CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll

A third poll has now shown Ned Lamont ahead of Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary for United States Senate. This time, Rasmussen shows Lamont with a solid 51-41 lead (currently, the poll is only available for subscribers to Rasmussen). The previous Rasmussen poll, conducted in mid-June, showed Lieberman ahead 46-40.

Rasmussen has consistently shown better results for Lamont than has the homegrown Q-poll. The reason, as Mystery Pollster notes, is that this race is very difficult to poll. Clearly, the two polling outfits are using different models for likely voters. Because this is such an unusual race, no one knows what the best model would be right now. It is possible that all polls are off.

In a three way race, Rasmussen shows Lamont and Lieberman tied at 40% each, with the Republican at 13%. It is pretty amusing to see just how hapless Republicans are in this race.

Despite these great numbers, this campaign is by no means a lock for Lamont. The entire local and national political establishment has lined up for Lieberman. Ned is going going to need you help volunteering, especially considering the great importance of the ground game in this election. No matter where you live, you can sign up for the Family, Friends and Neighbors program. You can also contribute to Ned on Act Blue where he is matching every contribution you make betwen now and August 8th. We are on the brink of making history here, but it won't happen without your help.



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Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

I have a question for all of you Lamont supporters.  You are complaining about how Lieberman will run as an independent if he loses the primary, and that Democrats should wait out the primary and see who wins/who to support.  My question is, if Lieberman wins the primary, are you all going to support him?  If not, then that is worse than Lieberman going independent if he loses.  I just don't like how Democrats are fighting amongst themselves when we should be focusing on our real opponents, the Republicans.  Too much time and money is being wasted between Democrats - I feel it is time we united and worked to take back the Congress.  I hope all of you agree that even though Joe is not perfect, he is better than the Republicans.  It is better to get someone not perfect than someone horrible.  Joe has a better shot at winning the general than Lamont against the Republican.


by mbfeldma on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 01:49:03 PM EST

You really ought to know the answer to that by now (3.00 / 1)

Yes.


by kilb on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 01:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

"My question is, if Lieberman wins the primary, are you all going to support him?"

Yep.
by Chris Bowers on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, yes, yes (3.00 / 1)

This has always been the case. Lamont supporters will unequivocally support Lieberman if he wins. Can the same be said of Joe Lieberman? Will he abide by the wishes of his Democratic constituents?

And oh, Lamont is going to win. In our eyes, Lamont is the underdog and is down by 15 points against Lieberman. We're not being complacent. We know what a solid GOTV operation can do.


by rosebowl on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

Yes, but I won't say a nice word for him in the blogosphere, give him money, or do any sort of contributing to his campaign. As I'm not a resident of CT, I don't have to deal with voting for him.

But the way things are going, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that he will win the primary.


by PsiFighter37 on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A better shot (3.00 / 1)

The only person who does not have a shot of winning the general election is the Republican, so the argument that Lieberman would do better against the Repubicans does not have much weight. And the Rasmussen poll shows that Lamont and Lieverman would do equally well against the Republican. I have read a ton of blog comments on this race and virtally all of those from Lamont supporters say they would support Lieberman if he wins the primary. This race is about democracy, the right of the people to choose rather than have their "leaders" choose for them. It is not distracting from the efforts to defeat the GOP; it is energizing people in a way that will do the GOP great harm in the Fall elections.


by herodotus on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:24:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (3.00 / 1)

Of course.


by DeborahL on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (3.00 / 2)

I just don't like how Democrats are fighting amongst themselves when we should be focusing on our real opponents, the Republicans.

My advice then would be to lobby state legislatures to ban primary challenges against incumbents.


by DavidNYC on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (3.00 / 1)

LOL!


by John Mills on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I will support the Democratic nominee (none / 0)

Whether it is Joe Lieberman or Ned Lamont.  

Aren't polls like this likely to cause some of Joe's political support to break away (particularly after the primary)?  I always thought part of that support was based on "well, he's almost certainly going to win, so I better stay on his good side."  But that appears less and less certain now.  

If it is a coin flip, do you really go with Joe if you don't like him?  


Saxby Chambliss
by bosdcla14 on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

No!!

But then again, I'm British and live in the UK, so I get to express my disgust for Joe Stalin, or whatever, and don't have to pretend anything.

Sorry, but I just can't tolerate him under any circumstances. What was Al Gore thinking about?

Malcolm


by malc19ken on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

I'm not going to phonebank for the guy, but for christ's sake, no one's going to jump in and play spoiler if the Lieb winds up winning.

It is better to get someone not perfect than someone horrible.  Joe has a better shot at winning the general than Lamont against the Republican.

This is ridiculous. The Republican only has a chance of winning if Holy Joe turns the race into a 3-way.


by scvmws on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:47:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (3.00 / 1)

This is a stupid question- in that I can't imagine anyone saying no. The real question is not a hypothetical- why don't you Lieberman supporters tell him that if he loses the primary he should support the Democratic primary winner?


by bruh21 on Sun Jul 23, 2006 at 12:53:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In response to mbfeldma (none / 0)

I have a question for "all you" Lieberman supporter(s). Are any of the conditions you listed applicable to Lieberman as well?

