DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million

House Democrats are getting increasingly optimistic about their chances for this fall, so much so that they have increased their television ad buy for this fall by more than two-thirds. Patrick O'Connor reports for The Hill.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved $51.5 million of television advertising in 32 congressional districts.

The allocation reveals an aggressive posture toward the midterm elections, with 27 Republican-held districts targeted and only five Democratic districts identified as needing the defense of DCCC cash.

[...]

The $51.5 million total exceeds previously reported figures by $20 million and confirms that Democrats will be on offense for much of the fall in states such as Connecticut, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio as Republicans circle the wagons to protect their majority in the House.

It's good to see the DCCC expanding the field, though targeting 27 Republican seats when as many as twice that number are either competitive today or have the potential to be competitive.

However, I find it at least somewhat ironic that the DCCC would announce such a large expenditure on the same day that caucus leaders went public with complaints that the Democratic National Committee under Howard Dean was not devoting enough resources to the party's get-out-the-vote effort. If caucus leaders were indeed so concerned as to open up an intraparty rift so close to election day then perhaps one might think that they would announce a major investment in GOTV instead of a big ad buy.

Given the fact that that the Democratic Party's finances are in a better shape than they have ever been before and that Howard Dean is bringing in more hard dollars than any previous party chairman -- in addition, of course, to the party's strong generic congressional ballot strength and lead in polling from individual races around the country -- I think it would behoove party leaders to spend more time trying to create synergies, and thus a robust, united GOTV effort than they do bickering publicly about strategy.

Update [2006-8-3 3:31:8 by Jonathan Singer]: Jesse Lee over at the DCCC on the expanding field of races: "Don't worry, still not done."



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Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

27 is quite a good number. It is way too early to start dumping crucial resources on "possibly-kinda-competitive" seats like IL-10 until the candidates in those races move themselves up into closer position.

Rather than spreading too thin across too many districts and giving the likes of Shays or Roskam a light slap on the wrist, I'd rather saturate the 27 seats and keep the GOPers' negatives up until election day.


by OfficeOfLife on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 09:58:27 PM EST

Actually, DCCC is investing (none / 0)

in its own GOTV effort. It's being headed up Michael Whouley.


by Newsie8200 on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:07:41 PM EST

Re: Actually, DCCC is investing (3.00 / 1)

The DCCC currently has around $32 million in the bank. They still need to raise another $20 million to cover these ad buys. So unless they raise a whole heck of a lot more money in the next couple of months, any GOTV -- led by Whouley or whomever -- isn't going to have much support.


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

WHOULEY... (none / 0)

...I've been trying to remember that name for a while now.... Didn't he lead the Kerry GOTV effort?  He's supposed to be quite the whiz, isn't he?


by buffalo girl on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 11:21:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Idiots -- they should have spread it out more and targeted more races.  


by Pogues Fan on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:24:19 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

What, specifically, are the other races in which you think a TV buy would have an impact?  


by Patton on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Don Sherwood, perhaps. It's not clear from the article if money is going to go against Chris Chocola. Either of the New Hampshire Reps. Randy Kuhl.

I'm not saying you have to go after all 50 or so competitive or potentially competitive seats, but particularly in states that aren't expensive to advertise in -- say Wyoming -- a little bit can go a long way.


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

I guess I just assumed that Chocola would be one of the 32, but I can see that one.  

I guess I am just impressed that they are going hard after this many races to begin with.  I am a 50-state strategy man myself, but I think I'd rather have robust buys in 32 districts than sufficient buys in 50.  Good god, if we could actually win those 32 seats...we'd be solidly in the majority.  It's a weird thing to think, though, because if the number were 16 and not 32 I would be raising a stink.  

I know Wyoming is cheap, and things look better than they "ought to" there, but I can't really criticize the DCCC for not dumping cash there.

Plus, it's still early.


by Patton on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

There are a lot more potentially competitive races that could use the TV $ - just ask Charlie Cook.

NC-08 (Larry Kissell) is one that could have used a boost.


Enough is enough!
by Bear83 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 09:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

(By the way, nice seeing you today)


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Likewise.


by Patton on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

According to the Stakeholder they aren't done, and it has a list of the races where they are going to advertise.


by Mimikatz on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:38:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

What, specifically, are the other races in which you think a TV buy would have an impact?  

