MyDD :: A candidate filing update and a rundown on the districts with unopposed GOP incumbents.

A candidate filing update and a rundown on the districts with unopposed GOP incumbents.

by BENAWU, Thu May 04, 2006 at 11:16:52 AM EST

From the diaries--Chris

The only downside to having filled almost all of the congressional districts with Democratic candidates is that the unfilled districts get filled very slowly ;). So for today's diary I thought I might include a run down of unopposed Republican districts as well as update you, the dear reader, (yes all 8 of you) with where candidate filing is at.

BTW Check the 50 State Page out. And comment there too. Please. Pretty please

Below the fold.............

Chris Bowers over at MyDD stole my thunder earlier this week with the extremely imaginatively titled story 419 - Bowers Story. It will no doubt come as a shock to know that we indeed have filled 419 House Races and yes this equals the 1994 GOP record.

The magic 419 number includes 417 candidates who have either filed or have active websites. It also includes 2 candidates who are listed as Running but Unconfirmed because of lack of same. They are:

NY 3 - Dave Denenberg - Who will be launching his campaign this Sunday - Denenberg is finally gonna declare!

MI 3 - Jim Rinck - Who won plaudits for his astute observation that he was stupider but louder than his incumbent GOP opponent! - A novel way to announce you are running

This of course leaves a miniscule 16 races where there is NOT a Democratic candidate running.

This 16 includes:

3 races where the filing deadline has passed and there won't be a Dem on the ballot.
AL 6 - Congressional District Map
MS 3 - Congressional District Map
TX 11 - Congressional District Map

2 races where the filing deadline has passed and there can be a Democrat run a write in campaign in the primary a la Wilson in OH 6.

CA 42 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate.

PA 9 - Congressional District Map. Paul Politis the 2004 nominee was in and then out 24 hours later. There is currently no rumoured candidate.

And 11 districts where filing hasn't yet closed but we don't have a confirmed candidate just some rumors and maybes.

AZ 6 - Congressional District Map. Kevin Jackson (the 2004 nominee) is not friggin running OK? I don't care that the DCCC and Act Blue list him. At this stage he has raised $0 and his website has gone. The AZ Dems don't list him as running either.

FL 7 - Congressional District Map. I have been questioning whether Chagnon is running. I sent 2 emails that bounced back as undeliverable. The Fighting Dems even quoted some text from one of my earlier diaries (thought I didn't notice DavidNYC?) Chagnon hasn't filed, doesn't have a website and has not been mentioned in the press. UNTIL THIS
So we shall see what happens here.

FL 12 - Congressional District Map. We have a rumoured candidate, James Davis, who needs help with the filing fee. - Kos Diary - I would like to see some press coverage or a website to move this one up the ranks.

FL 14 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate. Well actually there is - Robert Neeld. This brings me to a pet peeve. I know the DCCC have him listed as running and I know his website has one of those flash thingies that automatically change the dates but look at the friggin website NONE of it has been updated since April 2005 and even that says there is NO CANDIDATE YET!!! He is not running geddit? Even The Hill blog got suckered in.

LA 4 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate.

LA 5 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate.

LA 6 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate.

LA 7 - Congressional District Map. There has been the odd blog mention of 1996 nominee Hunter Lundy stepping up. A best a huge longshot as he has said nothing to confirm that he is even thinking about running

OK 1 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate.

VA 4 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate and it looks like the VA Dems have given up. - It's nice to see Raising Kaine covering more than Webb V Miller

VA 6 - Congressional District Map. There is currently no rumored candidate. Mind you if VA Dems had given up here I am sure Raising Kaine would have blogged it so watch this space.

So there it is. Don't fret about Louisiana there is heaps of time to fill those races.

My tip for 2006. 425 + Races filled!
AL 6, CA 42, MS 3, PA 9, TX 11, VA 4 definitely unfilled.

2 out of 3 in Florida get filled.
3 out of 4 in Louisiana get filled.
AZ 6 and OK 1 get filled.

426 or 427 depending on VA 6.

