Looks like that primary challenge is doing quite a number on Akaka (HI) too.

Kyl's one of those guys who just isn't that likeable no matter what he does.  When he's in an ad, he just doesn't light anyone's fire.

I think Pederson's strategy of being on TV is key.  Arizona is one of those states that really doesn't have grassroots.  Indeed, as kos and Armstrong wrote at the end of "Crashing the Gates", Arizona really doesn't have a functional Democratic Party.  That's why only TV works.  Also, in a state with hundreds of thousand of new residents, mailing lists and such cannot possibly do the job.

And the "new" nature of Arizona's residents is another problem for Kyl.  IN addition to new residents being more moderate than natives, 40% of voters in the state weren't even there in 1994 when Kyl first got elected.  So he does not really have the power of incumbency that, say, a DeWine has.

I guess Kyl is out of touch with Arizona values.

He remains popular (62-35 in SUSA) and will do his best to drag Kyl across the finish line.  After all, if Kyl goes down, McCain's primary opponents in 2008 will hammer him with it.  

Of course, I didn't think Pederson had a real chance, and its clear that he does, so what do I know?  

the west is the best

This is fascinating (if Kyl's disapproval ratings are a result of Pederson's commercials).  As I recall, the Pederson commercials are warm, fuzzy introductions of himself and not issue-related at all.  They are very important for inoculating him against future negative attacks from Kyl.  But I've never seen such commercials cause someone else's disapproval ratings to soar!  If there is a direct causal link here, that suggests to me that many voters are willing to turn to the first positive, viable alternative that they can find; but if there isn't one, then they would resign themselves to accepting what they have.  Pederson deserves our thanks for being willing to take this race on.

Kyl's sister was my High School English teacher. She was the complete opposite of him: warm, funny, inspiring and very progressive. She told us their divergent politics made for interesting Thanksgivings. She was the best teacher I ever had.

I just wanted to say that. I miss Ms. Kyl.

He's been the one I most wanted to see go down ever since Santorum was clearly toast.  Glad to see this.  Anyone with a net negative approval rating should NOT be able to win reelection.