It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History

We might have just pushed Joe Lieberman out of the Democratic Party and put a whole lot of DC Democrats in awkward positions.  If Joe becomes an independent, we will also have changed the netroots narrative and destroyed the Sista Souljah path to power so common in the Democratic Party since 1992.

First, I think Lieberman is going to jump out of the Democratic Party (Colin McEnroe thinks it's more likely now as well).  Joe's weak among liberals and he doesn't have the numbers to win in the primary.  If you look at the town delegates that voted for Lieberman, you'll see they were in the big urban centers where city machines are strongest.  There was a credentials fight where the mayor of Hartford refused to seat Lamont-friendly delegates (though the conflict was related to the gubernatorial race and the Lamont piece was incidental). In the areas with no patronage - the small towns - Ned cleaned up.  This is very very bad for Lieberman, since it means that the convention dramatically overstated his strength.  

Lieberman is also losing in other, significant ways - he doesn't really have labor support, a prime mover of votes.  Just how is he going to get voters to the polls in the primary?  Who are these Lieberman supporters?  The die-hard Joementum lovers?  There are a few, but not a lot in the Democratic Party.  In early April, I wrote that the Convention was Lieberman's test of strength.

The likeliest path forward for him is to test his strength at the convention, and based on that decide whether to run as a D or an I.  From his perspective, he probably has a better chance in the general against Lamont than he does in the primary, so dropping out and running as an independent might be the most rational move, though it would be costly.  So watch the convention carefully.

If Lieberman drops out of the primary to run as an independent, it's going to be very strange for a lot of stakeholders.  First of all, the DSCC and Senate Democrats will be thrust into some very awkward positions.  Does Lieberman keep his committee assignments?  Does the DSCC come in on Ned Lamont's behalf?  These are questions they should be considering.

This is basically still the dynamic.  There's one other point here, a psychological one.  Lieberman is a Reagan-era Democrat, and he worships at the altar of the 'swing voter'.  He thinks he's perfectly positioned to appeal to that voter, and so with the Republicans locked up he can win as an independent since the independent swing voters are going to come his way.  Of course, his support among independents is crashing, but that will just confuse him, not change his mind.

My guess is that the national party committees are nervously watching Connecticut now.  Howard Dean is on the record saying that the DNC will support the eventual nominee.  Lieberman committed to running as a Democrat to Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid, but he won't go on the record about it.  I have no doubt Lieberman will break this pledge, but that doesn't mean his party support will dry up.  Schumer thinks that the DSCC's job is to support incumbents, and it's not clear that he means Democratic incumbents.

My guess is that the DSCC sticks with Lieberman, even if Lieberman jumps to become an independent.  That's just a guess.  They never thought they'd have to be involved here, and may be stuck in a bind.  They also are probably underestimating the amount of blowback from backing an independent Lieberman against a Democratic Lamont, since they don't really believe that we're real.  The DNC will not go with Lieberman if he jumps.  It may stay neutral, or it may come in for Lamont.  This is going to set up an interesting fight should Lieberman look at the numbers and decide that he's better off in a general than a primary.

Regardless, Ned Lamont is now a real candidate, and a legitimate challenger to Lieberman.  There has always been wide expectations that Lieberman would simply crush Lamont.  When Lieberman had the whole Connecticut establishment (including labor unions heads) go to his birthday party and talk about how great he is, one serious DC insider said to me "Matt, Lieberman's a serious guy and a great politician.  You don't know what you're up against.  And watch, there's a lot more coming."  Well, I have to say that this convention showed, once again, that the insiders have bad political judgment.  Still, he's right about one thing.  Lieberman has $5 million that he can spend on sliming Lamont, though he probably spent 300k-500k on the convention fight, with all the glossy mailers and food and drink at the expo center.  Lamont needs money, and I hope this convention has proved that his campaign will spend it well.

This is the candidate and the fight we've always dreamed of.  Let's get Ned's back:

http://actblue.com/page/netrootscandidat es?refcode=MyDD



Display:


Where is DFA on this? (none / 0)

Have they taken a position yet?

I gather that Moveon.org was going to do a member poll to determine whom to support. When is that poll expected to take place?


by NuevoLiberal on Sat May 20, 2006 at 11:17:42 AM EST

Re: Where is DFA on this? (none / 0)

Jim Dean sat with Ned Lamont at the JJB dinner in Connecticut.  Most of the DFA groups within Connecticut have already endorsed Ned.  It is my understanding that DFA will do a poll of people from Connecticut within a week or so.

MoveOn has sent out an email that they will be polling Connecticut members near the end of the week.

