but imagine what might have happened if Busby hadn't made the gaffe. I know we'd like to think that it was meaningless, but I don't think it was. If it helped rally support to Bilbray, then it wasn't meaningless.

All said, the most troubling vision of the night was the continued apathy across the country. Voter turnout continued to be down, and if it remains that way, our task will be tall indeed.

Oh, well--at least we got Tester the nomination!

4,321 votes now separate Busby from bilbray.

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)

Precincts: 500
Counted: 331
Percentage: 66.2%  

Vote for: 1  
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
 44692
 49.69%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
 40371
 44.89%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
 3424
 3.81%

PAUL KING - LIB
 1446
 1.61%

Well, If I have learned anything tonight it is that we can't just sit and play nice saying we'll do better. Busby had a good thing with ethics and she had some good stances, however she didn't have a real plan.

I am convinced now we need to have IN BULLET POINTS an agenda going into November and we might need it as soon as mid August as compared to my earlier thoughts of late Spetember.

It needs Iraq, Immigration, Social Security (can we get the R's 07 strategy done as an ad for us?), Gas Prices (not energy, make it real), and education reform.

There's our platform, now just say what we'll do differently and how if given controll.

Bush is starting to rebound, as he goes up republican congress critters will as well. We need to stop him now, I'm trying in TX-22.

You guys are totally overreacting, in my opinion. I was afraid that this would happen.

Look, elections are not zero-sum games where after every vote the clock is set back to zero and both parties start over with clear slates. A district is comprised of partisans and independents. This district comprised of 50% Republican voters. So why does it surprise you when the Republican wins 50% of the vote? Scandal or not, this was always going to be a tough race to win - like OH-02. We needed Republicans to vote for us for us to win. We didn't get it.

But here's the thing. Independents did vote for us, and OVERWHELMINGLY SO. The national breakdown is (depending on how you calculate it): Democrat 42% Republican 38% and Independent 20%. [Some say it's 35% Dem, 33% Ind. 32% Rep]. If the partisan breakdown holds in November we will win: 58% to 42%. Which would be a NATIONAL LANDSLIDE.

That being said, like OH-02, we made MAJOR GAINS! Picking up more than 18% here, and picking up 20%+ in Ohio. There are a lot of districts out there where the Republicans hold on by SLIM MAJORITIES. And the Republicans can't be giving them all $4.5 million and outspending us 2 to 1.

Tonight was a good night. I wish we had won this race. But we didn't. We always realized that this possibility existed. But we made major gains in a VERY SAFE Republican district, by turning it COMPETITIVE.

What do you think will happen in November to the COMPETITIVE districts.

Our goal now is to look at the independent vote totals (which again, went overwhemingly for us) and calculate the seats up in November where the Democratic and Independent vote will be enough to win. Get out our vote. AND SEIZE CONTROL!

Smile. We have a lot to be happy about.

4,635 votes separate busby from bilbray.

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)

Precincts: 500
Counted: 392
Percentage: 78.4%  

Vote for: 1  
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
 50284
 49.64%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
 45649
 45.06%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
 3790
 3.74%

PAUL KING - LIB
 1584
 1.56%

    According to the Datamar poll (pdf) taken just before the 4/11 special election the breakdown by party of registered voters is 45% Rep 30% Dem and 20.5% Ind.  The breakdown by party and the propensity of the voter to vote reliably is 54% Rep 31.5% Dem 12% Ind.  This means that come November we will see the number of Independents who vote in this election increase and if we look at the SurveyUSA poll taken just before the June 6th election we see that Busby gets 56% support of Independents while Bilbray only gets 31%. That is good news for November but there is more.

   Let's go back to Datamar and look at voters by age group.  Breakdown by age for registered voters is 18-29 15%, 30-49 41.5%, 50-59 23%, and 60+ 21%.  The breakdown for these groups in terms of voting reliability is 18-29 5.5%, 30-49 33.5%, 50-59 32%, and 60+ 29%.  Back to SurveryUSA we see Busby's support among 18-34 at 55% with Bilbray at 35%.  From age groups 35-64 Busby and Bilbray are essentially tied, however in the 64+ category Bilbray leads Busby 52% to 38%.  What does that mean?  It means that Busby will do better in November because her strongest supporters in the 18-34 category don't turn out well and will increase for the general.

