MyDD :: House 2006 Open Thread

House 2006 Open Thread

by Chris Bowers, Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 05:39:43 PM EST

Chuck Todd has his new House rankings out. Of the sixty-one races mentioned in any capacity, 51 seats are currently held by Republicans. 51. Almost every House candidate on the MyDD / Dailykos / Swing State Project Act Blue page is mentioned, which is pretty cool. I will be publishing my rankings within the next week. The only thing that is keeping me from publishing them now is that I know there is a huge, independent poll in the field that will look at dozens of Republican-held districts. That poll will really give us an indication as to whether a wave is building at this time or not.

Also, I have an announcement. As of today, I will be doing netroots consulting for Representative Brad Miller. It is absolutely my pleasure to be working with a progressive Democrat and a real friend of the netroots. I hope this campaign will allow the emerging North Carolina netroots scene to really show its stuff, and to send professional wingnut Vernon Robinson to yet another electoral defeat. It will be like campaigning against Ann Coulter, only Vernon Robinson is probably worse.

You may have noticed that Representative Miller is actually the most cash challenged Democratic incumbent in this election cycle, and that he is on the netroots allies page. I'll just ask you to put two and tow together on that one.

Also, David Kowalski has been putting together some great diaries on off the radar House races in 2006. Check them out.

I have included a poll in the extended entry. This is an open thread on House campaigns in 2006.

Poll

Votes: 122
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: House 2006, open threads, Brad Miller, NC-13, election forecasts (all tags)

Permalink :: 23 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

Cook is good, but what's with IL-17 being off the chart? I always thought of IL-17 as waaaaaay more competitive than, say, FL-16. Is Hare that secure? I mean, this is a competitive district where Blagojevich is almost certain to weaken downstate Democrats, and Hare is hardly as well-known as Lane Evans was.

My ActBlue page

by Ament Stone of California on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 06:47:10 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

Since you are doing consulting for Brad Miller I feel I must ask this.

Gov. Easley (D) is term limited out of the governor's office in 2008 and Liddy Dole (R) is up for re-election then as well. I have been impressed with what I have read on Rep. Miller. Is there any indication he will pursue either of these two offices?

Remember this is the open-ness of the blogs, not a press conference. Please don't give a non-answer.

Thanks. :-D

by Trowaman on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 06:59:44 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

What, you think that as a consultant for all of twelve hours I have that kind of info? Whatever.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:15:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

Hey,
Alls I know is it seems a little odd that a member of the U.S. house who is not in the leadership would reach out to a well known blogger like you just to help him build a little bit of better relations with blog world from his comfortable safe house seat.

Maybe I'm being a little cycnical here, but I sense something, something that resembles the beginnings of a bigger campaign. And yes, I'd say the same thing is someone like Rep. Rangell (NY), Rep. Berry (AR), or Rep. Udall (NM or CO) did the same thing.

by Trowaman on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 03:31:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

O hyes, and of course, even if I had this info somehow posting here is like an anonymous backroom discussoin. No one would notice if I leaked this info here. It wouldn't turn into a story at all.

What--ever.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:19:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

The '08 Dems that will probably run for NC Governor include Lt Gov Beverly Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore. They each have a couple million $$ in the bank for the race.

The Senate race vs Dole? Who knows? Her latest SUSA approval was at a shocking 62%. Gov. Easley is the most obvious choice since he is term-limited. Or maybe we need another unknown like John Edwards was when he first ran in '98.

by Bear83 on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 01:24:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsy races (none / 0)

In the 6th, Gerlach and Lois Murphy are even moneywise, but Gerlach picked up the teacher's union endorsement. That will hurt Murphy some, IMHO. Gerlach's worried, though, he's been breaking GOP ranks on votes lately. Expect Ed Rendell to a lot of co-campaing appearances with Murphy to help her.

In the 8th, Patrick Murphy has closed the money gap. He's doing a lot "off media", working the grassroots very hard. When the recent flooding occurred, Murphy was out rolling up his sleeves and helping while Fitzpatrick was issuing statements from DC. This will end up being very close either way.

In the 10th, it's all about Sherwood. This will be a referendum on his personal morality. If Carney shows he's a credible alternative, he'll likely win. Carney just got the endorsement of a group against domestic violence so you can figure Sherwood's affair and subsequent violence against his lover isn't going away as a campaign issue.