Hopefully, the results from the convention will lead to a great response by Ned supporters.

(Full Disclosure:  I work for Ned.)


by aldon on Sat May 20, 2006 at 12:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MoveOn Poll... (none / 0)

They will conduct a 24hr poll beginning next Thursday, the 25th. I believe the bar is at 66.67%, meaning Ned will gain this valuable endorsement in less than a week.


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Sat May 20, 2006 at 05:58:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (3.00 / 1)

You've got it backwards.  We didn't push Joe out; he walked out on us.  A long time ago.  When Bush and his cadre began to exploit the support they stumbled into through this country's post-9/11 fears by, among other things, initiating a vanity war on false pretenses, dismantling the intelligence vetting process, shaving away our constitutional rights and appointing an army of conservative judges, we needed a prominent Democrat with just the tiniest bit of courage and vision to stand up and question what the Administration was doing.  Lieberman could have been that Democrat.  Instead, he shuffled over to the bath tub started to talk us into drinking the Administration's Kool-Aid.  He's a closet Republican.  What's surprising to me is that, according to your chart, his disapproval rating only recently climbed above 50%.    


by dws on Sat May 20, 2006 at 11:39:29 AM EST

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

Lieberman will lose much of his machine support as an independent; a lot of people will feel released from commitments they made to him on the basis of his being an incumbent Democrat. For instance, New Haven mayor and gubernatorial candidate John de Stefano told Lieberman publicly that he would not support him as an independent: He will support the winner of the democratic primary.


Economic -5.00 Social -5.49 http://politicalcompass.org/
by Swordsmith on Sat May 20, 2006 at 12:02:14 PM EST

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (3.00 / 0)

I actually hope that Joementum defects and decides to contest the general as an independent. This will then in broad daylight show the DSCC and the DC Dem establishement for what they really are.


by ab initio on Sat May 20, 2006 at 12:29:05 PM EST

I agree - it strips the paint to show (none / 0)

the "defect in the product" to use an analogy

If he does defect it can only be a win situation for the netroots and the Democratic Party as a whole as it will spark conversation/dialogue which this country desperately needs about ALL issues.

Good job to all the Lamont delegates in Conn.!


by merbex on Sat May 20, 2006 at 01:46:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

If he runs as an independent we need to be careful. We don't want to lose the seat. If Reid were to kick Lieberman off committee leadership the Republican would offer him leadership in exchange for caususing as a Republican. Besides, for the rest of his term he's still caucusing with the Democrats which makes him deserving of his committee seats (just like Sanders will once he's there).

I have no idea what the DSCC should do. I'd just as soon have them stay out of it as anything else. If they fund Lieberman it would be infuriating. If the fund Lamont it would be surreal and could push Lieberman to caucus with the GOP.

Its obviously huge and exciting that Lamont did so well but Senate leadership needs to tread very lightly if Lieberman bails.


by js noble on Sat May 20, 2006 at 02:17:31 PM EST

These are good questions (none / 0)

You're right that if Joementum remains in the Democratic caucus (although as an independent) he should retain his committee seats (I think).

However, that doesn't mean that the DSCC needs to keep funding him. They should be aware that supporting an independent Joe Lieberman over the Conneticut Democratic Party's nominee will not only look bad, but it could cause their fundraising to dry up.

Look for dem activists who are currently giving money to the DSCC to start giving directly to preferred Senate candidates if the DSCC decides to send money to Joe Leiberman in the general election.


Check out Future Roots, for rootsrockreggaegrass from the heart of Oregon's beautiful Willamatte Valley!
by robin oz on Sat May 20, 2006 at 04:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

This should not be read as supporting Lieberman, who is an idiot, but if he runs as an independent, and if he wins, then expect Republicans and the beltway based media, to start reporting how the Dems, bloggers, and liberals are "out of touch." If Lieberman runs as an independent he will blast bloggers and liberals on his way out the door and the beltway media will pick up on this theme.

All of this is not to say that Lamont shouldn't be backed or that he shouldn't run. It is to say that the people backing Lamont better start thinking about how they will react if Lieberman takes that road.

The problem is that the media is not prepared for a Democratic Party that acts like an opposition party. What they want is a Democratic party that makes compromises with Republicans. They want this because (a). it fits their theme about the two parties which is that Republicans are tough and Democrats are not, and (b). they realize that if both parties become like the Republicans, then nothing will get done. Hence, the media is always pressuring Dems to compromise and rewarding them when they are like Lieberman.

