Chris, are you sure that those are all of the absentees?

projected. What we have so far totals about 40,000 absentees. So does that mean only 2/3 of the absentees have been counted? If so, wouldn't that interpolate into a 5,000 Bilbray lead after all absentees are counted? Or are Pelosi's figures wrong on the total number of absentees? She may be using ballots sent out. That does not necessarily mean they were all returned.

besides the absentees. Either that or the official results page is pretty sloppy because it says at the very top in bold letters that it is absentee votes only.

Go to the link:

http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress. xml

Can we get an accurate precinct count?  The April CA-50 special lists 445 total.  Now we're suddenly up to 500?

Er, two posts down you said that if Busby is more than 4% behind after the absentees Bilbray will win. We're way past that margin. Was the previous observation wrong or am I somehow not understanding the math.

Also, it seems like everyone except the folks tallying the Guvy race have decided to go home for the night. The only race getting updated is the Gov primary; everyone else is still stuck on absentees.

But Barabara BOXER endorses Angelides.  ANGELIDES is obviously the progressive candidate in this race.  And as blogswarm has sagely noted, Westley is DLC.  ANGELIDES must therefore win the primary.

It's been 90 minutes since the polls closes, and still no new update on CA-50.   Usually you see at least a few trickling in by now...  

WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS AS OF NOW? I'M TRYING TO FIND THE HARD NUMBERS BUT CAN'T.

Here is a question Chris, to which I have no answer: Did they collapse precincts during the special to save some cash?  If you turn on KCRA right now you can see me blogging in the background :)

Looks like more than half of the Republicans voted for someone else in the primary race.

BUSBY, BUSBY!

This is hilarious. Wizbang is already trying to declare Bilbray the winner in the race:

http://politics.wizbangblog.com/2006/06/ 07/california-district-50.php

In case they try and change it I got the screen shots here:

http://www.intoxination.net/2006/06/07/t he-right-trying-to-declare-victory-alrea dy-in-ca-50/

Jamie
http://www.intoxination.net

Another interesting Republican Primary is CA-04, in which incumbent John "15%" Doolittle is pulling about 65% against his challenger, Mike Holmes, Mayor of Auburn (note that the Auburn mayor is not even directly elected -- Holmes is just a city council member).

15% Doolittle has spent $862K on this race.  Holmes has spent only $65K.

Holmes, incidentally, has not said he'll endorse Doolittle if he runs.  

According to SoS office in California, new numbers for the 50th will be in around 10:15PM Pacific time.

...where was the $10 million number coming from? Was that the total number of republican money from Bilbray and outside orgs?

Still though, the RNC will probably be about $100 million short when you take the US Senate into account. You get severely diminishing returns with money after a certain point.

Chris,

When you talk about how much money Republicans spent defending this seat, it is really impressive how much they had to throw at this race.  However, it's equally important to see how much Busby/DCCC spent on this race, because although it'll be impossible for the Republicans to come up with $600 million to defend those 55 House seats, it'll be even more difficult for the Dems to raise that kind of money (of course, assuming equal amounts were spent, which I'm sure is not the case).  Also, it would be good to see how much was spent just for Brian Bilbray (his primary + general spending + NRCC spending).

with 13.2% now reporting Bilbray leads by 3,042, a gain of 31 votes for Busby for almost 2% of the vote. Of course, it all depends on where it came from.

Busby down by 3,500.

As for the newly arrived precincts: the Registrar consolidates precincts prior to every election (based on predictions of turnout).  As the special election was presumed to have a lower turnout, then it makes sense that there would be more consolidations in that election.  Ergo, more precincts counted in this election.  

On another note, it looks like Bilbray has got a hard 3,000 vote lead.  20% reporting, Bilbray 24786, Busby 21269.

and Ifeel like this is a dumb question but I thought a runoff in a multiparty field would only have been the top 2 vote getters--Bilbray and Busby.  Why are there 2 othr candidates from 2 other parties in there as they should have been in the non partisan special.  why are they on the ballot---without them Busby could be closer.  A lot of disgusted repubs couldn't vote for a Repug but may feel better voting for a Liberal or Independent.  

So again why are they in the race at this juncture?

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP       28568        49.67%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM     25605     44.52%
W. GRIFFITH - IND     2340     4.07%
PAUL KING - LIB     998     1.74%

BUSBY CONTINUES TO CLOSE THE GAP!!!
30.2%

What was the margin/pattern in the 2004 race?
What are the differences?
What are different?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Could some one point me to the right place to look.

There's a link on the top of the page.

.....then we're only 10K into the actual voting, which ought to be more favorable for Busby. she should gain steam starting very soon. I like these chances.... 50/50.

Busby has picked up 554 votes over the past 10% of total precincts (the precincts between 20% and 30% reported). If she continues to pick up 550 every 10% of precincts, she'll make up another 3,878 votes. She now trails by 2,963. So that would mean a victory for her.

Of course, we have no idea where these results are coming from, so this is all hogwash anyway. But just to keep y'all entertained...

to 3300 votes with 35.6% counted.  

YIKES! Gap widens a little.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP       30683        49.80%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM     27383     44.44%
W. GRIFFITH - IND     2489     4.04%
PAUL KING - LIB     1063     1.73%

35.6% Reporting...

It's going to be going all night.  

And for more on California races, check out Calitics.

The Lt. Gov race will be going all night too.  With the problem in Alameda Cty, we likely won't know until late morning.

Prop 82 looks to be going down, but don't be surprised if Prop 81 makes a strong comeback.  The later voters tend to push propositions toward the liberal position.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP       33468        49.59%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM     30190     44.74%
W. GRIFFITH - IND     2688     3.98%
PAUL KING - LIB     1139     1.69%

42.4% Reported.

I am wondering why things are going so slow!!!

At this rate...if the numbers hold as they are, Busby will lose 48% to 46%. Unless there are a lot of Democratic counties that have not reported.

Does anyone know whether there are any such Democratic counties that need to report?

I'm going to bed.  Good win by Tester, though.  

I don't think it's going to happen.

Bilbray will get under 50%, but Busby will lose. That's what I'm saying and now I'm heading to bed.

Hopefully I can be wrong and Busby wins.

The wingnuts have been solid. It seems that what this shows is that wingnut districts cannot be won but can get close. So the Nov strategy ought to be to push for wins in those districts where Dems and Indys are the majority and for tough fights in wingnut districts to drain the Repub coffers.

We'd need to get 55% of the vote in the remaining districts to pull off a victory.

I stand by my earlier prediction. Which was, we lose:

Bilbray (R): 48%
Busby (D): 46%

Which is not bad considering everything. A district where we are underdogs by 20% - to lose by only 2%. A moral victory to be sure. Busby will be in a good position for November, where she'll get another shot. If these numbers hold for November (where we wont be outspent 2 to 1) I think we will retake the House and probably the Senate.

[But I hope I'm wrong and we win this thing tonight. But I seriously doubt it]