The article states they are reluctant to state that the current recount reflects any tendency, as the tally can change at any moment.  But the party for the Betterment of All is leading in the polls.  

But Lopez Obrador has a 2% lead, which is more than Calderon had on election night.  The question remain:  Which states remain to be counted?

With 87.26% of vote:

AMLO:  36.43
Calderon: 38.87

Difference now is only 1.56%

This reminds me of the 1988 election between Cardenas and Salinas.  Will the IFE really persuade everyone that this time the close election is being counted fairly?

Calderón and López Obrabor would both be
Democrats in the USA  (sure, one would be Feingold and one Hilary but both D's).  I'm mostly worried that this new open Democracy in México might not be as stable as it looks whichever one wins.

The totals on Sunday were a sample of the total ballots. Unlike the United States, Mexico has a federal agency count votes for its federal offices and there is a special jurisdiction court just for electoral challenges.

I'm one of those people eager to see a Mexican President willing to question NAFTA, for their sake.

That's as of 11:19 EDT.  Obrador is up by 1.24 percentage points with 90% tallied.

Paida,
I think you reversed the two numbers. At no point during the official vote tally did Calderon lead by the amount you mentioned. At least not as of yet.

Thank you guys for keeping the numbers coming...I'm hoping AMLO wins!!!!!!!

What does the minute by minute headline story say about Sinaloa (sorry my Spanish is not too good)?

The last 3 updates have tightened the margin, is the fix in?

If Lopez Obrador leads after full tally will Calderon accept results as he wants Lopez Obrador to do?

With 91.71% coutned:

Lopez Abrador 36.15%
Calderon      35.09%

Difference     1.06%

Last several updates have been trending for Calderon.

Still holding on with the count at 36.14 to 35.10 with 91.96% counted.  Does this remind anyone else of the Gregoire-Rossi battle in Washington state?  Unlike Gore-Bush, the votes are being counted.  No Supremes stopping the count here.

92.45 %

Obrador  36.09
Calderon 35.13

Difference .96%

According to El Universal, the difference is now below one percentage point.  Also, You can use the Google translation website as well.  Although, the grammer is horrific as in all translation software but it does help a bit if one doesn't speak Spanish.

Been using it myself

http://translate.google.com/translate_t

It's interesting how computers never seem to translate the true meaning as people can.  But I digress from tonight's subject:  the Mexican Presidential election.

This damn thing has me hooked and it's going to the wire!!!!!

Interesting

Votes for Lopez Obrador found in the trash in Xalapa, Veracruz.

Question:  Are you a true political junkie when you closely follow elections late a night that are not even in your own country? Snark!  

I must admit that I also have caught the bug.  It is a real nail biter. Bush V Gore 2000 South of the Border!  (Except sans Catherine Harris.)

Well I'm fixing to watch the Daily Show/Colbert Report for the second time tonight because of this....

First update to come in which didn't shave the margin but only a .1% addition to total

If Obrador wins the recount, is that final?  the headline to this story seems pretty sure of it, but the text just seems to indicate that they won't put off the rest of the recount until tomorrow.  How does the Mexican constitution allow for recounts?

New York Times describes the challenge process:

The board was to review the tally sheets from each box of ballots. Only in cases where the tally sheets are illegible, where there appear to be mistakes in the count or where there is evidence of tampering could the board recount the ballots.

Visits to a few district offices in the industrial city of Guadalajara, a stronghold of Mr. Calderón's National Action Party, offered a glimpse of the tensions in the process, and the potential for errors and irregularities in the initial tabulation.

Six ballot boxes were opened for a recount in District 8 because of errors on the tally sheets. In every case, the preliminary tallies turned out to be wrong.

In one case, polling workers had miscounted so badly that they gave 100 extra votes to a third candidate, Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and doubled the 235 votes for Mr. Calderón. Mr. López Obrador's count was not affected.

"They should open them all because in the six they opened, there were problems," said Francisco Mares, a 25-year-old lawyer who represented Mr. López Obrador's party at the district.

Way I figured it, we needed to have a 0.6% differenceat 95% in. 0.6 was crossed at 94.85%.

Gonna be tight, but I wouldn't hold my breath for us as of right now.  Still, there's hope.

Ok...my first contribution to any blog, so I apologize if I violate any formatting standards or whatnot.