   I have stated before and will state again, Busby doesn't need a win in June to win in November.  She just has to be close enough for an increase in voter turnout among her supportive demographics to be able to make the difference.

We had some real victories tonight

We did?  Where?

Are you talking about Tester?  Congratulations, it appears that Democrats can win races against...other Democrats.

Can you point me to even one single victory by a Democrat over a Republican in a national or state election today?  I didn't think so.  

I see no proof that we are able to overcome the status quo, apathy, and generalized disgust at everyone of either party in our current political situation to actually defeat a Republican incumbent or challenger for a vacant seat.  All I see is "moral victory" after "moral victory"...and we should realize that a "moral victory" equals a "real-world loss."

And don't pat Busby on the back for shaving 18% off the margin since two years ago.  Two years ago, she was running against a well-entrenched incumbent riding on the coattails of a popular (for that district) President.  This time, she was running against a former lobbyist in a district where the aforementioned incumbent had been roundly disgraced.  Even the proverbial "ham sandwich" should have been able to take off at least 18%.

It appears that, as of a week ago, Busby had a 7% lead in the polls.  In that one week, there seems to have been a 12% swing toward the Republicans.  Whether it had to do with Busby's amazingly stupid "you don't need papers for voting" gaffe, an unpolled reservoir of Republican strength, or even Diebold rigging the voting machines, it still amounts to the reprise of a depressing old tune:  election day opens with poll-buoyed hopes of a Democratic pickup, and ends with progressives scratching their heads and wondering "what happened?"  Why do we think November 7th is going to be any different (especially since the law of averages dictates that public perception of Bush and his party probably won't be any worse then than it is now)?

Chris I exactly agree with your sentiments, both that Busby's result bodes well for November and that we will not maximize the victory then unless the Party does better now.  In fact, in one way I think this was the best possible result.  By the Republicans winning these close elections in their districts, it lessens their urgency to make the kind of changes they need to recover politically.  Let them keep thinking that they're "fine."  Their not fine.  They are going to get beat badly in November.

I only wish our Party was in a position to maximize the opportunity.

Has the issue of Bilbrays legal residency been resolved? Or does the vote trump that?

I feel like this is a dumb question but I thought a runoff in a multiparty field would only have been the top 2 vote getters--Bilbray and Busby.  Why are there 2 othr candidates from 2 other parties in there as they should have been in the non partisan special.  

why are they on the ballot---without them Busby could be closer.  A lot of disgusted repubs couldn't vote for a Repug but may feel better voting for a Liberal or Independent.  

So again why are they in the race at this juncture?

My thought is that the CA50 shows that "Netroots" is still a work in progress.

While the blogosphere can be useful as a galvanizing force for the true believers, to date, no candidate has taken office based on its influence.

Kos is not Limbaugh yet.

If I am a candidate, I am going to listen to the netroots but not stake my fortunes on what I hear.  Unions can still get more people to the polls.  And a jillion-point TV buy still trumps all.

We'll see what 2008 brings, but right now hubris would seem inappropriate.

Look at these grafs from today's WaPo:

"[In IA-1] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had backed trial lawyer Bruce Braley against former state legislator Rick Dickinson. But with 92 percent of precincts reporting, Dickinson held a 156-vote lead.
. . .
And in California, the DCCC has been boosting Navy veteran and United Airlines pilot Steve Filson as the kind of moderate-to-conservative Democrat who can beat House Resources Committee Chairman Richard W. Pombo, a high-profile target. But in early returns, Filson was losing to Jerry McNerney, a more established face in the district's Democratic politics but a candidate who Democratic strategists on Capitol Hill fear cannot win enough votes in the conservative San Joaquin Valley."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/06/07/AR2006060700357. html

The DCCC should stop trying to annoint candidates in primaries and start building GOTV infrastructure that benefit every district. These candidates that the DCCC supports have no fire in the belly and that's a big loser with independents. We have a two-party system and the DCCC consistently takes the Democratic Party for granted.

