Early Election Returns Thread

Polls close in Montana in about thirty-five minutes, and in California one hour later. If anyone has good websites to follow the returns, please post them in the comments. I will be reading Swing State Project and Hotline on Call. Both alrady have good info on the non-Montana and California elections. As per usual, when it comes to my comments, the newest ones will be up top.

MT-Sen
  • Tester will need resources for the general election against Burns, who has millions in the bank. Visit the combined netroots page.

  • I now project Tester as the winner in Montana. With 19,000 votes counted, Tester is crushing Morrison 64.8%--32.9%. There were only 55,000 votes cast in the 2002 primary. Morrison barely won his Yellowstone stronghold. I'm calling this one. This is a truly remarkable victory for Montana, and for the netroots. Wow--a huge win.

  • By the way, I'm now using the Billings Gazette and the Tester blog instead. Much better than the other site.
  • Tester 5,615--2,806. Its 2-1 for Tester now.
  • Tester 4,706--2,459 Morrison. These are all absentee, and I don't want to get over-confident, but how could Morrison really come back from an absentee deficit like this?
  • Tester 3,726--2,021 Morrison. Wow--great results for Tester so far. This might be over before CA-50 gets going.
  • Tester 1,878--Morrison 1,453. Good start for Tester, but it is early. Just so you know, I added the results on this page to the absentee totals from Yellowsotne County, a Morrison stronghold.
  • Polls have closed in Montana. Follow results at this website. Join the local crowd over at Left in the West.
CA-50
  • BigDog's absentee ballot thesis holds. Bilbray's total in absentee balltos is almost identical to the total for all Republicans in absentee ballot in the primary for CA-50. Absentee voters go straight party line. However, tonight absentee votes will not be as much of an impact as they had on April 11th. Combined with Tester's win in Montana, could we be witnessing a huge, huge night for the netroots?
  • Strike my earlier comment. If these are the only absentee votes, then things actually look good for Busby. She is only down by 3,000 votes, with fewer than 40,000 votes counted. I like those odds. However, I still don't know if those were all of the absentee votes.
  • 11% of absentees reporting. Bilbray 50.6%--42.9% Busby. Considering how quickly these results came in, it must be only absentees so far.
  • Polls have closed in California. Use this website to folloow returns (scroll about healfway down). They key will be the absentee totals, which will probably be reported in about an hour. If Busby is tied or ahead in absentees, she will win. If Busby is down by more than 4%, Bilbray will probably win. If it is between 1% and 4% lead for Bilbray, expect a close race and a long night.
  • Reports of low turnout.
Others
  • The Democratic nominee for Governor in Alabama will be Lucy Baxley.
  • The Democratic nominee for Governor in South Dakota will be Jack Billion. That will be a big state this year, and he carries a lot of weight on his shoulders.
  • In Alabama, Roy Moore is getting crushed, 67-33, in the Republican primary for Governor. Ha ha.
Don't forget about the BlogPac fundraiser. Visit the combined Netroots Page



Display:


Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

The official results from the Cal. Sec. State are here:

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000 .htm


by jwb on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:01:34 PM EST

Cal Results--Close Races Won't Be Decided Tonight (3.00 / 1)

As I just posted in Breaking Blue, Alameda County is using paper ballots, and doesn't expect to have them counted until around noon tomorrow.  With 5.7% of the Democratic vote, that means that any really close statewide race is not going to be decided tonight.


by Paul Rosenberg on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:33:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

VA. senate??? anyone?


by tommy on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:02:13 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

VA Senate is next week, June 13.


by howardpark on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

That's not tonight.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

Hotline reports that the NRCC chair is making predictions "based on an analysis of absentee returns in CA 50". Do they already have absentee returns, or is he making guesses based on numbers from previous elections? Is it legal for them to have information on returns for this election?

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/a rchives/2006/06/from_the_chairm.html


by DeborahL on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:21:33 PM EST

It's Entrails, Baby! (none / 0)

More nerve endings there than in the ballot box.


by Paul Rosenberg on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

If they know the partisan breakdown of absentee ballots, they could make an esitmate. I made a similar eastimate back on April 11th that was accurate within 1%. Howeer, isnce they are not releasing that breakdown, I wouldn't trust what they say. For all we know, they might be splitting the indy absentees down the middle. Taht would mean Buisby is ahead.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:55:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Voting today in Los Angeles (none / 0)

We used paper ballots, so I would assume that would add to counting time.  

