With the latest round of polling showing President Bush inching up a point or two, it comes as no surprise to see the headlines of the major outlets proclaiming a "Bush bounce." (These headlines of course ignore the CBS News survey showing the President's approval rating down two points in a month.) But perhaps the more interesting piece of information from these polls is that although George W. Bush seems to have arrested his precipitous decline in the polls, Congressional Republicans are actually polling worse today than in other recent surveys.
USA Today / Gallup Poll (Bush up 2 points from previous poll)If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district? (Registered Voters)
Democratic Candidate: 51 percent (51 percent in early June)
Republican Candidate: 39 percent (42 percent in early June)* * * * *
NBC News / Wall Street Journal (Bush up 1 point from previous poll) [.pdf]
What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections--a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
Democrat-controlled Congress: 49 percent (45 percent in April)
Republican-controlled Congress: 38 percent (39 percent in April)
Do the Democrats need to do more to make voters want to vote for them instead of just against the Republicans? Certainly. Does this effort need to begin sooner rather than in the last few weeks of the election? Of course. Do the Democrats need to work twice as hard over the next few months to ensure that they are not out-maneuvered by GOP operatives? Definitely.
But are Congressional Republicans slipping even while President Bush is remaining stagnant or perhaps inching up slightly? Apparently. And these numbers should worry Republicans much more than they do Democrats.
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