I think I want to get a flat-top haircut.  Congratulations to a GREAT candidate who ran a great campaign in a great state.  Jon Tester is a real person and will, with our help, be a truly outstanding US Senator.  He is exactly what the Senate needs -- a progressive who actually has worked for a living with a little dirt under his fingernails.  The Montana Miricle has real Momentum.  That is good news for Montana, great news for the USA.  Jon Tester will need our help but clearly he can do it.

Look at these grafs from today's WaPo:

"[In IA-1] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had backed trial lawyer Bruce Braley against former state legislator Rick Dickinson. But with 92 percent of precincts reporting, Dickinson held a 156-vote lead.
. . .
And in California, the DCCC has been boosting Navy veteran and United Airlines pilot Steve Filson as the kind of moderate-to-conservative Democrat who can beat House Resources Committee Chairman Richard W. Pombo, a high-profile target. But in early returns, Filson was losing to Jerry McNerney, a more established face in the district's Democratic politics but a candidate who Democratic strategists on Capitol Hill fear cannot win enough votes in the conservative San Joaquin Valley."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/06/07/AR2006060700357. html

The DCCC should stop trying to annoint candidates in primaries and start building GOTV infrastructure that benefit every district. These candidates that the DCCC supports have no fire in the belly and that's a big loser with independents. We have a two-party system and the DCCC consistently takes the Democratic Party for granted.

The people overwhelmingly want their candidates to stop messing around with issues that indirectly relate to the problem.

The real problem is that there are fascist criminals in the White House and any true debate will never take place.  It will always be stifled and spun until these bozos are in jail.  These clowns are so poor at leadership they have not done one thing right.  Everything they have done in six years is corrupted and/or disastrous.

They must be removed from office before 2008 or there will not be enough democracy left for this nation to remove them itself.  There are only three ways to remove them: death, resignation, or impeachment.  This is what the people want.  The ghost from Iran-Contra to go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass go, and collect hard time.

No one has volunteered yet to be a martyr, so that's out.  They are not going to resign. They are having too much fun laughing at "poor humanity".  (Thanks for your remarks after Hurricane Katrina, Barbara).  So I guess that leaves us with impeachment.  

Impeachment!
Say it! Use it!
Quote James Madison! Quote the Constitution! Don't be afraid!
The people want to hear it!
The people are ready to hear it!
Hold them accountable!  This is what's wrong!
Not one person has been held to account for six years of failure without one success.  Not one.

If Democrats want to win and win big, show some Cahonas and "Do the Right Thing", remove these people from power and show the world what they tried to do.  If we do it ourselves without the aid of other nations, we will gain respect and credibility again in the world.  If we do not and allow other nations to step in as was done to check Hitler, we will have lost more than just our respect and credibility.  We will have lost our ability to assume a leadership role among nations and our original Constitution will have failed.

Our founding fathers are screaming from the grave with their written works.

"If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." ~James Madison

"It is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to the provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad." ~James Madison

"No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare." ~James Madison

"No political truth is certainly of greater intrinsic value, or is stamped with the authority of more enlightened patrons of liberty, than that on which the objection is founded. The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, selfappointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny."  ~James Madison: Federalist Paper #47

Democrats, the people are awake and waiting!  Do the right thing.  Impeachment.

Fortunately, come November, even Busby will have another chance.

Huh? Does this mean they'll do it all over again for CA-50 in November? Bilbray's only won the seat for a few months?

Bilbury was helped by the improved poll numbers of Arnold Schwarzenegger in that San Diego county and city.

Because it seems to me that the RCCC sunk a significant chunk of its wealth into winning a race that will, of all damned things, be run again in November.

But I'm pretty tired of  "we should be happy we came so close."  

we are living through the most incompetent and self-evidently failed presidency in a long time, possibly u.s. history.  everything is controlled by the president's party, and they vote in lockstep.  they started a war - a war! - that was not justified and which is falling apart.  frankly, if we don't retake both the House and Senate this fall, we are pathetic.  

