The first question is, assuming he has the votes to pass those cloture motions, does he have the time before the recess to get it done? Rule 22 prescribes that a complete calendar day must elapse between the filing of the motion and the vote; then there's up to 30 hours of debate before the MTP or the bill is voted on.

I can't see that Frist has filed for cloture on the MTP today. If he does so tomorrow, it'll be Thursday before MTP cloture is voted; then (assuming the Dems decide to filibuster) sometime Friday when the vote on the MTP takes place.

And the Senate still wouldn't have got to the bill itself! (Can Frist file for cloture on the bill before the vote on the MTP has taken place? I'm thinking not.)

So - Frist can decide to keep the Senate in session into the weekend. (Won't he be popular!)

Let's suppose for the sake of argument that time is not a factor.

The second question, then, is, has he got the votes?

On cloture on the MTP, I suspect he has. (If Reid knows he has, and doesn't want to push the session past Friday, he may decide to give Frist the MTP.)

On the bill itself, Grassley (in the MarketWatch piece) says there are 57 votes for cloture on the bill.

We have a check: the cloture vote on the stand-alone estate repeal bill HR 8 which failed 57-41 in June.

Looking at the details, we have just four Dems voting in favor:

Baucus (D-MT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)

Voinovich and Chafee voted against; Rockefeller and Schumer did not vote.

What's changed with HR 5790?

The estate tax isn't repealed, just gutted. And, on top, we have the minimum wage hike; and also a bunch of tax extenders - provision to renew tax breaks with sunset clauses.

Now, we know that Grassley (chairman of Finance) is miffed that these extenders, which he'd intended to use to sweeten the pensions bill (HR 4), were switched to HR 5790 - but would he and his friends vote against cloture on HR 5790 out of spite or pique? I doubt it somehow.

For Voinovich and Chafee (especially Chafee, of course), the minimum wage would give a plausible reason for switching their votes.

Plus - there are a number of Fristies who toed the party line last time who might be persuadable.

They include Biden, Landrieu, and Pryor. And there's also Uncle Joe, too!

On the other hand, how many of HR 8's 53 GOP yeas would find passing a minimum wage hike too much to stomach? A number (most?) of them, I suspect, will have statements on the record disparaging minimum wage hikes in the past.

On the other hand, HR 5790, in being larded with tax goodies, is similar to the last minimum wage hike bill that passed, HR 3448 (104th Congress), the Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996. GOP senators would thus have the cover of precedent if they were to accept a compromise.

Bottom line: if the vote on HR 8 is any guide, Frist has a shot at getting the votes for cloture.