Definitely agree here with Chris. Seniority to Lieberman is to the Democratic party what, to the people of France, a guillotine repairman to Robespierre. The Democratic party under Reid has show amazing signs of recovery - the backbone transplant the good doctor is attempting seems to be holding well. For us, as a country, to have an energized party that captures the imagination of not only people who are happy to play with the has-been , used-up labels of liberalism that were so popular in the sixties and seventies (with repletion as far as their own styles of dress and music ) - but also that vast salten sea of those voters in places like Indiana, Georgia, Florida, and yes even Texas.

Think for a minute - about that. A democratic texas. Wow. It makes me happy to think about it.

Now we just have to fight the narrative that because Liebermann has a lead at all, he's not a spoiler.

...besides send money to help the Lamont campaign get the message about? Should we just hammer home that the Dems are uniting behind Lamont? That Lieberman is the de-facto R candidate?

Wasnt there a poll right after the primary where Liebs was leading only by 6 points in a 3 way race?

Thankyou, thankyou. I was having a mini panic attack. My wife's comment to me in the begining that if "Lamont wins it might make the repiglican have a chance to take the seat" had come true.

If the party would stand up to Lieberman, this race would be over much sooner.  Strip him of his seniority and watch the lead evaporate faster.

Here's some thumbnail analysis - I know I'm mixing Likely and Registered voters so this isn't perfect but it gives you an idea of what kind of margins Lamont needs to swing to win.

Total registered voters in Connecticut
Democratic - 700,000
Independent - 900,000
Republican - 435,000

Using the likely voter poll breakdown...

Lieberman
D - 700K x 35% = 245,000
I - 900K x 58% = 522,000
R - 435K x 75% = 326,250
Total - 1,093,250 votes

Lamont
D - 700K x 63% = 441,000
I - 900K x 36% = 324,000
R - 435K x 75% = 56,550
Total - 821,550 votes

Now what if we make Independents 50/50?

Lieberman - 1,021,250
Lamont - 947,550

..and what if Lamont gains 5% of the GOP while Lieberman loses 5% of the Dems (convince 1 in 20 voters)?

Lieberman - 964,500
Lamont - 1,004,300

Fully 32% of CT voters haven't heard enough about  Ned Lamont to form an opinion about him. If these voters like what they see he'll be the next Senator from Connecticut. It will take a lot of hard work but it can and will be done.

wow that is the worst job at playing down expectations i have ever seen. even with positve trends, the fact that lieberman is double digits up is not good news for lamont, no matter how you spin it

Lamont favorable 25%, unfavorable 30%.  The man is toast.  I do, however, like the idea of the Dems stripping Joe of his seniority.  In the event of a deadlock in the Senate, the GOP would be happy to offer him the committee chairmanships of his choice in return for joining their caucus.

I like your optimism.

. . . And I wish I could share it.  Maybe I'll come to, if the positive trend continues.  Right now, there's not much data, is there?

The state GOP has a better candidate waiting in the wings, who would be more likely to pull some of those GOP votes away from Loserman.

What Lamont needs to do more than diverting votes to Schlesinger is to depress republican turnout. Give them enough reason to be disillusioned with Lieberman. Show how he whines. Show how he called Sharpton for an endorsement only to turn around and act like he wouldn't want to be associated with him. Put Lieberman's hypocrisy on full display. Highlight the comments on jewish voters made by an Irish supporter of Lieberman. Compile a list of whiny clips of Liebermaan and show him how he often does what he derides(negative campaigning).

Even if this is not enough to convert Lieberman repub voters to Lamont voters, maybe it will be enough to make them issue a protest vote to Schlesinger or not vote at all.

The important thing is that Lieberman has probably peaked in the amount of GOP support he will get. He's not going to get any more than 75 percent.

So, as Long as Lamont hammers Joe on his ILLIBERAL opinions on such things as Terri SChaivo, abortion and Social Security, and ties him to Bush, then Lamont can make up that ground.

This depends, though, on the Democratic establishment actually getting behind Lamont with more than words. They need to ca,mpaogn for him and work for him as well.

Very few of them will do that, however.

Lamont has come a long way in a little time. This race may be a prelude to 2008 if the DLC doesn't come to understand that the Reagan era is dead and the voters want the Democrats to be Democrats again.

BTW, this is my first MyDD post. : )

The doom-sayers up-thread need to relax, for hte following reasons:

1. Lieberman is DOWN from the last Q poll, and Lamont is up. You can't compare with Rasmussen, it has a different methodology.

2. Lamont is clearly up among democrats since the primary.

3. NO WAY a republican will end up at 4%. Right now, republicans being polled will claim to support Lieberman as a "statement against Ned / for Bush". Lieberman vs. Lamont is the story of the day, also for republicans in CT. But come election day, many of them will swing back, or may not vote at all. Around 15% is more likely, at least, and the 11% will be taken almost enteriely from Lieberman's coloumn. Do the math.

