LieberCollapse

Last week I wrote a piece called 'Brute Fakery' about Lieberman's massive GOTV operation.  The premise of the piece is that the 'magic operatives' sent from DC aren't in fact made of pixy dust, and that the idea that you can hire 4000 kids and have New Jersey operatives run your field campaign in Connecticut in three weeks is insane.

Well it turns out that their plan is not working.

Word is leaking out of the campaign that efforts to hire and organize several thousand itinerant campaign workers have fallen far short of expectations and necessity. Lieberman and his battered brain trust will now have to decide whether to continue investing funds in that effort or save money for November. These primary troubles are a preview of what he can expect in his new life as an independent should he lose on Tuesday. Much of his weak campaign organization will dutifully head to the triumphant Democratic nominee or simply sit out the race.

There is a major CYA operation in effect right now in Lieberland.  Lieberman is the one responsible of course, and has probably descended into utter paranoia.  Rash decisions will follow.  He'll try a Hail Mary, and it's going to get ugly.

Update: Maura adds a sage warning.

Matt, I know you've been to a lot of events, but have you actually been on the ground? Have you seen Lieberman's field campaign in action?
I have. They're organized, they're competent, they're experienced, and they're covering a lot more ground than we are in my city.
Please hold off the crowing until we win. And we haven't won anything yet.
This race is literally neck and neck if you are actually talking to voters. I don't think it helps to crow about Lieberman's weaknesses in field when we haven't won anything.

She's right. There's a huge disconnect between events and votes. In 1988, Lieberman didn't draw crowds, and people didn't really get that he had a machine until election day.



Display:


Re: LieberCollapse (3.00 / 1)

I'm taking a day off from my state Senate campaign to go fight for Ned on Monday and Election Day.
-Patrick Schmitt
www.PatrickSchmitt.com
John McCain
by DanM on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:47:55 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)


John McCain
by DanM on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:48:24 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

What's the word on Lieberman's ad buys on Connecticut TV?  With a broken GOTV operation and down 13 points, Lieberman must go as negative as possible.  If he loses by more than a few percentage points, he's done.  D-O-N-E.  And somebody in his campaign has to know that.  In fact, if Matt doesn't see the most egregious, vicious ad against Lamont within the next 48 hours, then we'll all know Lieberman has thrown in the towel.


by Jim Treglio on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:53:38 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Isn't it too late to buy ads now?


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Actually, in a Federal election, the FCC requires that stations bump other advertisers in favor of federal candidates.  But more likely, Lieberman has already purchased the ad time, he just needs to change his ads.


by Jim Treglio on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NOT a collapse (3.00 / 4)

Why are you believing a report from a REPUBLICAN about Lieberman's perceived strength?

Matt, I know you've been to a lot of events, but have you actually been on the ground?  Have you seen Lieberman's field campaign in action?  

I have.  They're organized, they're competent, they're experienced, and they're covering a lot more ground than we are in my city.

Please hold off the crowing until we win.  And we haven't won anything yet.  

This race is literally neck and neck if you are actually talking to voters.  I don't think it helps to crow about Lieberman's weaknesses in field when we haven't won anything.


(The artist formerly known as "Maura in VA"!)
by Maura in CT on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:09:32 PM EST

Re: NOT a collapse (none / 0)

Well, it's metaphorically neck and neck.  (Just kidding around.  You're absolutely right about the urgency, Maura.)


by justinh on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NOT a collapse (none / 0)

Maura,

I understand your experience, and in the universe of talking to voters 54-41 feels like neck and neck.  But I didn't understand the reference to Matt "believing a republican" about the field strength.

Seems like the source was a columnist for the Hartford Courant that seems pretty up on Lamont.  Is he a wolf in sheeps clothing?

It is intuitive and smart that they would set extremely high goals and push everything they can (including experienced out of state staff) to try to save Lieberman.  It also then seems reasonable that this effort would fall short given that it is being done on three weeks notice without any real advance.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NOT a collapse (none / 0)

From the Hartford Courant:

Kevin Rennie of South Windsor is a lawyer and a former Republican state senator and representative.


by aldon on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NOT a collapse (none / 0)

Who better to know about Lieberman than a Republican?  But the point is made: Lieberman has nothing to lose right now.  Expect the worst.


by Jim Treglio on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:41:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This diary is really confusing nt (none / 0)


by jondevore on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:57:16 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Thanks for clarifying the source.


Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra
by Orlando on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 06:59:00 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (1.00 / 1)

Why are you guys trying to lose a Democratic seat? If Lieberman loses, he will win the general election as an independent and the Dems will have one less Senate seat. Way to go.

Like Jonathan Alter (Newsweek) wrote - go after Republican seats, not Democratic ones.


by stevemart on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 08:02:52 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

We are trying to lose a Democratic seat because we hate the world.  What did you think?


by Winston Smith on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 08:10:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LieberCollapse (3.00 / 1)

If Lieberman loses the primary by the amount that he's supposedly down by in the Q-poll, he won't win the general.  Losing by 10 points is bad, but more than 10 points is getting your ass kicked.  Nobody comes back from that kind of beating.

