Yesterday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal published the findings of the latest Harris Poll, the results of which bode poorly for the President and his Republican allies as they go into the last 100 days before election day.
Of 1,002 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 34% said Mr. Bush is doing an "excellent or pretty good" job as president, up a tick from 33% in June. By comparison, 65% of Americans said Mr. Bush is doing an "only fair or poor" job, down from 67% last month.
This is the fourth of the last five major national polls to find President Bush's approval rating to be in the 34 percent to 36 percent range, which represents a noticable drop from the than the 41 percent rating President Bush notched in three national surveys from late June.
If President Bush remains below 45 percent -- let alone below 40 percent -- heading into election day, the Republican Party runs the risk of major losses in both the House and the Senate, potentially losing both chambers. However, if the President's approval rating continues this short downward trend, or even remains in the mid-30s come November, it will be extremely difficult for the GOP to maintain control of either House of Congress. Just take a look at the Democrats' double digit generic congressional ballot lead found by Harris Interactive.
With midterm elections less than four months away, the poll also asked respondents whether they would choose a Democratic or Republican candidate "if the election for Congress were held today." Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, up from 41% in April, while 31% said they would vote for the Republican candidate, down from 37% in April.
Now it is true that these are generic numbers, not actual head-to-head numbers from individual races, and that, what's more, the Democrats are still not close to the 50 percent threshold at which they can begin to feel more optimistic. Nevertheless, the Republicans are at 31 percent in this poll, a truly afwul position to be in this close to the election. And if they are anywhere near this number on generic congressional ballot questions closer to the time at which voters cast their ballots, I am confident that the Democrats will score significant gains in both the Senate and the House.
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