Are you going to support Lamont if he wins the primary?  If not, what kind of Democrat are you?

Are you focusing on our real opponent here?  In my mind Lieberman IS a Republican--not necessarily because of his political stances (which are firmly in the center, for the most part), but because of his utter refusal to stand with us in opposition to what I consider to be a criminal administration.  

Why does he take the lead in criticizing Democrats, and cozy up to the Bush Administration?  Is that what you call "focusing on the real opponent"?

Is Lieberman's intent to run as an independent YOUR idea of supporting the primary winner, and maintaining Democratic unity in the face of a common Republican enemy?  Wouldn't Lamont be a shoo-in as well if Lieberman would just agree to endorse him, like other good Democrats have done for years?

I'm not a Connecticut resident, and I am giving my campaign contributions elsewhere (Jim Webb mostly) since Lamont has plenty of money already.  If I were a Connecticut voter, yes, I would hold my nose and vote for Joe, just so the Dems might get a nominal majority in the Senate.  Unfortunately, that is a higher priority for me than it is for Joe Lieberman.    


by paul minot on Sun Jul 23, 2006 at 11:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

National support (3.00 / 1)

The entire local and national political establishment has lined up for Lieberman.

The entire national party lined up against Cegelis too, and we lost by two votes a precinct, so the backing of the national party isn't remotely monolithic to overcome. Plus, Lamont has the funds to compete, and the support of the Netroots to get his message out.

As you say, this isn't a lock by a long shot. Just noting that if we keep the heat up, and people do what they can to help out, this is a really winnable race.


Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 02:10:06 PM EST

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

"It is pretty amusing to see just how hapless Republicans are in this race."

That is true today but if the Rs succeed in forcing their current nominee off the ballot, I have read the Rs have some credible candidates in the wing.  THe moment Joementum starting talking about running as an independent I was very concerned about the Rs snatching the seat.  I can't see Rove sitting by when he sees a chance to win something unexpected.  I am a bit of a nervous nellie but we should not discount that possibility.


by John Mills on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 03:05:59 PM EST

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

Really?  Who might that be?  The guy who had his head handed to him by Dodd two years ago?  Get real!

No, the only Republicans who might have a shot at the Senate seat are Nancy Johnson or Chris Shays.  Johnson is engaged in a challenging race, whereas Shays is in a desperate bid to retain his seat in the House.  If Johnson jumps to the Senate race, the Republicans likely lose that House seat.  Ditto for Shays seat.  

The Republicans are trapped between a rock and a hard place on this one.  Even Rell's race is likely to tighten once the primaries are over and done with and the voters return from summer holidays.  She's got a nasty scandal brewing because of some financial shenanigans by her chief of staff.  Rell really hasn't done anything as Governor, so we'll see how she survives being painted with the same corruption tarbrush which every Republican politician carrys around with themselves these days.


by VizierVic on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 10:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (3.00 / 1)

It's impossible to overstate how different things are going to look if Lieberman loses the primary.  He will be severely damaged goods, especially considering that he has a lot of support from the Democratic establishment.

If Lamont wins, the morning after is going to present us with a whole new reality.  I'm sticking with my prediction that Lieberman ends up as a lobbyist for the defense industry.


by global yokel on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 04:06:36 PM EST

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

Interesting stuff. . .I think now Lieberman's at a crossroads.  Because there are four ways this thing can go, and 3 of them work in Lieberman's favor.  The fourth, though, as is indicated in this poll would be deadly.  Here are the four ways this primary can go:

Lieberman wins big (+10 or more) -- obviously, this is the best case scenario, as Lieberman keeps his seat and effectively crushes any opposition.  This scenario is now least likely.

Lieberman wins small (+9 or less) -- Joe's damaged goods, but he can breathe a sigh of relief.  Luckily, he doesn't have to deal with voters for another 6 years.  And given his age, he may retire.

Lamont wins small (+5 or less) -- if this happens, Lieberman can claim that he lost to the blogosphere/blogofascists, run as an Indie, and might reclaim his seat.  This is what Lieberman is anticipating.

Lamont wins big (+5 or more) -- if Lamont wins by more than 5 points, then Lieberman is done.  Who's going to support a guy who just got his ass kicked by a novice?  Where will Lieberman get his money?  He won't get anything, and all his institutional support will leave him.

So, with all that said, expect the next few weeks to be absolutely brutal.  A 10 advantage can be overcome, but only with the most brutal barrage of attacks.  Unfortunately, Lamont is running a nimbler campaign, so there's no guarantee that Lieberman can pull this off.


by Jim Treglio on Sat Jul 22, 2006 at 05:25:02 PM EST

Re: CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll (none / 0)

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