The response to most of these attacks is to say very clearly that we want power and intend to get power to bring about differnent policies. Hence, we have no interest in helping Republicans make their policies look better by compromising with them. Dems like Lieberman, though, are unwilling to take that stand and the media supports them in their positions.

All of this is not to say "be careful what you wish for", but is to say that it is time to start thinking about what to do is Lieberman jumps the Dems.

PS>I don't think that he will because I think that Reid is smart enough to get that commitment from Joe as part of his supporting Joe.


by mrgavel on Sat May 20, 2006 at 02:52:36 PM EST

"Out of Touch" is.. (3.00 / 2)

a Democrat who still supports this idiotic war, who in fact helped make the false connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq, who voted for the Bush/Cheney Energy Bill, who stood with Delay on the wrong side of the Schiavo madness, who failed women by not fighting to block Alito, who was one of only six Democrats to vote to confirm AG Alberto "Torture is Legal" Gonzales, who voted for CAFTA, after NAFTA, who calls Sean Hannity a wonderful American, but criticizes Jimmy Carter for sitting next to Michael Moore.

What I'm saying is don't give a fucking inch.


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Sat May 20, 2006 at 06:02:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Out of Touch" is.. (none / 0)

But the issue is not what happens to Lieberman, the issue is how will we spin it to the media so it doesn't hurt progressive candidates in future elections.


by mrgavel on Sat May 20, 2006 at 10:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What happens to...? (none / 0)

There had been talk that since Lamont was not going to get enough delegates at the convention, he was going to have to get on the ballot through signatures, and that it was a good thing because the organization necessary and the act of signing would bring more people for Lamont.  So, now that he is already on the ballot, what happens to Lamont's grassroots team?  Where does the energy that was going to go into petitioning go?


The middle is a ghost.
by KazHooker on Sat May 20, 2006 at 02:52:42 PM EST

Re: What happens to...? (none / 0)

I would bet they are out getting petitions signed. It is always a good idea to do that as well...the political equivalent of "running up the score". It makes for good press.


by ElitistJohn on Sat May 20, 2006 at 03:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What happens to...? (3.00 / 1)

The grassroots team will probably spend the rest of the weekend, and maybe into Monday and Tuesday, talking about what a great experience the convention was.  They will gather at the Playwright for a book signing with Markos and Jerome.  Ned will be there to introduce them.
See the event listing on My Left Nutmeg

They will talk about being relieved that the pressure is off them on petitioning, and now they can simply do door to door canvasing without all the extra hoops that petitioning requires.

One of the great things about this, is that petitions must be circulated by registered Democrats residing on Connecticut, but door to door canvasing can be done by everyone.  They will be excited about their friends coming in from neighboring states to join them as they go door to door for Ned.

Then, there will be the emails.  The DFA poll and the MoveOn poll.  They will be excited.  They will pass around the emails to all their friends.

Memorial Day Weekend will come around.  They will take a little time off to hang out with friends and relatives.  When they get into discussions about what new and exciting things are going on, they will be telling friends that haven't been involved with politics about the exciting Ned Lamont campaign, and they will bring new people into the political process.

It will inspire some to have house parties to get more people together to talk about Ned Lamont and how he can provide the sort of vision and leadership that has been lacking from our current junior Senator.

Will it happen as beautifully as I've described above?  I sure hope so.  It does sound a little too good to be true, and there will probably be a few bumps.  However, Friday night was so much more than any of us expected it could be.


by aldon on Sat May 20, 2006 at 08:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

Does anyone have a breakdown of Convention votes?  I would like to see how delegates from individual towns voted.  


by Winston Smith on Sat May 20, 2006 at 05:08:16 PM EST

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

Unofficial tally from CTLocalPolitics, here:

http://connecticutlocalpolitics.blogspot .com/2006/05/lieberman-nominated-lamont- gets-over.html#comments

Note: Lamont did incredibly well within CT's small towns. Lieberman began to hold his patronage centers, which are CT's one-party cities. Lieberman seems to be positioning himself to run to Lamont's left. Which is hilarious. He actually sent out a pre-convention mailer trying to depict Lamont as a closeted Republican. (and not him!)


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Sat May 20, 2006 at 06:09:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

Is there a town-by-town break down?  As someone who worked the trenches in local Democratic races in my youth, I am interested in seeing how certain towns went.  


by Winston Smith on Sun May 21, 2006 at 03:49:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

That's.. trenches in central Connecticut.


by Winston Smith on Sun May 21, 2006 at 03:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Fun to Be on the Right Side of History (none / 0)

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by riptid on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 06:00:52 AM EST


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