Lamont 56.8
Lieberman 43.2

I think the margin will be larger than you predict, Chris, for three reasons:

1) Yesterday's Q poll overstated Joe's support (within its margin of error)

2) The likely voter models understated Lamont's advantage both with educated voters and with intensity of support

3) The Lamont ground game is going to come through!

I was just gonna post one of these.  I pick Lamont by 3-4%

Lamont 51.75%
Lieberman 48.25%

lamont 51.2
lieberman 48.8

The entire democrat machinery evens the race by a few points (I want to believe it's effective, even if it's working against us!), but it's not enough as Lamont ekes out a win.

Lamont-50.0001
Lieberman-49.9999

Every vote counts.

58-42, Lamont

Uh oh, Matt, Chris just called you a chicken.

Lamont 51.5
Lieberman 48.5

Lamont 53.1
Lieberman 46.9

A second prediction: If Lieberman loses, Stephen Colbert will say its because he didn't come on his show.

Mark my words.

Lamont: 53
Lieberman: 47

Lieberman exits the race tonight, backing Lamont, as he should.

DeStefano beats Malloy for the Dem. Gubernatorial Nomination.

Lamont 52.3
Lieberman 47.7

Lieberman runs as a Connecticut for Lieberman, and then caucuses with the Republicans. This sets the stage for his second veep run, but this one the Republican ticket.

Ehm, let's say

Lamont 56.9
Lieberman 43.1

In response to this Loserman will rally no less than 15 staffers to march with him to CT's equivalent of the Zocalo and demand a complete recount. If not granted instantly, he will phone every lobbyist he knows in DC and they will do some civil disobedience which will later evolve into a major snortfest.
Got Joementum? Hahahhaha!

Lamont 57%
Lieberman 43%

In an emotional farewell to politics Lieberman invokes the Al Gore goodbye speech and goes of to spend several months introspectively examining how thing fell apart so quickly.

OK, pessimistic...

Lieberman 53
Lamont 47

Hope this is off the mark, but I'm concerned about the one-sided, pro-Lieberman coverage over the last week...

Optimistic:

Lamont 58
Lieberman 42

Lieberman publicly maintains he will run as an independent for some time, and then drops out within a few weeks after seeing his support in the polls fall through.

Establishment candidates nearly always win.

Lieberman 51.5%
Lamont 47.5%

Just off the top of my head, in recent years... here is a list of candidates with similar energy to Lamont's who failed to meet expectations.

Nader in 2000 getting 5% - NO, ~3%

Howard Dean winning the Dem primary - NO

Matt Gonzalez winning the SF Mayoral race - NO, even with the final pre-election polls showing Gonzalez winning, he lost 52-48.

Machines are too powerful, big media is too powerful, and once inside the ballot box, enough voters will get cold feet and go for Lamont. Lieberman is comfort; Lamont is a movement and that makes too many people nervous.

I wish I was wrong but I've had a bad feeling about Lamont's chances for awhile. I really hope I'm wrong and Lamont wins but I doubt it.

Oops, that's only 99%. Ok, Lieberman 52.5%, Lamont 47.5%

Lamont  55.0,  Lieberman  45.0.

1.  The last poll was an aberration.

2.   Lamont  supports are really motivated, Joe folk are ambivalent

3.   Talked to the  Lamont  pollwatcher  at West  Woods School, Hamden.  She said it's all thumbs up for  Lamont.  No Lieberman pollwatchers present.

Lieberman's campaign insinuates that losing by only a little is a mandate for him to stay in the race.

He'll lose, but only by a little.

51.24 Lam-
48.76 Lie-

You're a chicken if you don't go to the nearest 100th.

Lamont 60.1
Lieberman 39.9

Blow out. Lieberman becomes Bush appointee.

Lamont 52
Lieberman 48

Anyone providing a greater degree of detail is just making shit up.  Lieberman's last 48 hours get him this close, but no closer -- he ran out of undecideds to flip.