Here's a translation of the following story:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/3603 75.html

I did it quickly so it's not perfect, but better than Google or freetranslation.com

Calderon nears AMLO in the vote counting

The difference is now less than one percentage point; the gap closed the in last five hours, since the count passed the 71 percent mark

EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx Edition
El Universal
Mexico City
Wednesday, July 5, 2006

23:30
Felipe Calderon has rapidly gained on Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador en the vote tally that is taking place through a count of the ballot boxes from all 300 Electoral Districts.  AMLO's advantage is now less than one percentage point.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's advantage has been reduced significantly in the last five hours (since 17:31), since the count passed the 71 percent mark.

As of 23:08 Lopez Obrador has 36.11% of the vote and Felipe Calderon 35.12%, which is to say, a difference of 0.99 percentage points.  The difference was as high as 2.31% at the 71% mark and since then the count has narrowed continually to Lopez Obrador's advantage.

Josefina Vazquez Mota, the PAN presdiential campaign manager, said tonight in a press release that it's just a matter of time before the trend reverses and PAN's victory is known.

[More to come...I thought I'd get this to you right away...]

AMLO will win. And his victory will help Mexico in general all all people in particular; especially the poor. AMLO knows he must fix whats inside before he can venture out. And, yes, he will examine NAFTA. Bush of course will put on his political face, but he will be disappointed. By this weekend, if not sooner, AMLO will be announced the winner.  

[Continued from above translation]

She said that the advantage that the "Por Bien de Todos" [trans. "For the Good of All", the PRD coalition] coalition has currently is a result of the fact that the votes were counted faster in the areas where AMLO was strong.

The electoral officials have said since the beginning of the count that the definative results would not be known until all 300 Electoral Districts are counted.

The counts available thus far show an advantage for the presidential candidate of the coalition "For the Good of All," Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, though less of one than he had hours before.

At 23:08, with 90.17% of the ballot boxes counted in the 300 Electoral Districts of the country, the leader of the coalition "For the Good of All" leads.

The results that the Electoral Districts have so far are as follows:

92.17% of ballot boxes counted

Presidential Candidates:
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.11 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.12 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.23 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.70 %
Roberto Campa: 0.96 %

-----------------------------

Wow...they sure repeated themselves a lot...

The following are finished counting:

Baja California Sur, Campeche, Coahuila, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala y Zacatecas.

The following states are yet to be completed:

97.74 Jalisco
97.74 Veracruz (Lopez Obrador)
97.45 México (Lopez Obrador)
97.50  Tabasco (Lopez Obrador)
96.12 Distrito Federal (Lopez Obrador)
97.39  Sinaloa
96.94 Chiapas (Lopez Obrador)
48.42 Colima  
68.44 Baja California
68.73 Durango  
The last three are Calderon strongholds.  Get ready to bite your nails.

97.03% counted, 0.17% lead for Obrador.  This is insanely tense.

Crossover occurred at 4:01CST at 97.70%.  Many DF and Mexico City districts remain to be counted.

You all were awesome with the updates.  Are the DF and Mexico City districts reporting this morning at 10:00a.m.?  The BBC reported thousands being turned away at temporary polling stations b/c they were only provided 750 ballots each?  I haven't seen this allegation from the AMLO camp?  Looks like they learned well from their northern neighbors.

3:54 AM Thursday July 6, 2006
With 97.64% of votes counted

Felipe Calderon Hinojosa 14,533,823 (35.61%)

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador 14,531,304
(35.60%)

A difference of 2,519 with 3,388 not yet
counted

Lopez Obrador to have a news conference
at 8:30 AM this Thursday to announce
his position on the final results
of the count.

from ElUniversal.com.mx

Calderon wins!

And of course, Obrador does not accept the results.

3:54am Thursday July 6, 2006

Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (Partido Acción Nacional)
14,533,823 (35.61%)

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Coalicion Por el Bien de Todos)
14,531,304 (35.60%)

Roberto Madrazo Pintado (Alianza por México)
8,975,558 (22,26%)

Roberto Campa Cifrián (Partido Nueva Alianza)
386,912 (0.96%)

Patricia Mercado, (Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina)
1,092,221 (2.70%)

3,388 still to be counted

It's expected that the contest
will go to the courts, according
to the paper El Universal.

Finally from CNN

MEXICO CITY, Mexico (CNN) -- By a razor-thin margin, conservative candidate Felipe Calderon took the lead over leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico's contentious presidential election early Thursday.