I only know the area I live in and I can name two here -- Kuhl and Sweeney are both vulnerable in my opinion.  It is possible that they aren't spending much in NYS because the Spitzer/Clinton money will kick in here.  But I suspect they're doing the typical Dem thing of trying to narrow things down to a few races.  It's worked so well for us the past few election cycles, right?


by Pogues Fan on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:51:29 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (3.00 / 1)

If they were smart, they would have invested the money in Tivo stock.


by Bob Brigham on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 10:58:02 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (3.00 / 1)

The DCCC has yet to discover the 50-state strategy.  TV time is a lot cheaper in Idaho than in Florida.


Enough is enough!
by Bear83 on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:07:18 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

But Idaho is one of three states that still have a majority supporting Bush. However, ad buys are also cheap in New Mexico, Colorado, and Eastern Washington.

The thing I think Emanuel and other DCCC types overlook is that people don't just get their opinions from their neighbors. When Uncle Harry in Southern Missouri suddenly starts spouting DNC talking points, it may well affect votes among friends and relatives in several other states. Conversely, if the only talking points coming out of rural America are conservative ones, it is unlikely that crosstalk is going to do anyting but suppress Democratic votes.


by Hoomai29 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm worried about GOP GOTV more than anything else (none / 0)

That's always my response to the, "What concerns you about this year's elections?" Everyone else names Diebold or other creatures in the dark. I've read enough obscure online articles since late 2001 to realize we're getting out thought in terms of ground emphasis and strategy.

I worked GOTV on election day 2004 and also for one Democratic House candidate in 2002. We were unsophisticated as hell. I wasn't sure if that was representative until 2004 when my dad volunteered for a canvassing group in Miami, then was made the leader with just a few days left in the campaign. No previous experience. The other guy quit. My dad said the funding was terrible and the printouts could not have been less reliable. This was in the suburbs of a vital city in a vital state.

So yeah, I was hoping emphasis would be placed in that area, so the article in the Washington Post is troubling as hell. I haven't even been contacted this year. My Republican friend who does GOTV for them here in Las Vegas told me they have already had several meetings.


by jagakid on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:08:43 PM EST

Re: I'm worried about GOP GOTV (none / 0)

GOTV is my concern as well. Like you when I volunteered it was pathetic to see that the Democrats were less organized than the Republicans in a blue part of the state.


by bruh21 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 10:10:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

I think all the bickering is over future power/blame.  If the Dems retake the House and/or the Senate, then the DCCC gets all the credit for the big ad buy.  If the Dems fail, they need a fall guy, the DNC, for poor GOTV.


by Jim Treglio on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:18:36 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (3.00 / 1)

Of course, Dean sent an email out today (or yesterday?) talking about how between now and election day, DNC is all about GOTV.  Surprised nobody's picked up on that much.


by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:26:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

www.100actions.com (none / 0)

They even put up a website listing one action that each Democrat in every state can do to help win the '06 elections.  I'm guessing 98% of those will be contacting fellow voters/GOTV type stuff.

100actions.com


Next Generation Democrats
by Pitin on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 01:42:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

DCCC Ad Buy - Consultant Take (none / 0)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved $51.5 million of television advertising in 32 congressional districts.

Is this a consultant pork fest or a wise investment?

Is there a skim off the top of that ad money by a consulting firm?


by Curt Matlock on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:34:44 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ad Buy - Consultant Take (none / 0)

Is there a skim off the top...

That seems to be how the Democratic Party operates. The corporations which fund the DCCC and DSCC don't seem to mind so long as their interests are looked after.


With Democrats Lieberman goes for the jugular. With Republicans he goes for the lips.
by Sitkah on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

The unfortunate fact is that Reform Democrats have two enemies to fight --  the GOP and D(L)C NeoDems.


With Democrats Lieberman goes for the jugular. With Republicans he goes for the lips.
by Sitkah on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:37:25 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

The DLC is dying.  How much credibility will they have if Lieberman runs as an independent.  

Speaking of the DLC, have you checked out Marshall Wittman's blog (BullMoose)?  What a nut job.  It's all Islamofascism this, Islamofascims that.  It's like reading Sean Hannity's diary (minus the gay panic, I guess).


by Pogues Fan on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:06:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

No. I don't know Wittman or his blog.