Tags: House, House Districts, House Elections 2006, 2006, CA-42, TX-11, MS-03, PA-09, AL-06, LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14, VA-04, VA-06, AZ-06, OK-01 (all tags)

Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment

*** Breaking News *** (3.00 / 0)

All ready to post the diary and whoppee I have found the magical 420th record breaking candidate. Who is he / she? Check the 50 State Page for more info.
A hint - he is running a write in.

Sheesh my prediction is wrong already!

by BENAWU on Thu May 04, 2006 at 09:23:25 AM EST

You rock (none / 0)

Welldone as always BENAWU.

by Chris Bowers on Thu May 04, 2006 at 10:25:57 AM EST

Re: A candidate filing update (none / 0)

Thanks for the update and hard work. I always enjoy it.

by John Mills on Thu May 04, 2006 at 11:02:27 AM EST

Re: A candidate filing update (none / 0)

If the Pennsylvania write-ins work, we will have achieved 100% in both the Northeast and the Midwest. And a maximum of two uncontested seats in the West. Only in the deep south have there been disappointments.

by admiralnaismith on Thu May 04, 2006 at 12:01:36 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Interesting to see all the Louisiana congressmen running unopposed.

by John McTexas on Thu May 04, 2006 at 12:02:49 PM EST

Re: A candidate filing update (none / 0)

Why is it that Democrats aren't screaming this from the mountaintops to all that will listen? This is huge news, and will help to show that this is a national movement against Republicans, as they are trying so hard to deny.

by John Nicosia on Thu May 04, 2006 at 12:22:58 PM EST

so I have a sincere question (none / 0)

I understand, completely agree with, and financially support the 50 state strategy, and your more specific goal here of leaving no race uncontested. And I also understand that this is a beginning, [a crucial, one to be sure, but still our rookie year] and that resources are finite. Fielding opponents for its own sake is a critically important strategy, yes. BUT I want to win some too! Specifically, I want to win my home district, OK-5, where the incumbent, Ernest Istook, is running for Governor.

I think one of the democratic contenders is a credible candidate. But whenever these diaries come up here, or at swing state project, or wherever, and I ask about it, this district is just written off as hopeless. And I end up feeling ... I don't know -- emotionally used and dismissed as naive because I want it to be taken seriously, not only as strategy, but as tactics as well.

So help educate me, please .... Do I have reason to hope? Or would it be better to go through the motions with the understanding that the value is in the doing?

by Klio on Thu May 04, 2006 at 12:31:05 PM EST

Re: so I have a sincere question (none / 0)

The answer is to look to the future as well as to the present.

There are three kinds of districts:

1. Democrat-held.

Districts we will win this year (called "blue" or "swing" or "hotly contested" by some).
Districts we will win in some future year (called "red" or "hopeless" or "safe Republican" by some).

I don't know enough about your Oklahoma district to tell whether it is a 2 or a 3. If everyone you know is writing it off, maybe it's a 3. If so, your mission if you choose to accept it is as follows:

1. Fight to win the election(true in all districts)

Get the message out as much as possible (true in all districts)
If winning the election outright looks impossible (don't know about an open Oklahoma district, but you can use as an example Dan Burton's Indiana District or Chris Cannon in Utah; a deep red district with a huge GOP advantage in voters, a popular incumbent, and some brave but unfunded, unknown sacrificial lamb in the Dem column), then "winning" is defined as reducing the Republican's margin to something below what it was last time. Because if you do that enough times, eventually, the district will change from solid red to leaning red to swing. And some day, the Democrats will win.

The success story to learn from is Newt Gingrich, may he rot in Hell. Newt started out in 1972 as an obscure professor with no experience, in what was then a solid blue district in a solid blue state with a popular long term Democratic incumbent. Other than having given its electoral votes to Nixon in 1968, Georgia had absolutely no connection with the Republican party. But Newt ran anyway, did the best he could, and got his ass kicked.

And he got up and ran again in 1974. And again, he got his ass kicked.

And he got up and ran again in 1976. And he lost again. But this time the margin was a lot smaller. And people in the district knew who he was.

