Bush's Disapproval In Gallup Within MoE of All-Time Record

Gallup shows Bush at 34 / 63, for an overall net of -29. A net disapproval of -29 puts him only 2 points behind the all-time worst of Bush Sr. and Carter, who both cratered at -31. However, I want to emphasize the importance of a 63% disapproval number, because it is the third highest rating for a President in the long history of the Gallup poll. Both Carter and Bush Sr. never went past 60%. Only Truman, at 65%, and Nixon, at 66%, ever surpassed a 63% disapproval rating according to Gallup.

However, a difference of only 3% in a telephone survey of around 1000 people is not statistically significant. While his net approval keeps him in the Carter -- Bush I range, right now no President, at any point in his presidency, has had a greater percentage of the nation disapproving of the job he is doing. Not even Nixon during the height of the Watergate scandal. In fact, on July 15th, 1974, Gallup also put Nixon at 63% disapproval.

Some other questions in the poll are also interesting. Democrats lead the generic ballot 54-39. The democratic Party has a favorability rating of 48-45, while the Republican Party has a favorability rating of 36-58, a twenty-five point net edge for Democrats. Further, 50% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they are "more enthusiastic" to vote than usual, compared to 37% who indicate they are "less enthusiastic." That compares quite well to a poor 38-46 enthusiastic / not enthusiastic rating among Democrats and Democratic leaners just before the 2002 elections, and also to a poor 38-46 rating among Republicans and Republican leaners right now. That indicates that Democrats may be more energized to vote than Republicans, but as many people have pointed out the only poll that counts are actual elections. Thus, we will have to wait until June 6th to know for certain if we are indeed more energized, since that is the first general election of 2006.



Display:


inconsistency? (none / 0)

You said both

Only Truman, at 65%, and Nixon, at 66%, ever surpassed a 63% disapproval rating according to Gallup.

and

no President, at any point in his presidency, has had a greater percentage of the nation disapproving of the job he is doing

You might want to clarify exactly what you meant.


by Winger on Tue May 02, 2006 at 06:44:21 PM EST

Re: inconsistency? (none / 0)

The margin of error. Truman and Nixon had higher readings but, as I noted in the post, because fo the margin of error, the difference between 63, 65, and 66 is not staistically significant.
by Chris Bowers on Tue May 02, 2006 at 10:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: inconsistency? (none / 0)

What's the number for % of whom strongly disapprove?  I couldn't find it.  Btw, I think (as do many other commentators) that the strongly disapproval number is key because they are considered immoveable no matter what Bush, Iraq, or the economy does.  If it gets over 50% that would be amazing and almost impossible for Republicans to hang on to Congress.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue May 02, 2006 at 10:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bush's Disapproval In Gallup Within MoE of All (none / 0)

I find the absence of undecideds/no answer especially striking.


by jayackroyd on Wed May 03, 2006 at 01:37:19 AM EST

Re: Bush's Disapproval In Gallup Within MoE of All (none / 0)

it is: this is the most significant finding of all. this shows definitively that Americans want to be led into action

and it also shows how pathetic it is to get excited about polls. Bush is the most powerful man in america. probably the man we'd most like to stop, and he's being aided by the complicity of the media -

today in fact is an interesting day - remember how bush kept saying there's this big debate about global warming?

well today the final nail in the coffin of that argument was struck. two major papers have declared that the idea that there was any debate at all was specious. ie. they are saying that global warming is very, very real.

there never was any debate in the scientific community.

where is the reporting on that?

maybe they were busy with polls that support their advertising revenue...


by turnerbroadcasting on Wed May 03, 2006 at 07:28:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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