I want you to be wrong about WY-AL but you're probably right to have put it where you did. Nonetheless, no one should be surprised if they wake up on Wednesday morning and Barbara Cubin is out.

One of the most interesting aspects of the primaries was how low the turnout was. About 40%. That may not sound bad in other places but, in WY, that's miniscule. Against that, consider that in 2004, we had 104% turnout. (Same day registration) Now, of course, with that high turnout in 2004, we almost certainly have some bloated voter rolls against which this 2006 number is based. But precinct people all over the state were saying that turnout was incredibly light. Since Repubs are such a high percentage of the voting base -- and the Repub primary was, in effect, deciding our Secretary of State since no Dem entered the race -- I can only take this as a sign of very little enthusiasm on the R side. (Dems had virtually nothing to motivate their primary vote; many would have switched parties for the day to vote for SoS and against Cubin. It's a tradition.)

I've been waiting impatiently since a week ago Thursday for the results of a Rasmussen poll in which I participated on all the major races. If it shows Trauner as close as the former poll, or closer, then I start to believe Cubin really is endangered.

One other interesting on-the-ground fact:  the state Republican Party is going negative, broadcasting radio ads about Freudenthal's purchase of a plane that the Casper Star-Tribune called a "lie." Today, a letter to the editor from a couple of registered Repubs took them to task for it and said that that wasn't the way Wyoming Repubs behaved. This is part of the dynamic that also happened in 2002 that helped propel Freudenthal into the governorship.

Remember also that Cubin's 2004 vote total was something like 16% below Bush's. And Freudenthal should help Trauner.

Nonetheless, you've probably got it pegged right. We're uber-red but we're discontent.  

Sorry to be cranky, but why is this in PDF? It's not searchable on the web, or linkable, I have to download it to look at it, and it isn't dynamic.

Wonderful data, though!

Could you explain in a bit more depth (once you catch your breath) why a seat with polling already putting the Dem ahead would not be rated as leaning Dem?  Is there a reason you expect these to tighten, particularly in a supposed wave?

Let me be the first to bitch that MFR (My Favorite Race) is not included.  NC-08 has Kissell just a few points down with almost no name recognition versus an incumbent with high name rec.  The DCCC is soon to push cash at this race.  And, the 8th was drawn by Dems to be won by Dems.  

Good stuff though.

Great work Chris. As for my MFR bitch, not only is CA-04 competitive, but I'll be you a beer Charlie Brown wins.

Two quick comments:

1. The only thing you might also include (which really does not need to be there because I know where to get it) is the 2004 presidential vote percentages for the CD. CQpolitics has this on their interactive map (which is freaking awesome) and it's the only place where I've seen this info. The PVI is nice, but I never quite know how it's calculated. I like seeing the '04 prez vote because in "red" districts I think it gives a nice snapshot of maximum republican percentages in a national election.

2. Love the TX-22 note.

Wouldn't a wiki be good for this sort of thing?  That way people with first hand knowledge of a district could keep others up to date.

Good job.  These are really hard to do, so I will forgive the fact that I needed a magnifying glass to read it.

My suggestions:  I think you are not optimistic enough about IN-02.  Polls have shown Donnelly ahead of Chocola  I think the one you show eas the R internal and the D poll had Donnelly ahead by 10 pts.  There is general dissatisfaction with the GOP in IN.  IN belongs in tier 1, if not tier 0.

WA-08 didn't look that close, but things will hopefully get better.  

Anyway, good job.

I'd also promote NH-02, OH-15 and VA-02 out of Tier 2, leaving the not looking too good races like NY-20 and NJ-07.  I think AZ-05 and CO-04 are closer as well.  

And  16-25 looks about right.  It could go as low as 10 if things take a turn for the worse for us, but could go as high as 30-33 if they turn for the better.

fantastic work, chris!

a slight quibble---i'm as eager as anybody to see the house change hands, but i gotta tell you, i am in ct-02, and from the ground here, courtney is generating zero interest. and check out the "meet joe" page on his website:

...named the "Most Conscientious" and the "Democrat Most Admired by Republicans."

this is a recommendation????

Have you looked at the MI-09 race with Nancy Skinner up against 14-year incumbent Joe Knollenberg? Her campaign commissioned a poll that showed her only 4 per cent behind Knollenberg (44%-40%).

And IA-02 seems out of place.  Leach is returned year after year.  Unless this challenger is relaly something special, the huge PVI and small warchest aren;t going to make any difference, as usual.

But what about MI-09 and WA-05?  Should at least be on the radar, along with CA-04.  The latter two would go in Tier 3, but MI-09 might rate higher. And agree about NC-08.  At least in Tier 3.  

Isn't Ciro Rodriguez the the one challenging Bonilla? Cuellar should be representing the 28th, unless the redistricting is just messing things up (again).