Even during the halcyon days of the last Q-Poll, I was pretty sure Lamont wasn't going to win by more than 10.

So, here it is. I hope this is closer than my bets at poker or on sports.

Lamont 53 / Losermann 47

We're not going to be up that late tonight, especially on the west coast.

Liebermann is going to try and sound gracious in defeat, but he's going to come off sounding like, well, a Sore Losermann.  He'll stay in as an Independent, but he'll tank in the next poll.

I still think there is a VERY real chance he will get the GOP nomination.

Can't remember the last time the good guys won a close won, and this will be no different.  Lieberman pulls through like the bad guys always do, 52-48.

Our one chance is that he is also a democrat and therefore shares our general incompetence, so he might be the one to blow it.

I predict

Lamont 51.0%
Lieberman 50.0%

With a 1.0% Margin of Error.

Anyone know where Ned will be speaking tonight?  I'm assuming it's either New Haven or Greenwich.

So far, the average prediction is
Lamont 53.2, Lieberman 46.8.

Standard Deviation of predictions: 3.2

So, one Standard Deviation out, it is a tie.

I'm disappointed no one has been making turnout predictions.  So far, by all reports I'm getting, turnout appears to be very light.  We'll see if it picks up later in the day.

Based on my brief exit polling, Lamont wins 100-0, however I suspect that the same sample is not a true representative sample.

It is a beautiful day.  Let's get the vote out.

Lamont 51, Lieberman 49.  My gut tells me that the last few days' Lieberpalooza will have some effect.

Going on the record....

54.6 Lamont
45.2 Lieberman

CT-Sen
Lamont 52
Lieberman 48

Lieberman gives a quasi-concession speech talking about respecting the voters' opinions and input, but then turns around and announces he'll run as an independent.

Also, for the other Michiganders out there...

MI-Sen (GOP)
Bouchard 65
Butler 35

DeVos picks Butler as the Lt. Gov. runningmate.

MI-07 (GOP)
Walberg 51
Schwarz 49

MI-07 (Dem)
Strack 40
Ream 25
Renier 20
Campbell 15

MI-08 (GOP)
Rogers 75
Flynn 25

MI-09 (GOP)
Knollenberg 60
Godchaux 40

because it nearly always happens, i'm going to predict heartbreak, and try to steel myself so that it doesn't take me totally by surprise.

as such, i predict an evilman victory:

51.2 lieberclown
48.8 lamont

wow, but i hope hope hope you folks on the ground can get it done.  good work was done by all from every account i've read/heard, but that last weekend of liebermania and the 26,000 extra voters, and everything else, all just makes me so nervous.

good luck gotv!!!

55-45 Lamont.

Turnout will be good for Lamont's side.  Apathy doesn't motivate.

Lamont 50.3
Lieberman 49.6
write-ins:.1

and the mother of all recount bloodbaths.  I predict Lieberman will fight like hell in a recount bloodbath rather than concede (since if he "wins" he "wins" it all).  He will demand a recount in every precinct and accuse the (generally clean) CT electoral authorities of chicanery.

Then he will too late realize that the public grew to hate him for dragging it on, then give up wearily after his strongest supporters are sick of his whining and after he has, beyond a doubt, poisoned the well of any independent vote.  He will say he learned his lesson about fighting recounts in 2000 (!!??) to "make every vote count" (TM).  Ned will play it cool and, eventually, rise to the top, after court intervention.  

Ned will work part time while in office cleaning coffee pots and running laundry errands for Rep. Maxine Waters, who is the owner in fee simple of Ned's eternal soul after the fairly struck three-way deal between her, him and Mephistopheles.  White lawn jockeys that look like Ned will mysteriously appear in front of houses and on T-shirts in Rep. Waters' LA district and in black neighborhoods in New Haven, Bridgeport and Hartford; Waters will take offense at them and repudiate them. But Lamont will laugh, buy 10,000 of them out of household petty cash and give them out at fundraisers.  Rep. Waters' fundraisers.  Waters will get a lifetime membership in Ned's Greenwich country club.  This one's nearly a guarantee.  Al Sharpton will be offered a membership, but will decline, citing as his reason his desire not to fraternize with the hired help.

