As the Democrats have maintained a robust lead in generic congressional balloting for several months, some have questioned whether strong national numbers could actually be parlayed into wins in individual races this fall. But polls released yesterday from two Republican-leaning districts in which a GOP incumbent is facing a credible Democratic challenger indicate that the Democrats are indeed competitive in the campaigns they need to win in order to retake the House this fall.
Public Policy Polling (.pdf) -- NC-11Likely VotersCharles Taylor (R) -- 42
Heath Shuler (D) -- 46With Leaners
Charles Taylor (R) -- 45
Heath Shuler (D) -- 51Momentum Analysis (D) -- OH-2
Jean Schmidt (R) -- 44
Victoria Wulsin (D) -- 44
In 2004, George W. Bush pulled in 57 percent of the vote in North Carolina's 11th district and 64 percent of the vote in Ohio's second congressional district, so by no means was it a foregone conclusion that these races would be so competitive at this point. In fact, the rankings released yesterday by the Cook Political Report (.pdf) do not even list OH-2 as potentially competitive.
While it is true that neither Shuler nor Wulsin are above 50 percent without leaners and that at times when polling has shown Democrats leading but under 50 percent the Democrat has not always gone on to win (think Francine Busby), the Democrats have a real shot at winning in both of these Republican districts.
If enough of these GOP-held districts present the Democrats with an opportunity for a pick-up, the Democrats need not win each one, but only a healthy percentage in order to retake the House in November. And I believe now that the Democrats are fast approaching the threshold at which there are enough Republican seats in play to win.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
