Cardin and Mfume have given, respectively, semi-acceptance and semi-concession speeches, with Mfume promising to support Cardin if Cardin wins (not surprising given the ideological and personal kinship of the two competitors.)


by Crablaw on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:35:11 AM EST

MD Controller (none / 0)

Franchot has now taken the lead per the Baltimore Sun. Given that there are more pro-Franchot than pro-Owens precincts out it looks he will be winning the nomination for Controller.


by jiacinto on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:37:02 AM EST

Re: Wynn-Edwards (none / 0)

Meanwhile, in the MD-04, Donna Edwards has narrowed the gap against Al Wynn to 50-46 with 64 percent of the vote.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:55:25 AM EST

MD-04 Edwards narrows gap to 4% (none / 0)

64% of precincts reporting and the gap is now fewer than 2000 votes.

Wynn 20,957 50%
Edwards 18,993 46%


by aretino on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 02:56:27 AM EST

Re: Graf clinches Republican AZ-08 (none / 0)

Up by almost 3200 votes over Huffman with only about 2,900 left to be counted, 43.2 percent to 37.2 percent.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:06:22 AM EST

Re: Cardin expands lead again (none / 0)

Cardin up by a little over 30,000 votes over Kwume, 45.11 percent to 38.35 percent, with 86 percent of precincts reporting, 1544/1793.


by InigoMontoya on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 03:11:49 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

Oh oh Edwards pulls ahead! 48.14 - 47.73 w/ 75.44% reporting


by loyalson on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 05:09:12 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

Looks like Cardin's won - with 93% of the precincts in, he's got 40,000 more votes than Mfume, out of a tad under 500,000.

But Donna Edwards leads Wynn by 216 votes!!  Only 75% reported, though...


by RT on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 05:17:28 AM EST

AZ-08 - Does Graf insure a Dem takeover? (none / 0)

I agree that Graf is the candidate that can be more easily beaten in AZ-08 due to his extreme wingnuttery. I also agree that the voters of that district appear to be moderate judging by their current representative.

But being from a district myself, NJ-05, I would not be so sure about this being a sure shot Dem takeover. My district also appears to be moderate, having had Repub Marge Roukema represent it for years. When she retired however, the district elected ultra wingnut Scott Garrett in her place who has since been re-elected although he is by far the most right wing congressman I know of - pro gun, pro Iraq, total anti-choice, voted against aid to Katrina victims, etc.

At the same time they elected this screwball my district, which is heavily Republican, went for Corzine for gov and Bush won only by a whisker in 2004.

My conclusion is that Garrett keeps winning because a large number of voters really have no clue what he is really about and don't bother to try to find out. He's a Repub so they just keep voting for him and the Dem is always so outspent that the message never gets through. Our Dem candidate, Paul Aronsohn, is fighting like hell but I know what will happen to him - the money will dry up from above shortly and once again the voters will not have any clue they are voting for the congressional equivalent of Atilla the Hun once again.

Pardon me for being such a pessimist, but unless the candidates are well funded it doesn't matter if the Repub candidate in a Repub majority registration district is the most radical right wing nutball who ever walked the Earth. People won't know it and, being lifelong Repubs, they'll vote for him.


by Jersey Devil on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 08:50:12 AM EST

Re: Second Primary Returns Thread (none / 0)

Calm down, Chris.  OF COURSE turnout wasn't high in the RI Democratic primary -- Sheldon didn't have any real challengers!  Duh!


by Phoenix Woman on Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 09:33:42 AM EST


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