Dems Solidify Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

With the latest round of polling showing President Bush inching up a point or two, it comes as no surprise to see the headlines of the major outlets proclaiming a "Bush bounce." (These headlines of course ignore the CBS News survey showing the President's approval rating down two points in a month.) But perhaps the more interesting piece of information from these polls is that although George W. Bush seems to have arrested his precipitous decline in the polls, Congressional Republicans are actually polling worse today than in other recent surveys.

USA Today / Gallup Poll (Bush up 2 points from previous poll)

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district? (Registered Voters)

Democratic Candidate: 51 percent (51 percent in early June)
Republican Candidate: 39 percent (42 percent in early June)

*   *   *   *   *

NBC News / Wall Street Journal (Bush up 1 point from previous poll) [.pdf]

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections--a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?  

Democrat-controlled Congress: 49 percent (45 percent in April)
Republican-controlled Congress: 38 percent (39 percent in April)

Do the Democrats need to do more to make voters want to vote for them instead of just against the Republicans? Certainly. Does this effort need to begin sooner rather than in the last few weeks of the election? Of course. Do the Democrats need to work twice as hard over the next few months to ensure that they are not out-maneuvered by GOP operatives? Definitely.

But are Congressional Republicans slipping even while President Bush is remaining stagnant or perhaps inching up slightly? Apparently. And these numbers should worry Republicans much more than they do Democrats.



Display:


good point, but... (none / 0)

the previous gallup poll was conducted a few days ago. and the one before that (4/28-30) showed a 15 point advantage for democrats. so for that poll, i would interpret the previous (6/1-4) one as statistical noise and the general trend to be a few points shaved off our advantage.

but your point still definetly holds water, and the GOP should be worried out of its mind. i just thought i should point that stuff out about the gallup poll.


by b1oody8romance7 on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 12:55:36 AM EST

Re: good point, but... (none / 0)

and i think i should also point out that in the june 1-4 poll, gallup had a 15 point advantage in its "regular" voters measure. for the more recent poll, that advantage shrank to 5.


by b1oody8romance7 on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 01:01:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good point, but... (none / 0)

There's something funky in that number. Certainly it could be the case that registered voters and national adults are moving in a different direction than are regular voters -- and in such a different direction -- but it's not very likely. If this trend is continued in future polls, I'll buy it, but until then I'm a little incredulous.


My Direct Democracy
by Jonathan Singer on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 01:22:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems Solidify Lead (none / 0)

The media and the Republicans are really pushing this "Bush Bounce" angle aren't they?

I mean after a week of pretty good news: Zarqaui, Rove not being indicted, the surprise photo-op...huh, I mean trip to Iraq; the fact that Bush is still at 38% (and I think that's being generous) is pretty bad.

Let them spin it any which way they want, the Bush Presidency will be over if the Democrats take the House and/or Senate.


by JackBourassa on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 01:01:12 AM EST

Re: Dems Solidify Lead (none / 0)

...the Bush presidency is already over.


by b1oody8romance7 on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 01:04:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems Solidify Lead (none / 0)

That's for sure... although we still need to keep playing defense in case he tries to sneak one past.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 06:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"New Direction" Plan (none / 0)

Hopefully Dems numbers will rise more as the "New Direction" plan is presented more.  This is the Democrat's national agenda to raise minimum wage, bargain for prices to bring down medicare costs, half studen loan interest rates (I personally love this one), and replace $18 billion in oil subsidies with alternative energy subsidies.  Great plan, but I've only seen it on Kos and USA Today (I haven't went around looking for it, but I didn't notice it here or on Reuters).  As this becomes more well known, and voters hear more of the same "do-nothing" agenda from Republicans, I think the numbers only will get better.  Lets hope I'm right on this one.


John McCain
by John Nicosia on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 01:19:21 AM EST

The Fag and Flag Effect (none / 0)

This is what they get for obsessing over marriage equality.  Just wait until the flag burning amendment comes up.  Their numbers will sink even more.


by exLogCabin on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 02:59:23 AM EST

Re: The Fag and Flag Effect (none / 0)

I was under the impression most polls showed Americans in favor of that amendment.  Maybe I am wrong, (and I hope I am) but if I am not, then how would it hurt Bush?


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 06:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems Solidify Lead (none / 0)

And when will this generic ballot make it to a polling place near me?

Why is it bloggers are so quick to cheer these useless polls showing the Democratic tidalwave, but are equally quick to dismiss the latest Democratic loss at the ballot box.

Yes, Dems win on a generic ballot when people are polled nationally.  But Busby just lost and all people can say is "well, it's a red district, you know."  

Fact: Democrats have a worse approval rating than George W. Bush.  Until Democrats get serious about standing for something they will continue to lose at the polls.  Everyone talks about the chickenhawk Republicans (and they are) but let's not forget that the leading Democrats continue to refuse to oppose the war, continue to refuse to filibuster Bush's judicial nominees, and continue to refuse to propose an alternative agenda -- but worse, this gutless strategy is cheered on by your favorite liberal blogs.

Sorry, but the reason Democrats keep losing has everything to do with Democrats -- at this point, with Bush's numbers in the tank, it has nothing to do with the Republicans.


by PageUp on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 08:10:20 AM EST

Re: Dems Solidify Lead (none / 0)

but worse, this gutless strategy is cheered on by your favorite liberal blogs.

Speak for yourself. Maybe you should spend less time at those blogs. <g>

Most everything I read has been condemning the spinelessness you denounce, for a long time.


Karl in Drexel Hill, PA
by KB on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 11:20:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

no offense, but (none / 0)

Its clear you have been watching too many Rumsfeld press conferences!

Have I answered all your questions? I think so!


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 08:48:27 AM EST

Re: Dems Solidify Lead in Generic Congressional Ba (none / 0)


Karl in Drexel Hill, PA
by KB on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 11:20:54 AM EST

Re: Dems Solidify Lead in Generic (3.00 / 1)

I'll tell you what, after the Schumer comment on Lamont and Liebermann, I'm not sure what to think about anything.  The pessimist in me is hearing this small voice saying that the DCCC and DSCC are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  I have never in my life hoped I am more wrong, but its like the Beltway Dems are trying to throw the match.  

BTW, If Schumer does have the DSCC back Liebermann in the event of a Lemont victory, I will pledge donate as much as I can in both time and money to take him out the next time he is up for re-election.  Even the comment has me wanting to see him removed from his position of influence within the party.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Jun 15, 2006 at 06:48:38 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.