Nothing is certain in 2008:
A new Iowa Poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows that Edwards, the runner-up in the Iowa Democratic caucuses two years ago and a frequent visitor to the state since then, is the choice of 30 percent of Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the January 2008 caucuses.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York follows on Edwards' heels with 26 percent in the Iowa Poll.
Experts say it's the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House.
U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who used his victory in the 2004 caucuses as a springboard to the Democratic presidential nomination that year, is a distant third in the Iowa Poll with 12 percent.
Vilsack, despite getting good marks in previous polls for the job he's done in two terms as governor, receives relatively tepid support from his home state in the Register's new presidential poll, taken May 29 to June 1. Ten percent of likely caucus participants say that if the caucuses were held today, they would vote for him.
Five other potential Democratic presidential candidates listed in the poll bring up the rear with no more than 3 percent each.
The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Polls like this, and the earlier one on the Senate race in Connecticut, are just the tip of the iceberg. We saw it in Montana, and we saw it building in places like IL-06. From now on, Democratic primaries are not going to be determined only by the typical strategy of raising early money or early buzz from a finite pool of donors / media and using that edge to knock other candidates out. With a newly energized, people-powered progressive movement, increasingly the key to success in Democratic primaries is going to be be determined by which candidate or candidates can inspire that movement and release its potential energy and resources. Edwards is one of the few candidates right now who I see with the potential to do just that. If other candidates instead decide that this new movement does not matter and focus on building an organization designed to procure the largest share of what they perceive to be a fixed pool of Democratic resources, not only will they not win the nomination, they may not even be significant players in the nomination battle.
You are not logged in.
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
