Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal

Aside from the generic Congressional ballot numbers, one of the more interesting pieces of data from the latest USA Today / Gallup poll released tonight focuses on the American presence in Iraq.

Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer?

Withdraw immediately: 17 percent (19 in March, 19 in Nov.)
Withdraw in 12 months' time: 32 percent (35 in March, 33 in Nov.)
Withdraw, take as many years as needed: 42 percent (39 in March, 38 in Nov.)
Send more troops: 6 percent (4 in March, 7 in Nov.)

You might say that the trend is moving towards the stay the course position and you would be correct. But consider two points.

  1. More Americans believe today that we must withdraq from Iraq within the next 12 months than believed we should withdraw from Vietnam within 12 months in the summer of 1970; and,
  2. Just shy of a majority of the country believes America should be getting out of Iraq even after the dog and pony show put on by George W. Bush.

Is it a good thing that Al-Zarqawi is no longer leading a terrorist movement in Iraq? Probably. But the death of Zarqawi will not alleviate the inter- and intra-sect tensions that afflict Iraq today, nor will it make Iraq's security forces competent overnight. Put another way, things aren't likely to get better in Iraq any time soon solely as a result of Zarqawi's death. And given this fact, if the President can't get anywhere near a majority behind his plan for Iraq at this relative high point in public support for his policies, it's nearly inconceivable that he will ever again be able to marshall the support of the American people for his Iraq strategy.



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Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

The thing of it is, I'm not sure there's such a big difference between a lot of those "12 month time-table" people and those who favor staying the course.  Not in substance, at least.

That is, I suspect in six months many of those people will still be saying "Let's give it another year", in another six months they'll be saying the same thing, etc.  I think it's more of a symbolic position (that is, these people don't favor an indefinate presence in the region but aren't really committed on a time table) than a popular ultimatum at this time.  But that's just my impression.


by Ryan Anderson on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 02:03:30 AM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

The President may not be able to get the people behind his Iraq strategy again. But does he really need to?

The administration is simply attempting to bleed off some of the passion.

They have already done this with Iran.


by Judeling on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 02:05:13 AM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

It will be intresting to see if the republicans will be able to regain some Momentum with the news that Rove won't be indicted and that Zarqawi is dead.  It's a little unseemly that the republicans would use someone's death for political purposes, but that's republicans for you.

They know what's coming, and they're fighting back.


by delmoi on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 02:07:34 AM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

This latest strategy is nothing but political smoke and mirrors. The President is not interested in getting more people to support his policy in Iraq - that is simply impossible. What he is doing is trying to divide the Democrats so that our position is so muddled and incoherent, that come this November, the Republicans will make a "devil you know" argument.


by JackBourassa on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 05:24:34 AM EST

Edit needed? (none / 0)

maybe I need more coffee, but shouldn't this:

Just shy of a majority of the country believes America should be getting in Iraq even after the dog and pony show put on by George W. Bush.

be this:

Just shy of a majority of the country believes America should be getting out of Iraq even after the dog and pony show put on by George W. Bush.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 07:17:59 AM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

What the poll does not ask is just as important and telling.  The poll does not ask those who support withdrawal at a later date or sending more troops what would be the goal they hope to attain in time.  Do they want to stay to make sure the iraqis can take over security in Iraq?  Or do they want to stay until the current government is functioning properly?  Or do they want to stay just long enough to make sure that if Iraq goes to hell in a handbasket it won't spill over into neighboring countries and become a regional, low level - or high level - war?


by El Loco on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 09:37:19 AM EST

How Will We Debate Withdrawal? (none / 0)

It's great to talk about withdrawal strategies.  The problem is that today's Republican-led debate on the Iraq War shows that they are not serious about anything other than "Stay the Course." Watch on C-SPAN.

The only way to even bring up withdrawal on the floor of the House (rather than spout off on TV or in op-ed columns) is to sign the Discharge Petition for H. Res. 543 to force the House Leadership to hold a real debate on the war.  543 will work if it gets a simple majority (218 signatures), but it can only work if people all around this country call their reps and ask them to sign.

543 calls for a debate under an open rule, which means that ANY amendment can be proposed, discussed, and voted on.

Visit Open Iraq Debate to see if your Rep has signed, and how you can call them to ask them to sign 543.


by keshini on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 11:03:23 AM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

When people have various options like this, I feel like it can skew the results.  If you asked, "Should the U.S. begin withdrawing troops as soon as possible or should they stay as long as Bush feels they need to finish the job" you'd probably have a lot more people wanting withdrawal.  And the bottom line is as long as Bush is commander in chief, saying a "withdrawal when needed" basically means at Bush's discretion.


by BringtheFight on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 04:39:44 PM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

Read an analysis that discusses the impact the Democratic message on Iraq may have on the midterm elections...here:

www.thoughttheater.com


by Daniel DiRito on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 04:56:37 PM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

You forgot to mention the fact that the earth is flat.


by blues on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 09:47:45 PM EST

Re: Plurality of Americans Still Favors Withdrawal (none / 0)

The press is bombarding the public with the message that now that Zarqawi is dead, the insurgency will collapse. So, of course, Bush seems vindicated. Wait a month or two until it becomes clear that the violence is not going down.


by antiHyde on Fri Jun 16, 2006 at 09:00:15 AM EST


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