With nearly 98 percent of the vote counted, Calderon had 35.6 percent, compared to 35.59 percent for Lopez Obrador. A number of other candidates split the remaining vote, but none were within striking distance of the front-runners.

On Sunday, the head of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) said the election was too close to call, launching Wednesday's official tabulation of the votes.

"It is not possible within the margins established in the quick count to say what party has obtained the highest vote," said Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of IFE.

Ugalde said the counting of the approximately 42 million ballots cast must be completed in all 300 of Mexico's voting districts, which include 133,000 polling stations.

"IFE will then do a count district by district," Ugalde said, "and it will be done without interruption until it is completed and then we will know who was the candidate who obtained the majority of the votes."

The Electoral Council is to convene Sunday to review the results of the process.

Theoretically, an official result could be announced as early as Sunday, though each candidate has until the following Thursday to challenge the result.

The Electoral Tribunal then has until August 23 to review any challenges and until Sept. 6 to name a new president.

Both candidates have claimed victory and have suggested there has been vote manipulation in the razor-thin race.

"We are absolutely sure that we have won the presidential election," Calderon from the conservative National Action Party (PAN), the same party as outgoing President Vicente Fox, told supporters Monday.

"I mean to say that we have won and I am very grateful to the majority of the Mexicans for their support," said Lopez Obrador, a leftist former mayor of Mexico City.

Fox, who was barred by law from running for another six-year term, must hand over power to the winner on December 1.

And the LA Times

Mexico Conservative Regains Lead; Leftist Rejects Tally
From Associated Press
7:16 AM PDT, July 6, 2006

MEXICO CITY -- Conservative candidate Felipe Calderon was leading in an official vote count by a razor-thin margin today, but his leftist rival said he won't accept the results and will take his demands to court.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he was robbed of victory, and he urged his supporters to gather this weekend in Mexico City, stirring fears he would mobilize massive protests that could lead to violence.

"We are going to the Federal Electoral Tribunal with the same demand -- that the votes be counted -- because we cannot accept these results," he said. "We are always going to act in a responsible manner, but at the same time, we have to defend the citizens' will."

With some 99.2 percent of the vote tallies counted after Sunday's election, Calderon of the National Action Party had 35.77 percent compared to 35.42 percent for Lopez Obrador of Democratic Revolution. About 150,000 votes out of more than 41 million cast separated the two.

Once the count is completed, it can be disputed before the country's top electoral court. A winner must be declared by Sept. 6.

THAT'S IT!!!!

From The Associated Press:

Cota said Democratic Revolution would not recognize the results without a ballot-by-ballot recount. But Ugalde said that was not possible.

"Mexican law is very clear on when a ballot box can be opened: only when there are problems with the vote tallies, when the tally sheet has obviously been changed, or when the box has been tampered with," Ugalde said.

Once the count is complete, the seven-judge Federal Electoral Tribunal will hear any complaints and can overturn elections. By law, it must certify a winner by Sept. 6, and its decision is final.
************

It also states that AMLO will demand a ballot by ballot recount and mobilize millions to march on the streets of Mexico City and throughout the country. Technically, this is not over.

Read the NY Times, it's gotten coverage for the past couple of days. It was even on Wednesday's front page. It irks me when people cry "the main stream media this, the main stream media that," but don't bother to check one of the biggest newspapers in the country.

And why is Calderon winning a good thing? So big business can continue to pillage?

Oops. misread that part. Yay Obrador (I hope).

I apologize. I often notice people doing what I just wrongly accused you of, so sometimes I have a short fuse on this.

Let's not forget that Obrador skipped the debates.  It's a lesson: face the public now, or face their scrutiny later.

Obrador is paying the price for not going to the debates.

Calderon is not a giant disaster.  Let's face it: in America this guy would be one of those pro-business Biden Democrats that we all want to slap.  But, he isn't an American conservative by any stretch.

Any Mexican election that doesn't involve the PRI winning is a good result, imo.

I agree with alhill -- main thing is that the PRI is still out of there.  That's a big victory. BTW, I had a real chuckle reading about Calderon's campaign promises in the NYT -- one was to "cut income taxes to spur the free market."  Hilarious if you know Mexico (land of the capitalist oligarchs, like Carlos Slim, who pay no taxes and got their fortune essentially courtesey of the old PRI government).  

P.S.  Any news about the deputies election?  One of of the big hurdles for Fox was continuing PRI dominance of the two houses.  Hopefully, that'll change...