MyDD :: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insurgent

GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insurgent

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:30:06 PM EST

Last week I mentioned, while covering the latest Iowa '08 caucus poll for the GOP, that Newt Gingrich wasn't listed even though it appears a top contender. It looks like too, that Gingrich is gaining momentum among the Republican netroots. Compare the July and the August poll results among Republican bloggers, and this is notable:

*Gingrich moved from a 1% net favorable to a 40% net favorable, clearly showing favorable movement.

*George Allen moved from a 31% net favorable to a 26% net favorable after his Macaca remarks, showing this hasn't impacted his '08 candidacy to the same extent as it has hurt his '06 reelection campaign (though I'm sure it hurts him in fundraising).

*Sam Brownback moved 10% in the favorable direction; Tancredo moved 15% in the favorable direction; Huckabee moved 9% in the favorable direction. This doesn't mean much, except that they are all still around the starting gate, but a darkhorse candidacy amongst one of them might emerge.

*Frist (at -40%), Hagel (at -54%), Pataki (at -52%) can basically write-off having a widespread base of online activists.

*Romney moved from a 10% net favorable to a 36% net favorable, and Giuliani moved from a 20% net favorable to a 40% net favorable rating. Both impressive, though smaller moves than that of Gingrich.

*McCain is flat, at a net unfavorable 33% from 34% unfavorable a month ago.

Here are the first choice numbers:



Giuliani      24%
Gingrich      21%
Romney        13%
Allen         12%
Tancredo       7%
McCain         6%
Brownback      3%
Hagel          3%
Huckabee       2%
Frist          1%
Pataki         0%

They don't have the first-choice numbers from a month ago, but in August, the net movers (compared to the phone polling done) shows the candidacy of Gingrich is alive on the net; that Romney is gaining traction; Giuliani is having the strongest online/offline crossover; and McCain is trailing Tancredo in online support.

Gingrich moving probably hurts Allen the most, and Romney moving up probably hurts Giuliani the most overall, and McCain in New Hampshire. Giuliani is going to be target-rich if he decides to run, and I would expect someone like Brownback or Tancredo to aim at him to gain recognition.

Tags: Newt Gingrich, Republican Presidential Nominee (all tags)

Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

Please give us serial adulterer Gingrich!

The fundies will love him!

by TimO on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:18:00 PM EST

No kidding (none / 0)

My goodness, we couldn't ask for a better nominee :) Please, please, please give us Newt!

by jonweasel on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 04:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tom Tancredo for President! (none / 0)

Man, I'd volunteer to pound the pavement for him! Having him in the race would be the best thing since Ross Perot.

by Sam Loomis on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 04:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (none / 0)

How much do GOP bloggers actually matter?

I mean seriously.

by js noble on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:37:17 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (none / 0)

I'm certain they are ahead, numbers-wise, what the numbers of Dean supporters were in 2002 and early 2003, when it certainly mattered. But given it's a diffuse polling of them, less so for sure, but probably of note to mark any difference from the offline polling being done. I think such divergences are important early on to see what might be brewing.

by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (none / 0)

I'm not talking about size so much as organization. Obviously bloggers will endorse primary candidates but do you expect to see the same kind of fundraising and buzz come out of the internet for Gincrich (or some other candidate) as did for Dean in 2004? The Right hasn't been especially adept at raising money online so far and I don't see the same activist culture on GOP blogs as I do Democratic ones.

Also, is there any reason to think that GOP bloggers have different opinions from Republican activists who aren't online? Those numbers don't look all that different from the nationwide polls I've seen. (Whereas if you did a similar poll of Democratic bloggers the results would probably be very different from nationwide polling of Democrats.)

by js noble on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (none / 0)

It could generate a buzz, I think it's pretty newsworthy that Gingrich is placing second in the online polls among Republicans. Raising money is a different matter. The evangelicals would turn on the spigot of small donors, if someone on the right is able to tap into that online network-- probably more through political outreach and some social networking over their significan listserve networks, than through blogging. I don't think campaign blogs will be very significant at all in '08.

by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 12:30:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Gingrich as insurgent (3.00 / 1)

Please God, let the nominee be Gingrich....

by global yokel on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:43:32 PM EST

Wow Pataki at 0%!! (none / 0)

Hero to zero in just a few years, that's beautiful.