Forgive my language, but why are we so fucking timid?  I mean despite everything going on in this country, the GOP is pushing to repeal the Estate Tax, a tax that unarguably gets paid only by the obscenely rich and has roughly the fiscal impact of the entire social security deficit.  could your opponent toss you a bigger softball in an election year?  and yet not only aren't we trumpeting this proposal far and wide, some dems are actually proposing a "compromise."  what the fuck?  what the fuck?  could there be a worse idea than cutting the estate tax right now?  these guys peddle ice to the eskimos, and our alternative is to offer them ice water.

The last minute attacks on Busby are par for the course.  I mean how could this derail us?  It's a pathetic attack because YOU DON'T NEED TO BE A REGISTERED VOTER TO HELP A CAMPAIGN.  That is what she said.  Kids work on campaigns.  People come from other districts to volunteer.  Give me a fucking break!  We should be fighting back and calling them for their pathetic deceptive disingenuous electioneering garbage.  Instead it is like a genetic democratic impulse to backtrack, equivocate and "be reasonable."

i'm no political insider, so you can politely explain to me why i'm wrong, how i don't understand how gerrymandering and other factors make CA 50 an uphill battle, how level headed analysts think we probably won't retake the Senate or House.  i'm sorry, it seems simple to me: stop being so incredibly chickenshit and speak the truth about how outrageous and essentially evil the GOP is these days.  for those who think honest, outspoken liberalism would be an electoral disaster, i say we've tried your garbage and it sucks and now shut the hell up.

There was an 18 point swing in the district when the national generic ballot advantage is 10 points.

So the substantive question about CA-50 is: in a district with a jailed congressman, and $X million spent by the NRCC, is 8 points a big swing or a small one?  (I don't know the answer to this, but at least we should pinpoint the right question.)

NB the MSM is completely incapable of careful analysis.  So the right way to capture the effect, I think, is that "Republican have proved that they are going to be able to eke out wins in their eight safest districts in November.  That leaves 213 of their seats in trouble."  (Eight, because the Republicans spent one-eighth of their money on this one.)

I did a swingometer (old school British analysis) on every congressional seat, using Bush's approval ratings.

I compared Bush's state-by-state Survey USA approval rating from the 2004 election and contrasted them with May 2006.  I took the net difference (every state showed a net decline for Bush) and divided the difference by half for Congress.

The swingometer is 8.2% in favor of the Democrats in California.  Busby was projected to lose 50.2-44.7, with 5.1% voting for third parties.

Busby actually did better than my analysis said she would, losing 49.5-45.3, with 5.2% voting for third parties this time around.

My projection shows a net gain of 37 seats for the Democrats (and it'll get updated monthly).  Here are all the seats projected to turn blue:

CA-26, CO-4, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, FL-13, GA-11, IL-6, IN-2, IN-8, IN-9, IA-1, KS-2, KY-3, KY-4, LA-7, MI-11, MN-6, NE-1, NJ-5, NJ-7, NM-1, NY-26, NY-29, NC-5, NC-8, NC-11, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, TX-2, TX-19, TX-22, TX-32, VA-2, WA-8, WV-2, WY-AL.

GOP wins LA-3.

Here it is from my POV-

1./ We had a GOP congressman convicted of bribery, doing time, and a special election is borne-
2./ A lobbyist cut from the same cloth runs against a genuine candidate who would represent ALL in her district, not just the rich and/or wealthy-
3./ The genuine candidate lost

What I thought yesterday-
THE ONLY WAY folks from their party will wake up and vote is if enough GOP folks search their character together with a feeling of obligation to do right, and not vote RIGHT WING-

What I think today-
THE ONLY WAY folks from their party will wake up and vote their conscience is if their elected representative is caught red handed, with their hands in their pockets, stealing THEIR upper tier tax cut money-

Hey wait a minute, isn't the LATTER an exact framework for a campaign to build a message from??? The GOP steals taxpayers dollars, each day, everyday, and unless you want to see another conviction, or be laughed at, ridiculed, and implicated along with them...

Explain again, Mr Bowers WHY, and HOW Francine lost?

