NDN has a new poll out on a key swing group: Spanish-language dominant Latinos.
Among the findings:
In 2004 Kerry beat Bush 59%-40% with all Hispanics, and 52%-48% with those Spanish-dominant. In this survey Hispanics confirmed the closeness of the 2004 result. When asked who "did you vote for in 2004?" the result came back 38%-36% Kerry-Bush.
When asked how they would vote if the Presidential election were held today, this group gives Democrats a remarkable 36-point advantage (59%-23%). For Republicans this is a dramatic drop from the 52%-48% Kerry-Bush result with the Spanish-speaking sub-group in 2004.
Bush's standing with this group has plummeted. In the 2004 cycle, Bush regularly received a 60% favorable rating from Hispanics. In our survey this was reversed, as 38% see him favorably, 58% unfavorably, with 40% very unfavorable towards the President.
Democrats have a very significant advantage in favorability, with a 65%-25% favorable/ unfavorable result. Republicans come in at 41%-51% favorable/unfavorable. For the first time in any Hispanic poll we've seen, The Republican Party is seen more favorably than Bush. It is would not be a stretch to now say that President Bush has become a drag on the Republican Party with Hispanics.
It is important to note than Spanish-language dominant Latinos are not a swing group because they split their vote in 2004. Rather, Spanish-language dominant Latinos are a swing group for the same reason that all Latinos are a swing group: because of the strong elasticity in their voting patterns. It is in this sense that the number one swing group in 2004 was actually white born again / evangelical protestants. Even though Bush won these voters by more than 2-1 in 2000,
they actually swung more than any other demographic group. Other swing groups included Latinos, young voters and Northeasterners. Those were the four groups that shifted the most from 2000 to 2004.
While the survey was hopeful, it found that Democrats face the same problem among Latinos that they face with the electorate at large:
While Democrats have made modest gains with this group, growing from 52% in 2004 to 59%, most of the movement this year has been away from Bush and the Republicans and not towards Democrats.
In a detailed issue battery, while consistently far ahead of Republicans, Democrats regularly under perform their 59% electoral performance and 65% Party favorability. This indicates that while Democrats are well-regarded by this electorate, they are not well defined.
Talk about a recurring problem. There is lots more in the poll,
so check it out.
