Bush's Job Approval In Historical Perspective

Gallup has a terrible new poll for Bush: 31% approve, 65% disapprove. Since the main benefit of the Gallup poll are its trendlines stretching back more than sixty years, here are some facts about this poll in historical perspective: It is now reasonable to start talking about Bush in the 20's, and Bush breaking the all-time record for job disapproval.



Display:


Disapproval (none / 0)

Bush's disapproval was 65 in the most recent AP-Ipsos also.


Saxby Chambliss is a disgrace.
by ATL Dem on Mon May 08, 2006 at 04:47:55 PM EST

When we talk about an approval rating of 20 (none / 0)

Then we can really start breathing easy. Lets be realistic: An approval of 31% shows that there is almost one in three Americans who believe Bush is a good president.

that finding, is, in and of itself shocking. I am non partisan, and independent. Bush is undoubtedly the worst president ever - he is a liar, he is incompetent, he took us to war unjustly - he has spied on us, stolen from us, and is destroying our country.

So when you meet one in three people who say he's ok - thats huge. Thats mammoth. We still have alot of work left to do. Raise the stakes.


by turnerbroadcasting on Mon May 08, 2006 at 04:49:41 PM EST

No not at all (none / 0)

It is not necessarily the case that 31% of Americans actually approve of Bush's performance, all we know is that no more than 31% will claim they do.

Disapproval is a stronger measure. The fact is that a certain percentage of either Party will stick by a President of that same Party right to the bottom, that is they won't want to hurt the Party as a whole by jumping ship entirely, at least when it comes to talking to a pollster.

Polls are not limpid pictures reflecting the true beliefs of those being polled, they are filtered through a personal political reality. What is more important is not actual numbers but trendlines and Bush's are dismal. A little visit to the master and his Prof. Pollkatz: Bush Approval is more than instructive, it is devastating. This model is linear and yet Bush is shedding points at a steep rate. It should take more time to drop any politician from 70 to 60 than from 40 to 30, not only percentages but natural floors should start coming into play.

Bush's recent drop is not quite as steep as those following the artificial pops of the last two "President in Chief moments" the Fall of the Statue in April 2003 and the Capture of Saddam in Dec of that year. The collapse after April was essentially just a corrective, the collapse after December actually reset the base level to sub-50. The current steep descent from a "pop" to 43 is amazing.

I don't think Bush has tested his lows. There has to be a natural floor, a certain amount of nativist, brownshirt, fundamentalist, authoritarians that will stick with Bush come what may, it is actually an encouraging sign that combining the mouth breathers and die hard Republican loyalists still only buys Bush 31% approval.


by Bruce Webb on Mon May 08, 2006 at 09:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hell freakin' yeah (none / 0)

I honestly thought that mid-30s were as low as Bush could go. Poll htat start coming out that show approval below 30%, and maybe even disapproval about 70%...it's not so unthinkable now.

And to think that Rhode Island used to be the only state that had numbers resembling that. Wow. Americans are sure beginning to wake up.


by PsiFighter37 on Mon May 08, 2006 at 05:01:35 PM EST

I'd be interested in seeing data . . . (none / 0)

. . . on how long a period of time other Presidents suffered through their approval lows.  

While Bush I, Nixon, Carter and Truman may have hit approval depths lower than Bush II's in a single Gallup poll, the latter's approval ratings have been quite low for quite some time.  I believe it's been over a year since he saw even 50%, and it's been in the low 40's and 30's in Gallup polls all year (i.e. calendar 2006) - in fact, it's been bouncing back and forth between the low 40's and 30's in Gallup polls since last October.  

From looking at the polling information on Bush's approval numbers collected at the Polling Report ( http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm ) it appears that Bush's average approval rating in all of Gallup's reported polls since their 10/13 - 10/15/05 poll stands at about 39% . . . that's an average of about 39% approval over the course of over half-a-year (with not one Gallup poll showing an approval of more than 43% during that period).