With Democrats Lieberman goes for the jugular. With Republicans he goes for the lips.
by Sitkah on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 03:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

What tells you more than anything that the Dems are wholly owned by big business almost as much as Republicans is the MASSIVE amount they are spending for only like 3 weeks to "protect" Melissa Bean.

I'd bet if she weren't a "free" trader, they'd not spend 1/3 that amount, if that.  She's a grand waste of money.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Wed Aug 02, 2006 at 11:48:10 PM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

I know for a fact that the DNC has spent good money in places for infrastructure that will work for GOTV.

phat


by phatass on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:06:55 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

What we know about Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign is that he's a whiz at fundraising. But when it came to actually closing the deal on election day, he sucked.


by zt155 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:21:10 AM EST

So he's in the right place ... (3.00 / 1)

What we know about Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign is that he's a whiz at fundraising. But when it came to actually closing the deal on election day, he sucked.
So he's in the right place, given that he's not running for office. He's getting lots of resources to make available to people who can "close the deal".

Sounds great to me.

by Bearpaw on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 10:15:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

We don't hear how much the networks are making. Why should corporate TV support public financing of elections when they see that gravy train coming every 2 years?


by mrobinsong on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:24:35 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)


by mrobinsong on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:24:54 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Our state party is organized around precincts and precinct committee officers (PCO). We meet monthly in legislative districts and elect officers. We also have county Dems and state Dems, as organizations with meetings and elected officers. PCO's are in charge of GOTV for the 100 or so households in their precincts. You have walking lists with names, phone and addresses and voting frequency history.

I thought this was how it was done everywhere - guess not! i guess that's why we need Dean's 50-state strategy. This is the structure that Dean and the state organizations are building. This is the borken infrastructure not tended for 30 years because of trending to TV advertising and corporate puchase of candidates. So the DSCC and DCCC just want the TV money and money to buy the lists? You get people's data and voting promises by asking, person to person. Neighbor to neighbor.

Howard Dean is right. DSCC and DCCC are old style TV money image making Dems. Dean is real. People want real.


by mrobinsong on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:39:55 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

The other good thing is that the DCCC ads have so far been really, really good this cycle.  The "Stay the Course" ad is pretty amazing.

Whoever they've got as an ad man, keep him.


by dday on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 01:28:49 AM EST

Another Dem circular firing squad... (none / 0)

Clearly, as someone suggested upthread, party bigwigs are more concerned about a strategy to protect their positions when the Dems lose in November than about any strategy that might see the party win!

What is notable in the Post piece is the amount of on-the-record bellyaching that the journo got.

As with this from Rahmbo:

I am not waiting for anyone anymore who said they were going to" build a turnout operation, Emanuel said. "It has got to be done."

Not to mention this:
Rep. Charles B. Rangel (N.Y.), who would become chairman of the Ways and Means Committee if Democrats picked up the 15 seats needed to regain the majority, said in an interview yesterday that he will quit Congress if the party does not capitalize on an unparalleled opportunity.

Way to boost morale there, brother! (GOP morale, that is...)

The only wonder for me is that yet another round of Dem infighting about the Dean/anti-Dean axis is thought by the Post as worthy of putting on A1.

To me, it's gotten desperately old.


by skeptic06 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 05:42:50 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Good questions: How is the money being spent? How is it divided? I'd like to know what percentage to consultants, to ad makers, to networks....

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved $51.5 million of television advertising in 32 congressional districts.

Is this a consultant pork fest or a wise investment?

Is there a skim off the top of that ad money by a consulting firm?


by mrobinsong on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 11:42:39 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

A waste of money if the ads are produced by the same ineffectual, hacks they usually hire.


by Hesiod Theogeny on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 11:56:16 AM EST

Re: DCCC Ups Ad Buy by $20 Million (none / 0)

Maybe the DNC and the Campaign Comittees are psyching out the Republicans into thinking that the Dems don't have their act together on GOTV.

Cause I have to tell you, I have seen evidence that the DNC ground operation is going to rock in November, and that it will be better than 2004.


by Hesiod Theogeny on Thu Aug 03, 2006 at 12:04:14 PM EST


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