In the 7th, Sestak is raising money like a maniac.
Weldon has already gotten dirty. There have been push polls reported with leading and negative
questions about Sestak. A sure sign of a paniced
incumbent. With the Boeing helicopter plant a large employer in the district, defense spending
will be a big issue. Since Sestak probably has
better credentials here, the voters might not be
too reluctant to replace Weldon.

I was suprised to see the 4th on Hotline's radar.
Altmire is the best Dem challenger to Hart in the last 3 cycles, but he's almost broke from the primary and I don't sense a lot of enthusiasm for him from the voters. Berner would've been a better
choice, IMO, but the voters chose Altmire. Hart does just enough constituent service to keep her
viable in this Dem district, but she also has
broken GOP voting ranks somewhat lately especially
with her vote to override Bush's stem cell veto.
That tells me she must be at least a little worried.

Keep your eyes on two races off the radar right now. Barr(D) vs Shuster(R-I) in the 9th and Herr(D) vs Pitts(R-I)in the 16th. There is a real "not Shuster" vote to be tapped in the 9th. Pitts hasn't had a competitive race for years and Herr
is doing ok raising money. The 16th could be this
cycle's version of Holden vs Gekas. If there is
a Dem "tidal wave" in November, one or both of these seats could be a pick up.

by phillydem on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 07:52:55 PM EST

Re: Pennsy races (none / 0)

In the 16th, Pitts is well-liked and easily beat Lois Herr in '04. Unfortunately, I think he keeps the seat even in a moderate-sized "wave." I think people like Lois too, though...and the Herr name is well-known in the area, as any potato chip eaters can attest. She has a shot of stealing this seat when Pitts retires, or in the case of a "tidal wave" as you suggest. It's an unfriendly area for Democrats right now, but we may see it start trending blue over the next decade or two, like the rest of southeastern PA has been.

Any idea what was behind Gerlach's getting the endorsement of the teachers? That is bad news indeed, although I still think Murphy will eke out a victory.

by slb36cornell on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 10:48:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsy races (none / 0)

Isn't John Murphy running on the Green party ticket in the 16th, too? Of course he'd probably pull voters from Herr not Pitts.

We had a story linked about the teachers endorsing Gerlach over at KeystonePolitics.com, but IIRC, the teachers said that Gerlach had voted for increased funding for schools and other bills that they support. I guess it's understandable why they'd endorse him then.

by phillydem on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 01:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsy races (none / 0)

Thanks for the PA rundown, Phillydem. Nice summaries.

I am trying to get more info on the Altmire campaign (I have a friend involved in Altmire fundraising in Pittsburgh). I'll be sure to post whatever I find.

by ThomasAllen on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 10:51:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsy races (none / 0)

I think maybe Altmire was a DCCC recruit. He's a centrist Dem, a little to the left of Klink and Casey I'd say. His politics are probably a good fit for the 4th, where I was born and raised, ftr.

I personally preferred Berner because she was a woman who would've neutralized any gender advantage Hart might have and she's from the heart of the 4th, lower Lawrence County which would have given her a base of both Beaver and Lawrence Counties. But the voters picked Altmire.

Altmire is going to have to work Beaver and Lawrence counties hard if he's to have a chance to win. Although Hart's vote to override Bush's stem cell bill veto may be a sign she's worried. I can't imagine her doing this otherwise because she
s a Bushbot rubberstamp just like her boyfriend Santorum.

by phillydem on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 02:04:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Congrats (none / 0)

So what shall we name this eventual yet nonexistent conspiracy....

Bowersola?

Chrisola?

by Delaware Dem on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 08:02:21 PM EST

Re: Congrats (3.00 / 1)

And how much of a cut will Markos be taking for his eventual Miller endorsement, the only explanation for which is corruption?

(Wingnut prophylactic --This is a joke, you idiots)

by ThomasAllen on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 10:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Lots of netroots candidates are competitive (none / 0)

That's great. I'd like to see them all win. Here's the question:

Did netroots attention/buzz/money put them there? or Did the netroots only pick close races?

I know there's no clear-cut one-or-the-other, and the truth will obviously be a bit of both, but I hope the answer is at least closer to "netroots made them competitive".

As you know very well: this isn't a zero-sum game, the readers will take your attention and multiply it on the local level; you've got readers in districts all over the country; and the netroots seems much better at moving a race from lean-republican to tossup than from tossup to lean-democratic. I think I'll diary that argument. later.