-C.

by neutron on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:44:43 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insu (none / 0)

I am amazed that Tancredo even has 7%, that is a really scary thing.

by Lizzy on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 02:47:20 PM EST

Gore v. Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

This would be the most interesting contest from an issues standpoint.

Much less boring than Mark v. Mitt, or McCain v. Hillary, or Edwards v. anyone.

Seriously, the GOP bench is really, really thin after McCain, who will be 72 in 2008. Has anyone noticed?

by Mimikatz on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:04:49 PM EST

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

I think these things are somewhat cyclical. The Dems were pretty thin in years like 1988 and 2004 but we had more robust choices in 1992 and 2008 (or so it appears). A lot of it has to do with the preceding cycles and who runs strong in them. The Dems have been doing much better on the state level the past few cycles despite our losses on the federal levels and that is the farm team. 2006 may end up providing us with some excellent talent for years like 2012 and 2016.

by John Mills on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

I agree it's cyclical, but really no party has more than one or two good candidates every cycle. Sometimes there are zero, like the Dems in 1988 and the Repubs in 1996.

I have to disagree about 1992 being a deep year for Dems. Outside of Clinton, there was nobody. Cuomo did not run (and I sincerely think would have lost), Brown was a joke and Tsongas (sp?) was bland, bland, bland.

by Eric11 on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 09:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

I was including Cuomo, Gore and Gephardt in the depth even none of them ran in the end. All were in the mix at this point and Clinton was a bit of an after thought which is kind of ironic.

They were all scared off by Bush I's poll number which were high but had no depth. People thought Bob Kerrey was going to be a strong contender but he couldn't connect with people.

by John Mills on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 10:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

Well, Romney is going to be around for awhile, even if he does not win in 2008. It's really early to predict what will happen in 2008, let alone later. I mean basically nobody had any idea who Bill Clinton was before the fall of 1991, let alone the late 1980s.

Just me prediction, but I think McCain has zero chance of gaining the nomination. Zero. The far right won't support him, Guiliani is going to squeeze him from the "left" and frankly many moderates don't trust him. I think the biggest story during the early going of the primary season in 2008 will be "how did McCain fall so far so fast."

by Eric11 on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 09:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

Agree. I think we will see someone like Huckabee or Romney. Allen was a real possibility until the "macacca" coment but he is through now. I am giddy he might lose his Senate seat although I suspect he will pull through with a narrow victory in the end. He had better like the Senate because it is as far as he is going.

I know McCain has strengths but Govs always worry me more than Sens. Historically, Govs do much better in Pres races than Senators.

by John Mills on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 10:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

I think Romney has got a real good chance. Can play up the "governor from a blue state" meme. He has also built up a pretty good network in Iowa and New Hampshire. Right now, Allen and Romney have the inside track. Allen is not done yet.

Romney's religion will be a problem though, no matter what the Republican Party says in public.

by Eric11 on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 10:56:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore v. Gingrich (none / 0)

Agree with both of those statements.

Southern Baptists and Mormons just don't get along. The popular conception is of a monolithic Religious Right, and politically that's generally true. But many Southern Baptists don't consider Mormons to be Christian and think their aggressive evangelizing is pulling people away from Christianity. They have no problems with working with, say, Orrin Hatch on political questions, but I'd be surprised if they could jump in with Romney for the nomination.