And keep in mind that Lieberman will have to build ground support on his own.  That's not something he's ever had to do before.  Everyone who supported him previously will back away, or focus on other races.  Do you think Clinton would come to Connecticut when he can play up Pennsylvania, Nevada, Missouri, etc.?

What Lieberman will be doing in the next few days is to try to get within 5 points.  Within 5 points, he has a legitimate shot of holding support for the general.  That's when Alter's point becomes reality.

But the thing is, this race is entirely new.  Incumbents don't lose for ideological reasons in primaries.  And Lieberman isn't just losing, he's getting his ass kicked.  Conventional wisdom be damned.


by Jim Treglio on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 08:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Welcome to MyDD.  I would encourage you to read previous comments about this such as this one.

As you will see, the polls and trends indicate that Lamont will most likely win the General if he wins the primary, and there is almont no chance that the Republican will win.


by aldon on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 08:28:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LieberCollapse (3.00 / 5)

Here is a first hand account of what happens when Lieberman's kids decide to crash a party. I arrived early at a local diner to attend a Ned meet and greet that had been well-publicized on the Lamont website. I sat at the counter with my daughter trying to stay cool while we waited for Ned to arrive.
A large contingent of young people arrived and trooped into the diner (this is a TINY place) and promptly took over every seat and booth. Some of them were wearing Lamont buttons. I noticed that the young man next to me had a t-shirt sticking out of his pocket.
Sure enough, as soon as Ned arrived, EVERY ONE of them donned their Lieberman t-shirts. Very sneaky!! Then the heckling started. Although Ned was clearly caught in an ambush, he handled it with grace and professionalism. One very loud and obnoxious Liebercreep asked him "Are you a Bill Clinton Democrat or an Al Sharpton Democrat?" Ned's response was perfect - he said that he is a Democrat and he has respect for both Bill and Al. One of these nice young people offered the comment that "George W Bush had a higher GPA at Yale than Kerry did". I told him that I thought this was a DEMOCRATIC primary and was he actually in support of Bush???? It was surreal. Another kid who said he was 18 offered that he was hoping he could "go fight in Baghdad 5 years from  now". The discussion poured out onto the sidewalk. Debates between factions began, the gist of which was: Lamont supporters - "Joe doesn't represent CT voters anymore" Lieberman supporters - "This isn't just about Iraq". One of them said they were "from the Washington DC office" but "some of us are local". Could these have been the Young Republicans everyone has been writing about? Sure looked/sounded that way to me.
BTW - this is my first blog entry ever. Ned Lamont is energizing "regular" people like me in a way that I haven't seen in years. My middleaged husband was holding up a Lamont sign on the street yelling "Joe must go!" It was beautiful.
by medea226 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 08:30:46 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Wow.

I just-- wow.


Tim Wolfe
by bruorton on Fri Aug 04, 2006 at 08:45:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LieberCollapse (3.00 / 1)


Don't believe all the hype about "seasoned" & "organized" labor volunteers.  I worked on the California Special Election last year.  Trust me, most of the union people only come out because they are REQUIRED to do so by their local.  Many of them are not great spokespeople on the issues.  And they are only as organized as their political rep. is.

Ned Lamont has passionate volunteers who know the issues and are doing this because they want to.  They are not just warm bodies  to leave doorhangers on election eve.  They can persuade voters, not just talk at them.  And they will do more work than their cursory three-hour shift.

Unless Ned's GOTV is a complete train wreck, he will win.  Lieberman has been exposed.  No amount of doorhangers or phone calls from the Lieberhacks will change that.  GO NED!


by stuckinsf on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 09:07:19 PM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (none / 0)

Medea--I've read other descriptions but yours is the clearest indication that these were some of the Young Republicans coming out in "support" of Lie-berman. A brownshirt in any other shirt remains a brownshirt. Or, as I almost typed, "brownshit."


by DrBB on Fri Aug 04, 2006 at 12:34:16 AM EST

Re: LieberCollapse (3.00 / 1)

  I have been phone-banking for my union,SEIU Local 1199,in support of John Destefano.About 90% of the people I spoke with wanted to talk about Ned Lamont instead.
  The consensus seemed to be that Lieberman is in hock to Big Business and had lost touch with people here in Ct.Of course I agreed to vote for Ned if they would vote for John.
  I have been reading a lot of foolishness about liberal elites,anti-war leftists,and over-educated bloggers being Joe's only problem.
  We are group home workers making about $30,000 a year,caring for folks who are differantly developed,probably 50% non-whites,lot of single parents,bet there ain't a Ph.D amongst us.
  I have never seen more folks planning to vote in a non-presidential year.Never mind in a primary.
   
by wobbly on Fri Aug 04, 2006 at 12:57:14 AM EST


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