We knew the race will be close, and the poll confirms that.

Of course the "Lieberman leads" will get some play. Focus on the 4% figuer being very, very unlikely to hold. (Schlesinger will either fold or get more support.)

According to AP, Lieberman's wins in previous elections were

1988 50% (49% Lowell Weicker)
1994 67% (31% Jerry Labriola)
2000 64% (35% Philip Giordano)

Who are the 27% who voted for Labriola but won't vote for Schlesinger voting for? It's not Lamont!

I'm relieved. It means that the worst that can happen is that Jolting Joe is re-elected. There is now no possibility of a Republican nominee getting in, and no possibility that Lamont's primary run can be blamed for such a thing.

Lieberman should still be ashamed to be running against a Democrat, after seeking the Democratic nomination and failing to get it. The rule is, whoever who runs against the Democrat nominee in an election is not a Democrat.

The RNC knows one thing is certain in this race.  There will not be a Republican Senator from CT.  The best hope they have is for Lieberman to retain his seniority in the Senate as a hedge, in case the Dems pick up the 6 seats to take a majority.  A committe chaired by Joe may not even consider oversight for what 'facts' were used for the invasion of Iraq.

Schlesinger is the perfect candidate for Republicans, as long as his support stays in the single digits.  Only the true believers will cast a vote for a candiate who has no chance.  If Schlesinger does start making it into double digit support, expect stories in the media about card counting from anonomyous sources.  If the Lieberman/Lamont race is close in the last weeks of October, pressure is put on Schlesinger to get out.

I agree with the point made above, that many Republicans may be disgusted and just stay home.  But, there is also a chance that many will be energized by Lamont, in a negative way.  Simply vote for Lieberman as a vote to deny the left.

Yes, I am stronly in favor of Lamont, I just see the glass as half empty.  I hope I'm wrong.

From what I read, there are many moderate Republicans who are opposed to the war and dismayed with the uncontrolled spending on it. On these issues, Lamont is the better Democratic candidate even for Republicans. I wonder how many Republicans will warm to Lamont once he begins talking to all voters, not just Democrats and Independents.

First of all, someone should have told Ned Lamont about Michael Dukakis, who went on vacation after the Democratic primary and lost momementum, lost control of the issues, lost the election.

Secondly, I think that as it becomes clear that Lieberman is the de facto Republican candidate, a lot of tradtional Dems who supported him are going to say "Wtf?" and vote for Lamont.

I predict that Lamont will win by 32,000-35,000 votes.   Not exactly comfortable but decisive enough.

With Schlesinger bound to cut into Lieberman's newfound Republican base...

Unless the RNC pressures Schlesinger into dropping out, which I bet they're working on trying to do already.

I think Lamont just pounds away at Lieberman's support for Bush's Iraq war.  That gets the Democratic and Independent votes he needs.

For a discussion on what conservatives fear -- that an American majority will vote for candidates they agree with ... like Lamont, click here.

(snip)

"rather than throw support to Lieberman, the administration and its friends in the media have tried to make Lamont voters feel like the fringe left, even though they in fact agree with a majority of Americans on a number of key issues."

Where does that nonsense come from? Going on vacation was completely irrelevant. If you re-ran the primary tomorrow, Lamont's edge over Lieberman would be considerably wider.

The only thing that happened was the population changed. It's like being the fastest kid on the block and then you move to a different neighborhood, and suddenly you're three steps behind. You didn't lose any speed but the opposition is dramatically different. Anyone who expected Lamont to lead the general election polling was unaware of the logical breakdown among independents and Republicans.

Lamont has room to slice a few percent among all three voting groups. But he can't win unless Schlesinger zooms into mid-teens, at the lowest. Pretend all we want, but the numbers don't threaten to add up in Lamont's favor otherwise.

Regarding the headline here, that Lamont cuts Lieberman's lead in half, let's say a polling firm that had Casey in the lead by 20 points two months ago but hadn't polled the race since then, suddenly comes out with a poll tomorrow indicating Casey is up by 10. Would an MyDD headline say Santorum cuts the lead in half, or that Casey reasserts a 10 point lead? Besides, there were many comments in the analysis of the Rasmussen poll that it was Lieberman's high water mark.

I think this is right.  As Lieberman peaks, big DC Dems will be emboldened to come to CT on Ned's behalf, and this will accelerate the Lieberman fall.  Not over yet.

I see a lot of good analysis here. I would add two suggestions.

First, it's good to paint Lieberman as the republican endorsed candidate. However, also paint this as the election the Republicans can't afford to lose. If they lose this one, it will spread panic among the republican party.

Second, don't refer to the "War in Iraq", but refer to it as "The Forever War", as there is no end to that war in sight. Keep hammering at the Bush statement that his successors will have to decide how to end it. A short name with impact is called for. I submit, "The Forever war". Cause, after all, that is what a war on terror is.