Did Zogby's bio mention he is a DLC'er?

McCain has been out in Iowa "campaigning" on a platform of cutting back farm subsidies and other "pork" and opposing ethanol subsidies.  Iowa Democrats killed Bill Bradley's campaign by dropping him 20 points based on opposition to ethanol.  McCain's attempt to re-establish his maverick persona should not work in Iowa.

As for Rudy, well, I think he's too New York.  Midwesterners have played better than either easterners or west coasters in Iowa.  Huckabee and Brownback definitely have a chance to shine here.

The 2000 caucus was basically resolved early at the pay-to-play straw poll in August 2003. (voters literally pay a specified donation to the State Republican Party to choose their favorite candidate.  Hardly harmless, given the actual stakes although the campaigns pony up the fee, transportation costs, etc.) George W. was basically crowned at the State Fair like the prize cow.  A year from now, the front-runner will be anointed.  Shouldn't this be outlawed by the poll tax amendment to the US Constitution?

I took 10/1 on Guiliani winning their nod a few weeks ago. On a couple of balanced political sites I post on, McCain is despised by the Repubican posters while the moderate Republicans and the hard right wingers love Rudy. He wins every poll in a landslide.

I guess we'll continue to dismiss that and embrace conventional wisdom rationale that he'll never be nominated due to issues.

Meanwhile, the doubt that Hilary's poll lead will translate into the nomination is based on the belief she will be rejected due to electability. That hardly applies to Rudy. In fact, just the opposite. Poster after poster from the GOP on those balanced sites is emphasizing their top priority is to win, and Rudy is the best chance at that.

And if you look at the Strategic Vision state polls, Rudy is blowing out McCain everywhere. The only state he doesn't lead McCain is Michigan. Strategic Vision came out with a Georgia poll today and Rudy leads McCain 30-20.

Its going to be Huckabee. He's got the evangelical conservative cred and the people skills to win. Its all about whether he can assemble a good team, and he's got a lot of free time to do that.

its Huckabee vs. Warner or Edwards in 2008. I've been thinking about this a lot lately. I want to put money on this in Las Vegas ASAP.

I don't think Rudy will be as strong in a general election as many predict him to be. The guy has way too many skeletons in his closet and his associates aren't of the greatest character, i.e. Bernie Kerik.

I think Romney has to be considered a non factor in as much the envangelicals would not support a mormon. If I were betting, I would put my money on Huckabee and/or Brownback.

Don't underestimate Romney. He's attractive and clever and filthy rich. I think he might find a way to make his Mormonism go away (or at least fade into invisibility) if that's what it took - or, alternately, the evangelicals he's wooing might find a way to make it go away. There's an awful lot of overlap on the issues, and sectarian differences haven't stopped the evangelicals from trying to woo the Catholic voters to an ad hoc alliance on abortion, gays, etc. They just might be amenable to a deal with a Mormon devil if it means continuing their influence on the White House.

Don't get me wrong. I can't stand the man, a plastic, phony Ken-doll and an opportunist who screwed the Republican incumbent (the hapless Jane Swift) out of a shot at a second elected term, swore up and down that yes, he really, really didn't want to be Governor of Massachusetts as a stepping stone to national political prominence - and then, once he was past the halfway mark in his first term, started touring the country and giving speeches about how Massachusetts was a bastion of liberal perfidy.

Fuck Romney and the elephant he rode in on. I fart in his general direction.

McCain - if you consider him to be the GOP frontrunner - is the weakest frontrunner they've had since Ford in '76 (and probably since Rockefeller in '64). There's clearly going to be one or two main insurgent challenges to him. The three likeliest at this point are: Romney,  Romney is putting into place the staff, political support, and money to go the distance and be in contention in early '08. Gingrich will live and die by his supreme rhetorical skill - and there's no prominent national republican figure who has so fully embraced the political use of the internet. Allen, despite the deep embarrassment of the 'macaca incident' is still very viable as a presidential candidate. Allen is still the most credible as the natural heir of Reagan and Bush. Allen is also a populist who powerfully speaks to conservative populist anti-tax, anti-immigrant, and anti-liberal themes.

Huckabee is every liberal's guilty pleasure - he's a real nice and funny guy. Huckabee, however, doesn't have two nickels to rub together. Unless he manages to change that - and fast - he's not going to be anything other than an asterisk. There's not even the slightest indicator that he will be able to do that. Same with Brownback. In fact, I think Brownback won't even run.

....is that the religous right / social conservatives do most of the grunt work for the Republicans, and they're already cranky about W these days.  If the Dems do well in the 2006 midterms, they'll be even more so.

Guliani, McCain...they just won't get the energy they need from their base should they be forced through to the nomination.

Huckabee is the one to watch.  He's very, very dangerous.  If he gets the grunts to work hard for him, no amount of logic will get Guliani or McCain to the finish line without severe wounds at best, and maybe not at all.

My two bits...

I think the Republicans are going to nominate one of the following, in order of probabilty:

1. John McCain - He is wooing the base, sewing up old wounds, and saying all the right things.

2. Mitt Romney - There are some Republicans who think that he is the (R) version of John Kennedy, but according to them, Romney has "morals." Like Kennedy, his religion would be an issue in any campaign.
   
3. Mike Huckabee - This guy is quite the charmer. He is a popular governor from a small state called Arkansas, likes cameras, is known for his enthusiasm and speaking ability... sounds alot like a certain former president.

Democratic Nevada 2008 caucus (online poll)

I started an online poll on a liberal Nevada blog a few days ago.  Many of the readers of this blog were heavily debating the recent Gubanatorial Primary here in Nevada, so they're no doubt likely voters (and looking forward to the 2008 caucus).  Yes, this is very unscientific and way too early to be very reliable but the results are interesting nonetheless:

If the 2008 Nevada Presidential caucus were held today, which candidate would you choose?
                       #        %
Tom Vilsack            0        0%
Evan Bayh             4        2%
Bill Richardson   38      23%
John Edwards    29      17%
Hillary Clinton      20      12%
Wesley Clark     29      17%
John Kerry             3        1%
Mark Warner       16        9%
Russ Feingold     19      11%
Other                    4        2%

Total:                162

Take from that what you will.  Let's see how it matches up with the first official polling of Nevada by a proper polling firm.

Huckabee has funny ears.

I got here late, everything else has mostly been covered.

Although I really don't think Romney will be a major factor.  He'll get covered cause people think he SHOULD be a major factor, but he'll never get going.

...of being able to run on a platform consisting of Amadou Diallo's corpse.

I am convinced that his numbers are based more on his reputation for taking New York back for the white people as anything connected to 9/11. He's got a proven track record of tapdancing on the Bill of Rights in order to assuage the fears of white middle class suburbanites.

Did they even ask about Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel?

That's a bad poll. Hagel would likely kill in Western Iowa right about now.

He's a dark horse, but he's one to watch.

As I've said before, we ignore him at our peril.

phat