Progress is Personal | Connie Brennan | My opinions are mine alone

by msnook on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 08:47:37 PM EST

John Laesch. (none / 0)

is doing great stuff.
John Laesch on protecting your vote.

Hastert is in trouble.

-C.

by neutron on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 08:53:25 PM EST

Nice, Chris (none / 0)

From everything I have seen Rep. Miller has been incredibly determined to fight for the good guys, especially on economic issues. With him and Edwards, its almost like fighting for working class people is something to be proud of. Who would have thought?

Good choice, and good match, for each of you.

Progressive Philadelphia Politics: Young Philly Politics

by DanielUA on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 09:24:37 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

Anyone out there have a feel for how the WI-08 race is going?
I'm getting great feelings of distrust of the Republican Party in general, and their presumptive candidate (John Gard) in particular as I'm campaigning to replace Gard in the Assembly. As a candidate, I can't comment on my personal views of the three Dems running (Steve Kagen, Nancy Nusbaum & Jamie Wall), but I do think whoever gets the nomination has a great chance to beat Gard.

We could pull off the trifecta in Wisconsin: Doyle stays Governor (beats Green), Gard loses Green's seat, and I can become the first Democrat to win this seat in 40 years.

The best sig is no sig.

by Noonan on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 09:37:50 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (3.00 / 1)

Whenever there's a thread like this, I feel like I've got to bring up Michigan's 7th District.

After the Aug. 8th primary, I really hope this district will get a lot more attention. A first term Republican that's alienated the moderates and has a strong but ultra-conservative primary challenger who might actually win. All this in a district where Kerry got 45%. Plus a Constitution Party candidate that got 3% last time, and the general shift toward the Democrats nationwide, and I think it could become competitive.

I wrote a DailyKos diary on it yesterday, for those interested.

Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07

by Fitzy on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:12:51 PM EST

Brad Miller (none / 0)

It's good to see you helping out Brad. He's a good guy who works hard and deserves to have his message heard by a broader audience (in NC). Robinson's a pathetic case and is sadly similar to too many candidates across the South. We can do much better and Miller's an excellent vehicle for that.

by Strike4 on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 10:59:15 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

I've just spent a month with IA-02, the second most Democratic district in the US held by a Republican (went for Kerry with 62%) and it doesn't show up on these lists, and for good reason (due to lack of interest, going back to chosing a candidate) by the DCCC. What the hell is wrong with Emanuel? Leach (the incumbent) prances around at parades in full Indian head-dress (tosses out feathered "Vote Leach" headbands to kids for extra points) and still wins, as D's just can't get their act together, and no one thinks to help them out. Ugh.

Otherwise, Iowa is a pretty cool place. And this November, just three seats separate the current Red Iowa (Senate is tied, House, Rs lead with one seat) from Iowa going completely Blue (should Culvert beat Nussle, which he should, due to his being legacy and all.) The coattails from the 1st and 3rd could help, but it sucks that the 2nd won't, as two of the four largest Latino counties are in that district. Anyway, if anyone has any inclination to raise cash for state seats which could help now and in 2008 (guarding the vote in a state that went for Bush by less than 5000 votes), a few seats in Iowa could use a hand (Mark Nolte, in Johnson County for one.)

by MBW on Tue Jul 25, 2006 at 11:03:26 PM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

I think if the GOP somehow retains control of the House this year, there will be a lot of anger in the next cycle, and 2008 could emerge as a true wave year (if I were McCain or another Republican presidential hopeful, I'd be rooting for the other side this year). If that happens, Dem-leaning seats with Republican incumbents who have previously gotten a pass will probably be targeted heavily. This seat would be a good example; DE-AL and PA-15 also come to mind. Of course, if we do take the House, we'll also be well-positioned to make gains in these areas, assuming the national sentiment remains in the Democrats' favor.

by slb36cornell on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 11:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

You're working for Brad Miller! I remember him well from when I lived in NC, and I've enjoyed his blog posts since then. Good luck.

by Neil the Ethical Werewolf on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 12:19:07 AM EST

Re: House 2006 Open Thread (none / 0)

I'm glad to see you working for Brad Miller. He's a quality guy. Maybe you could lend Larry Kissell (NC-08) a hand as well - Larry will be as fine a Representative as Miller already is.

by Bear83 on Wed Jul 26, 2006 at 01:29:09 AM EST

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