The polling place I went to was mildly busy---I had about a 5 minute wait for a booth.  Although if I were a Republican, I could have walked right in---the Republican booths were empty.  Of course, its Los Angeles, and the most interesting race (Governor) was on the Democratic ballot.  


Saxby Chambliss
by bosdcla14 on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 10:49:31 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

where are the montana results coming from?  the Missoulian.com site crashed for a bit about a 1/2 hour ago and hasn't updated since.


by ksh on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:01:31 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

nevermind.  it's back up.  looks great so far for Tester!


by ksh on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

Are the GOP v. Dem vote totals anything to pay attention to? In the first 40 precincts, Dem turnout is significantly higher in the Senate primaries. Possibly this is because the Dem primary is more interesting (no incumbent)? But then there are other GOP races on the ballot.


Saxby Chambliss is a disgrace.
by ATL Dem on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:18:44 PM EST

progressmontana? (none / 0)

The "Montana" link under state blogs here on MyDD goes to progressmontana.com, which has been no more than a MySQL error message all day.  I tried it this morning and again now, same error.  Does anyone know what's up with that blog?  Should the link be changed, or is progressmonatana alive and just needs some attention?


by cos on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:28:45 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

fuckin' a.  i bet matt singer is crapping gold bricks right about now.

BTW chris - what is "porojecting"?  is that some disease you get from blogging in your jammies?  LOL


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:29:42 PM EST

Marcy vs. Harman (none / 0)

Link for that race?

Tim


by Tim Tagaris on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:30:26 PM EST

Re: Marcy vs. Harman (none / 0)

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/
by Chris Bowers on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Marcy vs. Harman (none / 0)

here


by Paul Rosenberg on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Marcy vs. Harman (none / 0)

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/3600 .htm

there ya go tim.  looks bad for marcy right now.


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

The CA Secretary of State's Website is Reporting with "11.4% ( 57 of 500 ) precincts reporting" Busby = 12,036 Votes, Bilbray = 11,071 Votes. Don't know what to think.  http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000 .htm


by mistabaka on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:42:10 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

those results are the primary for the November general election. the special election results can be viewed here: http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress. xml


by johnny longtorso on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:44:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

For those of you interested:

Phil Angelides 47.1%
Steve Westly 43.9%

That's also with only 11% of the votes in.

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/00.htm

Also, i'd like to note that Democrats who voted in the San Diego area (where CA-50 is located) out drew the Republicans by more than 2 to 1. Busby is winning her primary with 90% of the vote; whereas Bilbray is winning with only 52% of the Republican vote.

We still have a good shot here. Remember the special election in the fall where all of Arnold's initatives were well ahead in the beginning. Then slowly, as the night progressed we began picking up steam and eventually won the night. Absentee voting always goes Republican in California - especially in a heavily Republican district like CA-50.

Boys and girls, it's about to get A LOT closer very soon.


by JackBourassa on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:43:27 PM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (3.00 / 1)

Interesting to note:
Republican votes in primary so far: 20,965
Votes for Bilbray in special election: 20,448

Democratic votes in primary so far: 13,441
Votes for Busby in special election: 17,329

Looks like the independents are clearly breaking for Busby. We'll see if that is enough in such a Republican district.


by kasper11 on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:55:27 PM EST

good math (none / 0)

i like those numbers.  thanks for pointing that out.

dammit, i was going to go to bed.  but i'm giving this thing at least another half hour to 45 minutes.

i want good news before i go to bed!


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 11:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why aren't more votes coming in? (none / 0)

I don't know what they're using in San Diego, but it would seem that they should have some votes coming in.

Unless there were long lines waiting to vote for Busby!

Happy thought (fantasy?)

But better than paranoia about backdoors to the voting machine software.


by Reptile on Wed Jun 07, 2006 at 12:01:12 AM EST

Re: Early Election Returns Thread (none / 0)

Morrison losing Yellowstone County is a big deal considering it is the largest county in the state.

There are more people in a Wal Mart on any given day than some counties (like Petroleum) but Yellowstone has about 1/6th of the state's population.


by guachi on Wed Jun 07, 2006 at 12:20:09 AM EST

A tip of the cap (none / 0)

Tester was not my first choice in the primary, but he and his staff deserve alot of credit.   I know on this and many other blogs there is alot of fighting between wings of our party, but this is one DLC guy who is hopes everyone gets behind Tester for a good win in November.


by ditka on Wed Jun 07, 2006 at 12:36:38 AM EST


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