So it's not just the low approval ratings Gallup is registering for Bush II, (and it's not just his high disapproval ratings, either) - it's the consistency of Bush II's low approval numbers over relatively long periods of time.  


by KJS on Mon May 08, 2006 at 05:32:15 PM EST

Re: Bush's Job Approval In Historical Perspective (none / 0)

Just look at the trend lines of this graph:

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/ 2006/05/bush-approval-at-34-in-gallup-33 -in.html

or indeed the historical comparisons:

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/ 2006/05/midterm-presidential-approval-an d-2006.html

I happen to think that it has simply become uncool to support the president. Regardless of whether you are left or right, the guy is just not credible and each month a few more people make the leap; they're not coming back: Worst. President. Ever.

What amazes me is the protection he gets from the press when the clear "story" is that the president is not up to the job.


by kundalini on Mon May 08, 2006 at 06:31:52 PM EST

the key question about 06, is how it affects 08 (none / 0)

The most important election, by far, in this country is the Presidential election. The president shapes the Supreme Court, Wars, and can veto everything he or she wants, even if the opposing party has a huge vote/seat margin in both the Senate and the House. With Bush in such anemic shape (which he will likely be in through 08), the important thing about the 2006 election is how it affects the 2008 one.

Chris had some excellent writings a while back on the 2006 Governors races and how key they are as a set-up to the ultra-consequential 2008 Presidential election. I read a recent article that very much convinced me of this fact -- of how key Governorships are. MYDDers, If you get a chance, take a look at this article:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2006/05/how_2006_will_affect_the_2008. html

This article will make you view the election of 06 a little differently (i.e., through the eyes of opposition GOP strategists, and where they are looking to poach in tenuous Democratic territory)

It's quite clear to this blogger that the Governors races of 06 are a much bigger deal to the future of politics in this country, than the U.S. House races of 06.


by JT on Mon May 08, 2006 at 07:32:59 PM EST

Re: Bush's Job Approval In Historical Perspective (none / 0)

Harry Truman scored the highest disapproval rating in Gallup's history -- 67% -- in January 1952. Truman also scored the lowest approval rating in Gallup's history, 23%, in the same poll.

http://poll.gallup.com/content/default.a spx?ci=10534&pg=2


by Nik on Mon May 08, 2006 at 09:33:07 PM EST

Not so fast, my friend (none / 0)

Bush's approval ratings have taken a hit because the racist wing of the Republican Party is mad at him about immigration.

Ironically, he is taking a beating for doing the right thing.

A right wing uprising is not necessarily a good thing, but stranger things have happened.


by wayward on Mon May 08, 2006 at 09:47:51 PM EST

Re: Bush's Job Approval In Historical Perspective (none / 0)

Given his awful approval ratings it's time to shut down Bush's entire legislative agenda. That means filibustering, or threatening to filibuster, in the Senate. Of course we only have 45 votes and there are always the Ben Nelsons and Kent Conrads who will prevent Reid&Co from mounting successful filibusters. Bush has been unpopular throughout his entire second term and yet has been able to pass nearly all of his agenda. Congressional Democrats allow crap like Tort and Bankruptcy "reform" to pass while crowing about how they prevented Bush and his allies from destroying Social Security and progressive taxation. I don't think preventing the most popular parts of the New Deal from being destroyed while allowing Bush to pass the rest of his agenda is anything to celebrate. Time to get the few wayward Democrats in the House and Senate to stop handing Republicans victory after victory. If the congressional Democrats can't stop Bush when he's in the low 30's then what good are they?


by DallasDem on Tue May 09, 2006 at 12:44:33 AM EST

Re: Bush's Job Approval In Historical Perspective (none / 0)

The REAL problem is the 30% is mostly Lap Dog Media hacks hoping for head table seats at the next "dePress Corp" Dinner Prez Stroke-a-thon.

Democrats ought to tighen up an not even pass gas . . . Bush has destroyed America long enough!


by JessWonderin on Tue May 09, 2006 at 05:25:52 PM EST


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