Democracy Corps has new polls out on three "second tier" House races this fall. In the straight-up trial heats that do not include anything except candidate names and titles, Republicans lead all three. However, all three are also competitive. With leaners, NJ-07 is at 54-35, PA-07 is at 51-41, and OH-01 is at 52-43. Without leaners, NJ-07 is at 49-30, PA-07 is at 48-37, and OH-01 is at 49-40.
More good news comes form voter enthusiasm numbers:
In this mid-term election, who turns out to vote will obviously make the difference between Republican and Democratic control of Congress. In each of the three races surveyed by Democracy Corps, the evidence indicates that Republicans are demoralized. The percentage that strongly disapproves of Bush is more than twice the size the percentage who strongly approve of him. And on our 1 to 10 scale on interest in the election, the number of those supporting the Republican who say their interest in the election is a ten lags behind the number of Democratic supporters who indicate that level of serious interest.
In PA-07, 70% of those supporting the Democratic candidate,
Joe Sestak say they are extremely enthusiastic, while only 52% of Weldon (the loony Republican incumbent) supporters say they are very enthusiastic. In NJ-07, supporters of Democrat
Linda Stender lead 55-43 in high enthusiasm levels, and in OH-01 supporters of Democrat Steve
John Cranley lead 58-49.
None of these elections would currently be considered toss-ups or lean-Democratic, but clearly they are competitive. For races of this tier to be competitive five and a half months before the election, one can certainly see the making of a major national landslide.
As Political Wire noted yesterday,
The Cook Political Report currently lists fifty-five Republican held seats as potentially competitive, compared with only twenty seats held by Democrats. With Republicans needing to spend an unusually high amount of resources to try and hold on to seats such as PA-07, NJ-07, and OH-01, finding the fifteen seats needed for control of the House is certainly seems a lot easier than it did just a few months ago.