Chris,

I think you might be underestimating PA-10 a tad.
The voters there seem to be really angry at Sherwood. First for the affair and the associated domestic violece and second for lying about it.
His GOP primary opponent, a virtual unknown, drew
45% of the vote, especially noteworthy as we have a closed primary system. Plus the NE is one of the stronger parts of the state where there's a generalized anti-incumbent mood.

Carney is in pretty good shape financially and all he really has to do is prove himself an acceptable alternative and he'll win. I see this as very similar to Holden vs Gekas in PA-17 4 yrs ago.

I think this seat is at least the equal of PA-07 and 08.

I'd consider bumping up OH-15 and ID-01.  With Ted Strickland leading by 25 points at the top of the ticket, there will be considerable coattails.  The GOP is poison in Ohio right now, and I think Pryce will be a casualty of their taint.

Sali sure has been getting a lot of bad press too in ID-01.

Double-check my recollection, but I think there's a typo on GA-12: Burns won in 2002, not 2004. It was Barrow who won in 2004.

You have had two posts up- one about what you would like to see Congress do, and now one Forecasting that you expect to see a small majority- here's my question: What do  you think a bare majority means in terms of the next Congress being a governing majority that can get anything done? What does this suggest to you in terms of where the power will shift? It seems as I have said that with your predictions this puts the centrists at the head of the table.

Cook has this race as "likely competitive" but you left it off tier 3.  Democratic John Pavich, an ex-CIA agent, has a good story to tell and has raised over $450,000 in a district that's only -1 for Dems. Plus, Weller is unpopular.

Excellent work.  I really love this kind of analysis.  I'm doing what I can locally to win locally, but also contribute nationally to races where I feel it can be most effective.  Your work is a great tool.  

I also really like how you project gains per category.  16 toss-ups, and you project 8-12.  16 lean R and you project 1-6.  Makes a lot of sense, and is something others (Cook, Rothenberg, etc.) never do.  

A nit:  As a pdf, I can read it fine on screen, but whenever I try to print, it makes to font so small, it is hard to read.  Is that me, or how the document is set up?  

This is absolutely great.  It will serve as a core for my own House race tracking that I was going to start this week or next, using the Cook Report and CQ as well.

But, Jesus, Chris...hubris.   I could read that sized print when I was 30, too.   As it is now, I have to hold it two feet away to focus on it and then the print is really small.

How about reformatting the report with larger type so that those of us related to Obi Wan Kenobi can read it relatively easily?

(I can still read body language but only in Braille.)

Just congratulations on doing all of this.  It's a wonderful asset. --sandra

Based on polling data, you have to put CO-06 in the same category as CO-04. Winter will match or beat Tancredo on fund-raising. He will be on-the-air in a few days to build name recognition, and has an extensive ground operation already underway.

CO-06 is very similar in demographics and attitudes to the northern Virginia suburbs that went blue for Tim Kaine last year.

See Bill's latest diary.

Edit: In the Notes on IL-06, you misspelled Cegelis as "Cegalis".

Here's my $.02 on the WI-08 race:
I'm running for Assembly to replace Gard in the Assembly, so I've talked to a lot of people within the 8th CD.

First, let me assure you that one of the reasons Gard stayed in office was the fact the Democrats haven't put a real opponent against him in many years.

He isn't as popular as people outside this area think. The fact that Bush had to come raise money for him when he has a primary opponent should be a tip that he's not a sure bet. Many Republicans will be voting for his opponent because they are sick of the way he ran a scandal laden Assembly.

Many Democrats will be voting for his primary opponent (Terri McCormick) because there are very few areas around here that have Democrats running for local offices. The perception is that you need to be a Republican to win (we'll prove this false this year). As such, Democrats will be voting in the Republican primary so they can vote for sheriff (eg.) and will be voting against Gard.

As far as the Democratic side goes: Kagen had a huge lead due to his early TV time. He has an extensive field network and signs everywhere. Nancy Nusbaum has very extensive name recognition due to her many years in public office - however, not all this recognition is good. She's had a ton of support through Emily's List, but the field work has been lacking (from what I can see). Jamie Wall has a ton of money donated through ActBlue. He's sat on this until two weeks ago, when he released a barrage of TV and print ads.

To me, our primary is about as tight as the Republicans' race. I won't reveal who I'm voting for, but IMHO neither side is has a candidate with a lock on the nomination.

You're right on with NY-19 (Sue Kelly).  Winnable, but prospects are hampered by the late primary.  Ben Shuldiner - my horse in the race - is continuing his strong grassroots campaign and Judy Aydelott has just sent out two mass mailings.  John Hall has gotten some press lately for his fundraising concerts, but has not been very visible outside of some robo-calls.  Whoever wins the primary will have their hands full as Sue already has already aired TV ads in the district and is visibly campaigning.

All these are good news if the Republicans dont tamper with the voting machines we may take back the house. But some of theses people are so crooked by the time its in the court its too late.