And when we say "evangelical Christians," it's Southern Baptists far more than anything else ...

by BriVT on Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 09:24:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP bloggers lining up... (none / 0)

I recently did a post about a GOP straw poll I found that had similar results.
You can see it America's Least Wanted While you're there, check out my other stuff.

by budpaul on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:25:33 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insu (none / 0)

Does McCain get the same brand of criticism from the right that we give Lieberman? Is the problem that he gives Dems cover by not treading the party line all the time, and isn't afraid to criticize from time to time, or is it something else?

by Lucas O'Connor on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:52:41 PM EST

Psychosphere is creaming their pants for war (none / 0)

It's no surprise the online types would go for Gingrich with his WWIII rhetoric. They are yearning for war and conquest. They don't care so much about social policy or whatever, they are neocons first and foremost.

by delmoi on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 03:56:27 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich (none / 0)

Gingrich is a brilliant political strategist but he is my dream candidate for President. He is completely undisciplined in front of the camera and is guaranteed to say something to piss off a wide group of people. The Repubs know that and will never nominate him.

by John Mills on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 04:00:50 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insu (none / 0)

Oh, for Jeebus' sake! Gingrich served his wife with divorce papers (or just told her, I forget) while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery.

He twice left a wife for another woman.

These right wing nutjobs have no morality or sense of shame at all.

Powerful people often cheat on their spouses, and that sucks. But how they deal with their weakness is an indication of their relative worth.

Clinton cheated on his wife, but they worked it out and stayed together. Gingrich just said "Fuck you" to his family and walked away like a coward.

by nathan on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 04:08:28 PM EST

Re: GOP bloggers lining up behind Gingrich as insu (none / 0)

If any GOPer has the ability to build a powerful online following among conservatives - it's Gingrich. He's accessible, candid, is an unabashed techno-futurist, and will dominate every GOP debate start to finish.

by blueflorida on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 04:21:55 PM EST

GOP calls (3.00 / 1)

I'm not sure the Gingrich #'s are omething to be happy about. GOoPers have an institutional amnesia about such things. Plus, I doubt the MSM would delve too far into his infidelity for fear of rethug retribution.
Expect kid gloves if he gets the nod. My calls:
Giuliani 24% can he survive primaries?
Gingrich 21% ditto to Giuliani
Romney 13% Mormonism=liability?
Allen 12% dead in the water for now
Tancredo 7% sleeper? Let's hope.
McCain 6% wingnut mistrust
Brownback 3% suffering from fundie fatigue?
Hagel 3% too McCain like + anti war
Huckabee 2% another sleeper (scary though)
Frist 1% too many missteps
Pataki 0% Giuliani stole his fire

by Da Rat Bastid on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 05:02:14 PM EST

Guiliani's got a secret weapon... (none / 0)

...and it's not 9/11, it's the corpse of Amadou Diallo.

The people who are primarily looking for someone who will keep The Other in line -- a not-inconsiderable share of GOP primary voters -- are going to ooch towards the mini-Mussolini.

He'll pick up a lot of Allen voters. He may not be a Southerner, but you can look at his record in NYC and know he's O.K. on th

by Davis X Machina on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 05:19:52 PM EST

Re: Guiliani's got a secret weapon... (3.00 / 1)

I think you're close, but not quite there, myself.

I think Allen's lost support not so much because he's being seen as racist by that portion of the public that cares at the moment, so much as he was caught in the act and hasn't been able to shake off or trivialize the accusations. (And they are relatively easy stuff for a good sleaze merchant to shake off if desired.)

The Republicans will line up behind Satan himself if he's seen as a candidate that can win. Allen is on the verge of being dogmeat for that very reason. Gingrich...I can't really explain Gingrich, other than he's being seen as a winning personality. (And yes, he'll probably crash and burn too once he puts his foot in it, and he will.)

by palamedes on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 07:42:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gingrich (none / 0)

I wouldn't be surprised to see a real groundswell among conservatives for Gingrinch after they are booted from power in both Houses of Congress this year. Gingrinch will no doubt attempt to evoke the memory of the 1994 Congressional takeover and how the conservative movement was betrayed by the some Republicans and needs to get back to his Contract now that those Republicans have been punished by conservatives.

by msstaley on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 09:23:40 PM EST

Re: Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

Totally agree. This is why we need him to run. He will remind everyone how conservatism is bankrupt and that the Republican Party has lost its way. The guy is a walking talking advertisment for why the public should vote Democratic in 2008.

He will inflame the internal divisions that lay just beneath the skin within the Republican Party, and I am going to love every single second of it.

by Eric11 on Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 09:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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