MyDD :: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA

Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA

by Matt Stoller, Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:30:46 PM EST

Lieberman had a nice uptick in the latest Survey USA polls, which makes sense considering the flood of single issue mail, Bill Clinton coming to town, huge TV spending by Lieberman, and liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer stumping for the incumbent. Connecticut voters absorbed Lamont's message, found it appealing, and now are being subjected to the Lieberman message in utterly staggering amounts. The old TV machine is still very powerful. And I expect his support will tick up a little bit more, since Clinton's endorsement is going to continue to resonate (and if Clinton has given Lieberman permission, will be in a TV ad). Lieberman has a lot of money from lobbyists, single issue groups, and liberal incumbents. This is in fact a fight between the entire machine of the Democratic party and the new progressive movement. We should not assume that they bring no firepower or loyalty to the table.

Ultimately, though, Connecticut voters are going to look at the Lieberman's disloyalty as a Democrat on such key issues as Alito, the Energy Bill, corporate trade deals, and Terry Schiavio, and they will realize that it is in their power to choose better representation. While this isn't a single issue campaign, Iraq looms large. And Iraq isn't just another issue. Iraq is a multi-trillion dollar sacrifice of our nation's ideals. It is a shredding of the Constitution. It is a lobbyist driven war-for-profit. And from 2002-2004, it was our nation's delusion.

George Bush and Joe Lieberman are still in fantasy-land, too weak to admit they were wrong and too scared to change course. Voters in Connecticut would do well to keep this in mind.

Tags: Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman, CT-Sen, Connecticut, Iraq (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

Democrats have a right to back a Democrat (none / 0)

May the best man win.

On another note:

"The old TV machine?" ... Matt lets get real.

by dpANDREWS on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:46:46 PM EST

Re: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA (none / 0)

Let me know if I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like this poll was taken before the visits by Clinton and Boxer. That's not such good news.

by who threw da cat on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:46:56 PM EST

Re: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA (none / 0)

I think that's right. Lieberman is making his comeback, which I thought would happen about a week ago.

The rhythm just felt right for this swing back.

by Matt Stoller on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reconstructing a thought process (none / 0)

A reasonably engaged Democrat in Connecticut, the type that would vote in a primary, might have gone through this thought process:

"Lieberman's been a colossal disappointment...wish we had better representation, but at least he's better than the Republican...hmmm, who's this Lamont guy...hey, he sounds pretty good...wonder if he can handle the job...hey, nice debate performance, and boy did Joe come across as a jerk...let's find out more about Lamont...man, he's impressive, I think I'm going to vote for him, we finally have an alternative to Joe...yep, I'm for Lamont..."

(Clinton visits.)

"Oh, maybe Lieberman's not that bad after all...Bill came by and said so...that does it, I'm back to Lieberman!"

I honestly DO NOT GET THIS.

by Master Jack on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA (none / 0)

Any hope to take the Joementum from his sails? Also from the SUSA numbers, what the hell caused Santorum to have a 7 point upswing in favorability?

by who threw da cat on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Variability (none / 0)

Matt, we gotta talk sometime about polls, variability, and margins of error. That tick is noise. Look at what's going on.

1) The Dem numbers are from a sample of ~185 voters. That's why the MOE is a whopping 7.2%.

2) The MOE on a June-July comparison is 9.6%. And you're trying to read into a 4% swing. There's just barely over a 50-50 chance that July's SUSA poll represents any positive movement for Lieberman among Dems.

3) Note that Lieberman's approval ratings among all CT adults are essentially unchanged even if we take the polls as reality, but they haven't gone down among any other group. I say some of that 4% change is rounding.

No cause for alarm. Honest.

by RT on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 05:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Four points? (3.00 / 1)

That's within the MOE.

Still, it's cause for concern, if not alarm. I've always felt that Democrats -- especially those who vote in primaries -- are far less vulnerable to media manipulation than the voting public at large. Heck, anyone who's STILL a Democrat today, given the unremittingly negative coverage the party gets in the press, already has better-than-average critical-thinking skills.

But I could be wrong. If a visit by Bill Clinton would magically convince a wavering Democrat that Joe Lieberman's not so bad after all, then I don't know HOW we're EVER going to turn this country back around.

by Master Jack on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:49:22 PM EST

That quote is is almost six months old. (2.00 / 2)

Why are you reporting it now? It's from Feb. 5 of this year...so old, in fact, that the original Newsday link has since been taken down. Check it out on dKos.

I'm as happy to crap on Lieberman as the next Democrat, but it's fundamentally dishonest to post old news without mentioning it as such.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:03:10 AM EST

Re: That quote is is almost six months old. (none / 0)

From my post:

This is from a few months ago, but it's a nice story showing his horrific judgment and disloyalty to the party is nice and intact.

by Matt Stoller on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA (none / 0)

But there is nothing dramatic in this that suggests people are going to drag themselves to the polls on his behalf August 8.

by Bob H on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 08:16:30 AM EST

Re: Lieberman Ticking Back Up in SUSA (none / 0)

I watched Clinton's speech for Joementum on CSPAN last night. My take is that it was mostly all about him, how wonderful the Clinton days were and how awful Bush is. Yeah we know. It's Lieberman who doesn't get it.

I also recall some remark Clinton made about how nasty the Repubs are with their behavior around Schiavo and other sins. I THINK I heard that. If so, I guess Big Bill is a little on the ignorant side regarding Lieberman's positions.

CSPAN followed up the Lieberman rally with a very nice piece on a block party visited by Ned and Maxine Waters. I especially enjoyed Ned's banter with Gloria Borger who was all about educating Ned on who she is.

Visit my blog Democracy for New Mexico

by barbwire on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 11:24:31 AM EST

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