Joe goes on to annoy people on Sunday mornings full time rather than just every chance he gets.  Oh yes, he will set up the Liberal Policy Institute, dedicated to undercutting liberal policies, but in a methodical, scholarly and schoolmarmish way.  It will be well funded by the pharmaceutical industry, who will fund its construction in his district.  The District of Columbia.

A poetically just result of Joe's karma in 2000....

Put me down for Lamont double-digits, but I think the fact that it is even close is nothing short of amazing.

Friday, February 18, 2005
Lieberman Primary Challenge?
Posted by Tim Tagaris

Believe me, I would love to see it. I am a strong believer that fighting inside primaries is the best way for us to change the face of our party. We do it in presidential races, why not the Senate? Is that body not important enough?

Personally, I believe the fact we don't routinely have contested Democratic primaries on the Senate level is the fault of our national party (more on this later). This is especially true in open seats and ones with a Republican incumbent. However, some Democrats need to be put on notice as well. Unfortunately, this is why it would be so tough to take out Joementum in a contested primary (MoE +/- 3.3%)

Among Democrats:

Approve: 72%
Disapprove: 19%
DK: 9%

His numbers drop only slightly when you expand beyond Democrats only and into Republicans and Independents.

Lieberman 52.2
Lamont 47.7

Cheaters always win, and I'm always wrong.

Ya gotta believe!
Lamont by 8

Lamont 54%
Lieberman 46%

I predict a modest landslide, which will be the same as my original prediction I made about 3 weeks ago:

Lamont 55
Lieberman 45

Turnout here will definetely favor Lamont as the motivation is on his side, while apathy is on Lieberman's side.

Chris,

I agree with your prediction, except the part about the House of Lords.  I'm betting that he is an extremely well-compensated lobbyist for the CT defense industry within the year.  That will allow him to exploit his cozy relationship with the GOP types in Congress and make the big $$$$...

I do think that Lieberman is going to ultimately pull this out by the skin of his proverbial teeth. Regardless, this is still an incredible testament to not the power of the bloggers, but of the vision of the blogoshpere to empower the electorate. Lieberman 50.6, Lamont 49.4.

Lamont 51.7
Lieberman 48.3

And Matt O is right: If Lieberman loses Stephen Colbert will say it's because he didn't come on his show.

Let's do this by the hour:

9 EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

11 EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

1 am EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

3 am EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

9 am EDT: Lieberman 58 - Lamont 42

One district where the machines "have had a little trouble" go 100% for Lieberman.  All 35,000 votes are cast for Joe in a district where 2000 people are registered to vote.

Lamont, 60-40

Recent Democratic senatorial primaries of interest are Tester and Webb, which both went to the netroots supported candidate.  Webb by perhaps a slighly stronger margin than the CW, and Tester by a shocking margin.  Based on those (and ignoring other more discouraging recent results because they weren't Democratic senatorial primaries), I'll give something I consider to be an optimistic prediction.

Lamont 52.7%
Lieberman 47.1%

Turnout: 22.5% higher than normal for a Democratic senate primary in Connecticut during hot weather (presuming the heat wave is still on - I'm in Florida and our weather has been normalish for this time of year.)  That's 22.5% higher - not 22.5 points more.  So if normal turnout is 20%, I'm predicting 24.5%.

Lieberman 50.0%
Lamont 50.0%

...followed by recount hell.

Lieberman 53,5
Lamont 46,5

I'm sorry but the machine plus the national media plus the money was too much. This time.

Lamont 54.2
Lieberman 45.7

Joe will drop out tomorrow.

Liebersubparman:45.10

Lamont: 54.90