I am going to disagree a little with Chris.  This was a tough seat but if we are going to have any chance in November to take over the House we need to win a few of these heavily Repub seats when the wind is at our back.  I know it gets pooh poohed in the netroots but the Repubs have done a tremendous job of gerrymandering House seats in a host of states and it is a problem.  My biggest fear in November is that we lose races like Busby and Hackett because the demographics are so stacked against us in a host of potentially winnable seats.  It is a real problem and Hackett and Busby, both of whom ran good campaigns, give a real indication of the uphill fight we are facing.

I was chatting with a GalfromCal who lived in Orange County and she reported this:

GalfromCal: Did you all hear about EcoPark in LA county?

Rusty~: No. What happened there, GalfromCal? And welcome!

GalfromCal: They changed the voting precincts at the last momemts (sic)

GalfromCal: On Monday they sent out letter notifing the voters

GalfromCal: Mostly Hispanic voters

06/07/2006 07:36 Rusty~: BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
33468
49.59%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
30190
44.74%

GalfromCal: They are putting out that it is low voter turnout, but many people could not find their precincts

GalfromCal: I am in Orange County(Orange Curtain) and I have a personal story being a Democrat

GalfromCal: I went to the Registrar Office today to take my husband's, my daughter's and my absentee ballots, because someone had changed my daughter's registration to Republican

keenekarl: What? How can THAT happen? Has someone been fooling with your daughter's e-mails?

GalfromCal: no, she signed a petition, and it was then that they change her party registration

DRE's Anyone?  Diebold machines fail early on....long enough to update with corrupted software?

How about the judge who summarily dismisses a lawsuit filed for failure to comply with election security protocols citing a Diebold talking point, "Oh there are no crooked election volunteers"?

This article on soapbox4truth pretty much clinches the election fraud perpetrated by the Republicans to steal the last few elections to further their agenda of pandering to the rich.

In 1994 Their was a special election in Wisconsin-1CD to replace Democratic Congressman Les Aspin who became Secretary of Defense. The Democrat Nominee- Peter Barca narrowly won the special election race. but the Republican nominee Mark Neuman won the November General Election race

The Republican Held House Seats Democrats need to win are
1)Arizona-8
2)Colorado-7
3)Connecticut-2
4)Connecticut-4
5)Florida-22
6)Indiana-8
7)Indiana-9
8)Iowa-1
9)Kentucky-4
10)Minnesota-6
11)New Mexico-1
12)New York-24
13)North Carolina-11
14)Ohio-18
15)Pennsylvania-6
16)Texas-22
17)Washington-8

Let's not kid ourselves... last night's loss didn't pave the way for anything, it didn't send a message, it wasn't a battle in a larger war. It was a loss. A loss in a race we could've and should've won.

Yes, the district is tough. EVERY seat in play is tough. That's life. 55% R districts are the only game in town, folks.

And yes, we were outspent 2:1. Get used to that too. Give or take $100k, that's going to be the case all year.

So what have we learned (assuming we're grown up enough to accept that this result was unacceptable)?

(1) This fuzzy "culture of corruption" pablum isn't much of a message. A (very) secondary theme, perhaps, but if running against corruption didn't energize voters HERE, where will it work?

(2) We failed to nationalize the election (read as, Make Bush The Issue) in pointed enough terms. The Rs needed to get local and make people focus on Busby. They succeeded. We failed.

(3) No matter what your consultant tells you, Bush, his character, and his war are the 800 lb. gorillas in the electoral room. This is unchanged since 2004. A failure to acknowledge this and hit it between the eyes fuels notions that Democrats lack the courage of their convictions. It matters little that corruption or gas prices test a few points better among demographic X on any given day. Bush, his war, and where you stand on them today has taken on symbolic value that surpasses anything a poll can quantify. Does that require Risk, God forbid? Yes. But "safe" campaigns get 45%.  

(4) The idea that "anger is on our side" and will fuel its own turnout has to be reconsidered. And I'm probably understating this point. Without a message that genuinely causes blood pressures to rise (see #3), angry Dems and like-minded Indys are NOT overrunning polling places.

Bottom line: The other guys are still faster, meaner and smarter. We have a couple of months to rectify it.      

