My secret super duper Senate sources are telling me that this bill has a long way to pass. To take a small example, the broadcast flag, which the EFF detests, passed in the Senate Committee, but Senator Sununu made it clear that he's going to revisit the issue on the floor. There are also concerns about new tax measures in the bill, which will prompt more fighting on the floor. Stevens just doesn't have the 60 needed to pass the measure, and it's not clear that Frist even wants to schedule the time for it. In addition, the partisanized nature of the net neutrality vote means that Senators are becoming entrenched.
Still, Ted Stevens is an unbelievably crafty Senator, and he's going to work the Senate and negotiate in earnest. The turnaround from his first version of this bill, which was derided as a Christmas-tree DOA piece of legislation, to this committee vote, should disabuse us of our illusions about his abilities. He's going to want this to come to the floor in July, when there's less attention.
Verizon/AT&T/Comcast/Cox have their eyes on the ball. They are focused and dedicated to winning this legislative fight, no matter how much brand equity they destroy for themselves in the process. These companies are truly coming out of the closet as the newest Walmarts/Enrons. If the were smart, the telco execs would just let this bill die. People don't really like these companies, but they don't care that much. To the extent that the internet starts to malfunction, there will be intense anger. And that might create a serious political backlash that could lead to anything from municipalities offering broadband, a telecom windfall profit tax, a return to open access, or even investigations of executive misbehavior and excessive pay. Showboating populist politicians do weird things when they've found a good villain, and that's what these companies are creating right now. Adelphia, MCI, - these scandals don't look good for the industry.
In terms of electoral impact, this vote could hurt both Conrad Burns and George Allen badly. Burns spends a lot of time in hiis reelection campaign talking about the tech jobs he's bringing to Montana, because young people leaving the state is a serious problem. Giving away the internet to phone and cable companies is not good for him, though he may not realize that's what he's done. George Allen is facing Jim Webb in Montana, and there's a lot of tech in that state, particularly in northern Virginia.
Oh, yeah, and both Tester and Webb are netroots candidates. It's all connected, in a kind of circle of netroots. Or something like that.
Hakuna mattata.
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