Republicans may get a major wake-up call on Tuesday because of immigration.

John Jacob, a political neophyte, has ridden anxieties over immigration into striking distance of unseating Rep. Chris Cannon in the 3rd Congressional District race, according to a Salt Lake Tribune poll.

The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Monday through Thursday, found Eagle Mountain businessman Jacob and five-term congressman Cannon in a dead heat with 44 percent of voters favoring Cannon to 41 percent for Jacob, leaving enough voters on the fence to throw the race either way.

The issue is immigration, which is what the GOP is going to run on in 2006.  The Republican base wants to criminalize immigration, as usual, but it's particularly intense this year.

The effect of immigration is clear in the poll conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, with 91 percent of those surveyed saying it was somewhat important or very important. Among Jacob voters, 97 percent say immigration is an important issue of the campaign. And 69 percent of Jacob voters say immigration is the primary reason they would vote for him. Nearly as many Cannon voters (64 percent) say it is the driving issue in voting for their candidate.

Jacobs is a weird guy, who claims that Satan is obstructing his campaign.  And Bush's approval ratings in Utah are actually high, higher than in any other state.

It seems as if conservative voters are voting against Bush, because they see him as soft and untrustworthy.  They aren't going to vote for Democrats, but it is possible to keep them from the polls since a vote for an R this year is effectively a vote to continue Bush's policies.