And in 1978, the incumbent Democrat retired and the seat was open. And Newt was ready. And he ran again, and he won on the fourth try and became the first Republican elected to Congress from Georgia since Reconstruction. And eventually he became a big shot in his party and Speaker of the House.

Oklahoma hasn't had to wait 100 years. You had Democratic heavyweights like Glen English and Mike Synar and Dave McCurdy as recently as 1990. Will Oklahoma City send its "first Democrat since 1994" to Washington this year? Maybe, maybe not. If not, will your candidate get up and try again, and keep trying until s/he wins? If Istook won with 70% of the vote last time, can you keep the newbie down to 60%? 55%? Will increased non-majority Dem turnout in the 5th district be enough to add to higher turnout in other districts, so that you provide a margin of victory for other, statewide races like re-electing your Governor?

There are SO many ways a better-than-expected showing by your district's Democrat can be useful. Without even having to be elected.

by admiralnaismith on Thu May 04, 2006 at 01:56:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you (none / 0)

Thank you for taking the time to answer, and at such length.

OK-5 is probably one of your category 3s, but in part because of neglect. I don't know if it's been so redistricted that we're demographically out of the running.

The repub primary will be hotly contested; so will the dem primary. Hopefully, this will work in our favor both ways: the repubs will be broke and bitter and smeared (oh please oh please oh please); my dem, who has already won county-wide elections, will have even greater name recognition.

You're right, of course, in your sliding scale of victory. At least we've begun. We'll get somewhere.

Cheers,

by Klio on Thu May 04, 2006 at 03:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thank you (none / 0)

I concur with the above response to your question. The problem that you have is that this district voted solidly for bush 55+ I think, including every county. So best of luck and build that momentum and ground game.

by BENAWU on Thu May 04, 2006 at 04:03:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PA-09 (none / 0)

I haven't wanted to cry wolf after what happened with Politis in PA-09, but the wagons have been circled around a new write-in candidate, Tony Barr. He is a school teacher and part-time blogger. See here for more info.
Kudos to the dems of PA-09 who are refusing to give up in a very, very red district.

The real John McCain.

by Tim Hendricks on Thu May 04, 2006 at 02:11:02 PM EST

Re: PA-09 (none / 0)

It was Tony I was referring to in the first comment of this thread.

Does he have a website?

by BENAWU on Thu May 04, 2006 at 03:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA-09 (none / 0)

Oh yes, of course!

they plan on getting the site up late today...the address will be www.tonybarr2006.com

The real John McCain.

by Tim Hendricks on Thu May 04, 2006 at 04:07:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA-09 (none / 0)

thankee kindly

by BENAWU on Thu May 04, 2006 at 04:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A candidate filing update and a rundown on the (none / 0)

NY-03: Everyone keeps linking to that Newsday story which is now getting close to two weeks old. It's clear from that story that the "Sunday" in question was last Sunday, the 30th, not this Sunday, the 7th.

There hasn't been a single story on Denenberg since then. I'm a little nervous.

by DavidNYC on Thu May 04, 2006 at 11:19:53 PM EST

Re: A candidate filing update and a rundown on the (none / 0)

But let me add, great work as always, Benawu. :)

by DavidNYC on Thu May 04, 2006 at 11:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A candidate filing update and a rundown on the (none / 0)

Let me sooth your troubled nerves David :)

BENAWU SCHOOL OF MAGIC LINKS

All fixed all calmed

by BENAWU on Fri May 05, 2006 at 03:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A Proposal (none / 0)

Perhaps Bill Jefferson (D-LA02) needs a primary opponent. I suggest recruiting Virginia Boulet, who ran for New Orleans Mayor. She is bright, ethical, respected, and she is an advocate for universal healthcare. Visit her website, view her ads, and consider having a progressive run against Jefferson, who voted for the Patriot Act. Not only should we recruit candidates for open seats; we should recruit candidates for problematic Democrats, and Jefferson is proving to be one of these.

by illinois062006 on Fri May 05, 2006 at 01:57:42 AM EST

Re: A Proposal (none / 0)

If he lasts that long!

by BENAWU on Fri May 05, 2006 at 03:27:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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