Are you serious John Mills, watchgeek? There are 150+ Republican held seats that are more competitive (demographically) than CA-50. There are 217 Republican-held seats more competitive (demographically) than OH-02. We lost both seats by 4%.

Gerrymandering had nothing to do with the loss. Demographics did. The reason we lost these seats was because we had a serious demographic disadvantage. Winning was always a long shot. Republicans vote for the Republicans and Democrats vote for the Democrats. Our "victory" last night was how well we did among independents AGAIN! Which is also demonstrated by polls which show us how well we do among independents.

Perspective people, perspective.

Yeah, Jack, I'm serious to the tune of $2.5 million, which is roughly what our side spent. Are you arguing it was worth $2.5m to prove "how well we do among independents?" Of course not. We were in it to WIN. No cash-strapped party committee turns that kind of money loose unless they believe they can pick up the seat, period.

And regardless of how CA50 stacks up against other "competitive" districts, Busby led this race until control of the debate got away from us. No matter how tough one thinks this seat is, it was winnable. If it weren't, there was no point in spending penny #1.

While I don't know what criteria you use to dub a "demographically" competitive district as such, how much more hospitable an environment could've you have asked for here? Open seat; an up-ballot D primary to assist turnout; a recently convicted incumbent; low and thus easily skewed turnout; a wrong direction number in the 60s.

Granted, San Diego isn't the ideal spot to take your shot, but when you need as many seats as we do, you have to figure out a way to win where opportunity presents itself. Waiting for 15 open seats to materialize in more demographically favorable districts (NJ, NY, CT and PA, perhaps?) is not an option.

With all due respect, the horseshoes and hand grenades, look-on-the-bright-side stuff only prevents us from finding a better way to do business.    

The sound of people whistling past the graveyard here is deafening.  So is the echo-chamber effect of true believers trying to reassure each other.

Look, Busby did a whole great wonking 3% better than Kerry did in that district in 2004.  

That is the relevant comparison.  

It's always tough to take on an incumbent (as was the case in 2004).

But this was an OPEN SEAT, folks, in which the previous GOP rep was IN JAIL for BRIBERY.  Plus Bush at 31%, yadda yadda.

And we got a miserable extra 3% over the national result for 2004.  Wooooopieeee!  

Face it; only the genuinely competitive seats are really in play this fall.  And there are only about 33 genuinely competitive House seats.

There isn't going to be any great Democratic wave in November.  The nation is not going to rise up and cast out the GOP, slapping themselves on the forehead and crying "How could we have been so blind!" and becoming MoveOn.org types in a Saul-on-the-road-to-Damascus fashion.

There's going to be some swing in our favor -- we'll take between 10 and 15 seats in the House, maybe 1-4 in the Senate, with 2-3 most likely.  Pretty standard stuff for the 'outs' in a midterm, particularly if the Prez is in his second term himself.

We may win the House; if we do, it will be by such a razor-thin margin that we'll be unable to do anything significant with it, and if we try we'll end up lying on the floor spitting teeth and wondering what hit us -- a distressingly familiar sensation for Democrats these last 40 years or so.

2008 is still a tossup, in which the maximum probability is that McCain beats Hillary.

As for those who say we should have the "courage" to run an antiwar campaign... I direct you down memory lane, to the end stages of a much bigger, much worse managed, and much more unpopular war than Iraq, in which we did exactly that.

Do the words "McGovern" and "1972" ring any bells?  As in "we win one state"?  As in "we got CRUSHED"?

Christ, that one screwed us so badly we still haven't recovered.  The period 1968-72 was when we stopped being the majority party.  Guess why?

A lot of Democrats don't realize what country they're living in.  They think America is somehow like, or could be like, Denmark or France or Italy.  Maybe from the perspective of Boston common or the People's Republic of Berkeley it looks that way.

But take a look at the county-by-county results from 2004, to get a more accurate picture.

In point of fact the USA as a country is more like Turkey or Iran.  

It's a very religious, deeply nationalistic country in which conservatives outnumber liberals by 2 to 1... a gap which demographics is increasing every year.  Polls consistently show the most trusted institutions in American life are the military, the police, and organized religion.

