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I became a subscriber to
Rasmussen reports yesterday in order to increase the amount of information I have available to make Senate and Governor forecasts. They may be a Republican firm, but I am already finding the information worth it. Today, I got a sneak peak at a new Connecticut poll (500 LV, 8/21, MoE 4. 8/9 numbers in parenthesis):
Lieberman: 45 (46)
Lamont: 43 (41)
Schlesinger: 6 (6)
Not much movement considering the sampling error, but even that little movement is positive. Some more good news is that when I broke down the partisan crosstabs according to
statewide voter registration (PDF--44% Ind / Other, 34% Dem, 22% Rep), Lamont was actually ahead by 1.6%. Throw in what will probably be much higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout this year, and Lamont may very well be ahead by a couple more points.
The difference between
the Q-poll and the Rasmussen poll in Connecticut is found mainly with Independents / Others. While Quinnipiac had Lieberman ahead by 20 among Independents, Rasmussen has a dead heat among Independents. There is no way to know who is more accurate.
Speaking of Independents, I have a very real problem with the way that both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac are phrasing their trial heat questions. Rasmussen asks voters:
If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Independent Joseph Lieberman, Democrat Ned Lamont or Republican Alan Schlesinger?
And Qunnipiac asks:
If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
Joe Lieberman is not an Independent candidate. He is the Connecticut for Lieberman candidate. I have to believe that calling him an "Independent" when he is no such thing must be helping him among Independents in both polls. Strictly speaking, Joe Lieberman is neither a Democrat nor an Independent. There is a Democratic Party in Connecticut, but they nominated Ned Lamont. There is an Independent Party in Connecticut, but they did not nominate anyone. There is a Connecticut for Lieberman party, and that is who nominated Joe Lieberman. I'm sure that in order to win that nomination Joe Lieberman spent a lot of time in public distancing himself from, and repeating Republican talking points about, the anti-Bush faction of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. However, Lieberman managed to win the nomination of that party anyway, and as such we should respect the will of their voters and properly label Joe Lieberman's partisan affiliation: Joe Lieberman, (Con-Lie, CT).
Update:
ARG also shows the race a dead heat, 44% Lieberman, 42% Lamont, 3% Schlesinger. It also has too many Republicans, just like Rasmussen. I am liking our chances more and more.
Update 2: Just so people know, and so I don't lose the $95 I spent yesterday, I only posted the Rasumssen info after it was already in the public sphere
via this diary at Dailykos. The service is really worth it, and don't expect to get all the information you want from it just through internet leaks.
You can sign up for it here.
