I really can't figure out November. Usually I have strong opinions on where things are going, but I'm really veering back and forth between the 'tidal wave' thesis that pundits just love and the reality of our electoral leadership.
Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel are tactically superb but strategically ineffective committee leaders. They both raise a lot of money, and have the mechanical skills to run elections and recruit candidates. They inspire confidence in donors and insider journalists, and have found new and interesting ways to use the internet to push messaging. They also create a fair amount of cohesion among Democratic incumbents, and can jump on certain types of messaging opportunities with vigor and skill.
On the other hand, I have serious concerns about their political judgment. Schumer was heavily involved in recruiting right-wing Democrat Bob Casey, who is now on the verge of losing his massive lead to the most unpopular Senator in the country, and who has no field campaign to boot. Harold Ford is stuck in the low 40s in the polls (and he has almost no chance statewide), despite what Schumer considers a mostly perfect campaign in that he ran on ports and gas prices. Arizona candidate Jim Pederson's campaign was disastrous awhile back, and he's getting no traction, though the DSCC is quite willing to spend millions on his race, and I'm guessing that it's because he was a big donor to the Democratic Party. Jack Carter in Nevada actually has a slim shot, but last I heard he's not getting help from anyone.
Emanuel is very similar in outlook and attention span, though he has less control over the House races. Early on, Rahm Emanuel got involved in primary fights all over the country, winning some and getting spanked in others, and meanwhile finding time to write a book with DLCer Bruce Reed whose thesis strongly implies that voters shouldn't bother to differentiate between the parties because Democrats are weak and have no ideas. He's also been in a fair number of portraits of himself in the press attacking Howard Dean, and presided over the loss of the California 50th race on an ineffective 'culture of corruption' message while presumably drawing as the lesson that Busby's last minute gaffe swung the election, which it did not.
Unfortunately, the judgment errors don't end there. The DSCC is putting out racist crypto-conservative ads that embrace the war on terror even as the vice-chair of that same body is supporting an independent over the Democratic nominee in Connecticut (and openly bragging about his own hypocrisy in the matter). The latest terrorism threat looks like it might have been faked, but don't worry, you can count on Democrats Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel to prosecure the falsified war on terror with even more fake vigor and superficial feel-good measures than our widely disliked and distrusted President. Schumer also wants to ratify Bush's foreign policy with a nice shiny rubber stamp of right-wing sociopath John Bolton.
Does this sound like a tidal wave election to you?
On the other hand, the dynamic can be changed. First of all, candidates could stop listening to the national party committees and the DC consultants. Second of all, the progressive movement could change the conventional wisdom away from message-less partisanship and towards the politics of accountability.
What happened in Connecticut combined with Joe's new ride on the right-wing crazy-train goes a long way towards changing the second dynamic. And if it really turns out that this latest terror plot was a fake, enough Democrats will probably come out against the fake war on terror and for accountability that we might be able to sneak this message in.
Anyway, that's where I am. Hopefully we can all pull together in the final three months, and our strategic disagreements won't keep us from what really should be a tidal wave election.
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