I just got back from a trip to Arizona, where I worked (in politics) for a couple of years. Here's what I have to add to your (great!) race ranking:

AZ01: Napolitano won't have coattails. Renzi is popular in that district for two reasons: 1)he's played to the native vote (the Navajo reservation is  in his district) and 2) his district has huge chunks of rural, wingnut territory. He'll probably win again, but he's got some problems--he represents Flagstaff, a very liberal area, and rumor has it that the natives are getting fed up with Renzi's talk (an no action). So if he looses big chunks of native support that might be all it takes to get rid of him.

AZ05: JD Hayworth is a former sportscaster who represents the largely Republican leaning territory of east Phoenix. But he also represents Tempe, home to Arizona State U, and has some ties to Abramoff. the local activists are getting excited about the prospect of beating him. Hayworth's big selling point around those parts is that he's a Republican; he really hasn't made a name for himself at all, hasn't done much, and isn't too smart (former career). In a dem year, with a guy who's claim to fame is being of the same party as W, he might be really in trouble. He'll have a real hard time moving away from the GOP and convincing Arizonans that he's got something of his own going on.

It's a strangely common error.

Heath Shuler NOT Heath Schuler.  There's no 'c'.

As someone who discovered this site looking for good polling data and analysis in early 2004, I appreciate the emphasis on returning to these issues.  A few comments:

Find a way to present the data in a more user friendly format, that pdf was nigh on unreadable for this semi-political geek.  I want tables or maps, with mouseover, etc.  I know it is tons of work, just letting you know what I think would be ideal.  Getting it into html with hot links on terms so I can look up what they mean would be a start.

Present the core data objectively, pull aside any partisan discussion to a secondary area.  Make it clear that you are trying your best to formulate an accurate prediction with this stuff, not trying to sway the electorate.

Add some specific analysis in this area.  I'm interesting in polling, procedures, results, and implications.  The occasional partisan process post is ok, but I find that the torrents of strategy information here tend to push me away, and I agree with most of it, it is just too much.  Numbers on the other hand, I can deal with all day.

Just some thoughts.  I appreciate the effort.  Look back at what you were doing with the electoral college stuff a couple years ago and think about how to maintain the class and quality of those simple roots.  I can't put my finger on it, but I think that as the site has grown it has gotten away a bit from what I initially found appealing.  If I stumbled on this site today I probably wouldn't have bookmarked it.  Of course I've always thought of myself as independant.  I'm only a Democrat at the moment because of Bush et al.

I saw a story on www.bigbark.net last night about Democrats in tough races having to shy away from a troop withdrawl timetable to win over centrists. Republicans are going to be howling cut and run until Nov.

Hey Chris great job on the house races. Mate did you see the Siena poll today for NY-20?

It has Sweeney up 53-34 OUCH!

I checked the internals and the party reg seems about right too!!!

The survey usa WA 8 poll hit my optimism somewhat but this poll makes me feel gutted.

Link to the poll at the 50 state page BTW.

With all the talk about Charlie Melancon, Charles Boustany has slipped off the screen.  Boustany is a freshman who won against a divided Democratic party with just 55% of the vote.  His district had been represented by Democrat Chris Johns.  A fair number of evacuees are here giving a further boost to the Democrat.  Certainly not a probable but maybe a Tier 3.

Farrell ran in 2004 and Courtney ran in 2002. Both came very close in their previous runs.

Minor Corrections:

Courtney (CT-2), Farrell (CT-4), Cranley (OH-1) and Busby (CA-50) are 2nd runs. Collins (GA-8) is as well, but just for parts of the redistricted district. Romero (LA-3) as well, but he didn't get into the runoff.

Bilbray (CA-50) and Kuhl (NY-29) are freshmen.

Fantastic job, Chris. That was a ton o' work.  Thanks for doing it. H/T to you.

I'll have some horse race data on AZ-08 and AZ-05 next month. I'll check with my client to make sure it's OK, it will be, and then forward the results to you.

Thanks again, Chris. Just great work, man.

Larry Grant, the ID-01 candidate, was named a Netroots Challenger yesterday morning (thanks, everyone!). I was busy monitoring the action at Kos yesterday and missed this post. I'm not sure Chris will see this to respond, but Chris, I am curious: What prompts you to say you feel you may be too optimistic by a tier in the ID-01 race?

After all, Charlie Cook has had us in the "likely Republican" tier since early summer (before that, we weren't even ON the Cook chart, so this is progress, I guess). Still, we are mystified why we're not moving into the Lean Rep category when the national GOP is so clearly worried about this seat, enough to send Dick Cheney and Dennis Hastert to Idaho within the space of eight days! It's mindboggling at this point to see someone say they may be too optimistic calling this a likely Rep seat.

I've written more at a diary, "Why Larry Grant can win in ID-01":

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/29/1134 3/2092

I am not too sure tha Lamperson is going to win this I think for the first time in history a district my be Leaning Libertarian

You've done a good job with this. Guess you've spent many hours on it. Hope you'll be able to make it an html file, that would be great!