What's the single most accurate predicator of whether a district will vote Democratic these days?  Lack of children.

Liberals used to be able to punch above their weight because of the FDR-era Democratic coalition... but the left wing of the Democratic party willfully destroyed that coalition, and now it's paying the price.  

Our problem is not that we're not getting the message out.  Our problem is that people are not buying it.

Well it wasn't an 18% shift because in 2004 Busby ran against an incumbent.  The more troubling figure is 44%. That's the Kerry % in the dist. and the vote Busby received two years later.

Oh, and note that there was a right-wing challenger who got 3.7%

This is supposed to be the DEMOCRATIC party.  Democracy means majority rule!  Not the judicially-enforced diktat of the bien-pensant trendies!

In FDR's time and JFK's for that matter, liberalism didn't mean being the captive of fringe groups or thinking America was a menace to the world.

It meant a muscular, nationalistic foreign policy abroad (see JFK's inaugural address) and being for the little guy at home -- the steelworker, the farmer, the coal miner, the secretary and housewife.

The people who now, through our own bizzare incompetence, mostly vote for Republicans.

We haven't won the white working class in some time.  In fact, we haven't gotten 51% of the total vote in a national election since 1964! (The Republicans have done that seven times.)

And we're not doing so hot among Hispanics any more -- on the 2004 record, the GOP is now fully competitive with Latino voters.  Bush carried New Mexico (where I live) and this is a Hispanic-majority state, or close to it.

sexe

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kazaa  
jeu-video-gratuit
jeu-pc-gratuit
jeu-gratuit-pour-enfant     
jeu-gratuit-cadeaux      
jeu-gratuit     
jeu-de-voiture-gratuit      
jeu-adulte-gratuit      
icq     
horoscope-gratuit      
hentai-gratuit      
gros-sein-gratuit     
gratuite4     
gratuite3     
gratuite2      
gratuite      
gratuit4      
gratuit3      
gratuit2      
gratuit     
gay-gratuit      
fond-d-ecran-gratuit      
firefox      
film-x-gratuit     
film-porno-gratuit      
emule-gratuit      
emule      
emoticones      
emoticone-gratuit      
edonkey      
ecran-de-veille-gratuit      
download      
divx-gratuit     
divx2      
divx     
cul-gratuit     
clone     
clip-gratuit     
chat-gratuit      
chansons-gratuit      
chanson-gratuit      
avatars     
avatar      
ares      
antivirus-gratuit     
antivirus2      
antivirus      
ad-aware      
acrobat    

telechargement-parole      
telechargement-nero      
telechargement-musique     
telechargement-music      
telechargement-msn      
telechargement-mp3     
telechargement-messenger     
telechargement-logiciels      
telechargement-logiciel-gratuit      
telechargement-logiciel      
telechargement-kazaa     
telechargement-gratuit2      
telechargement-gratuit      
telechargement-film-gratuit      
telechargement-emule      
telechargement-divx      
telechargement-chansons      
telechargement-chanson      
telechargement-antivirus      
telechargement2      
telechargement      
tarot-gratuit     
sudoku-gratuit      
spybot      
sms-gratuit     
skype     
shareaza     
sex-gratuit-beurette      
sex-gratuit      
sexe-gratuit      
sexe-amateur-gratuit     
real-player     
porno-gratuit      
photo-sex-gratuit     
photo-sexe-gratuit      
photo-porno-gratuit      
photo-gay-gratuit      
paroles-gratuit      
parole-gratuit      
nero-gratuit     
nero     
musiques-gratuites      
musique-gratuite      
music-gratuite     
msn-gratuit           
msn2     
msn      
mp3-gratuit      
morpheus     
messenger-gratuit      
messenger      
logiciels-gratuit      
logiciels2     
logiciel-gratuit      
logiciel2      
logiciel      
limewire      
kazaa-gratuit    

xxx-gratuit      
winzip      
winrar     
winmx      
winamp      
vlc     
video-x-gratuit      
video-sex-gratuit     
video-sexe-gratuit      
video-porno-gratuit      
video-gratuit3      
video-gratuit2     
video-gratuit