419

by Chris Bowers, Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:06:57 PM EST

This is what democracy, and a national party, looks like.

Last week, Georgia Democrats came through and managed to field at least one candidate to run in all thirteen congressional districts. The weekend after the fifty-state canvass, we are now on the precipice of breaking the record Republicans set in 1994 when they fielded challengers in 419 congressional districts. Now, according to the fifty-state page maintained by Barry Welsh, Democrats have also fielded candidates in 419 districts.

What's left to fill? Now much:
  • Unopposed, deadline passed, no write-in campaign underway: AL-06, CA-42, MS-03, PA-09, TX-11, VA-04, VA-06

  • Florida, 5/12: FL-07, FL-12, FL14

  • Oklahoma, 6/7: OK-01

  • Arizona, 6/14: AZ-06

  • Louisiana, 8/11: LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07
That's it. We still have some rather immediate work to do in Florida, and some longer-term work to do in Louisiana, but we have basically completed this remarkable process.

This is Howard Dean's victory. From 2003 forward, the idea that Democrats needed to challenge Republicans everywhere, even if it meant fewer resources for "swing" states / seats / districts, was a direct contrast to the longstanding selective targeting strategy of the Democratic leadership. Now, the fifty-state strategy is conventional wisdom, and activists around the country have brought the idea to fruition. We are a national party again. The idea is not just a blog entry, or an online consensus anymore. It has been manifested in the real world, and I for one hope there is no going back.




Tags: fifty-state strategy, House 2006 (all tags)

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Permalink :: 38 Comments :: Post a Comment


CA-42 (3.00 / 1)

I live here and hate Rep. Miller with a passion.  Hopefully someone will start a write-in campaign.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:10:46 PM EST

Re: 419 (3.00 / 1)

As a Wes Clark supporter in 2003 and 2004 I think Howard Dean is doing a great job as DNC chair.  


by howardpark on Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:17:35 PM EST

Re: 419 (3.00 / 6)

419: not just a Nigerian Scam anymore.

Dean couldn't do it without us, and I don't think we could have done it without Dean. The emergence of an activated grassroots conjoined with an advocate for that grassroots at the highest level of the party is a unique and fortuitous opportunity that we can't afford to miss.

If we don't step up to the plate and deliver results, we may not again witness in our lifetimes such an opportunity to reclaim the Democratic party for the working people of this nation... and put the brakes on oligarchic control of our government.


by Malacandra on Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:29:27 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Currently I have 24 Democrats and 8 Republicans as unopposed by a member of the other party.

The Dems: Cramer, Artur Davis, George Miller, Costa, Becerra, Solis, Watson, Waters, Millender-McDonald, John Lewis, Costello, Andrews, Payne, Butterfield, Tim Ryan, Blumenauer, Brady, Doyle, Al Green, Reyes, Gonzalez, Doggett, Cuellar, Bobby Scott. But the Republicans are running a write-in campaign against Blumenauer, so he may fall off the list.

The GOPers: Bachus, Gary Miller, Pickering, Shuster, Dent, Conaway, Forbes, Goodlatte. But a write-in campaign is underway against Dent, so like Blumenauer, he may fall off the list.

Most of these unopposed Congresspeople are in ultra-safe seats. Most of the Democrats, for example, are urban minorities, while most of the Republicans are in rural or suburban conservative strongholds. But a few of these guys could have been vulnerable in the right environment: Costa, Costello, and Dent come to mind. And Cramer's northern Alabama district gave Bush like 58% of the vote! You'd think Repubs would want SOME sort of opposition to keep him busy.


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:43:45 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

"But the Republicans are running a write-in campaign against Blumenauer, so he may fall off the list."

Are you kidding?  I used to live in Portland and the guy is loved.  Plus, there are no Repubs in his district that I am aware of.


by John Mills on Mon May 01, 2006 at 05:59:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

id guess he meant fall of the list of unopposed, not lose...


by falseintellect on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

I know but that is one of the craziest thing I have ever heard.  The few Repubs in Portland live on the west side of town which is represented by David Wu, not Blumenauer.  Hey, if the Repubs want to waste their time writing in against Earl Blumenauer be my guest.


by John Mills on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:39:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Nobody actually said Blumenauer was vulnerable, I was just saying that if the write-in campaign is successful he will have opposition (however weak) in the fall, taking him off the unopposed list.


My ActBlue page
by Ament Stone of California on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:49:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

I am not being clear.  I know Blumenauer is safe but I just think it is amazing the Rs are even wasting their time on this but maybe they have nothing else to do in Portland.


by John Mills on Mon May 01, 2006 at 08:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Bud Cramer is a lot like Ben Nelson; he's a conservative enough guy for a super conservative district that the voters will ignore the heinous "D" next to his name and enjoy the benefits of having an eight term congressman who sits on the Appropriations Committee.


by TommyBoy on Mon May 01, 2006 at 11:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

we can still get candidates on the ballot in va 4 and va 6.


by BENAWU on Tue May 02, 2006 at 08:10:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

VA-04 is toast (none / 0)

It looks like that one wont be filled. Per district Dem insiders; there's no one on the horizon, and the nominating convention has now been cancelled. Not sure what's going on in VA-06.


by mike20169 on Tue May 02, 2006 at 09:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Very exciting news.  Thanks Chris for constantly exhorting us on the need to challenge everywhere.  We might not get to 435 but we are going to be very close.


by John Mills on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:00:50 PM EST

Georgia is a great example (none / 0)

Georgia is a great example of how the strategy game "command and conquer" holds some parallel to political strategy.

In command and conquer, you can lay your forces out in a wide perimeter and go after the enemy on all fronts, but if you do, you might just leave your home base undefended.

Now, the GOP gambles every year that they will shoot a round or two out into the woods and the democrats will go don their red badge of courage and meet them on their own ground.  Where they promptly try to cut you to ribbons.

But guess what. The game has built in logic to run an attack on your base, go deep into your own territory. And blow you away.

Now, that is exactly what the party is doing.

Tim Cairl is the mastermind of this maneuver down here in Georgia.

So for Tim Cairl, Kudos. Now, get back to work, nobody's won anything. Play to win. Then we'll really see some money come into the game.


by turnerbroadcasting on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:04:40 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

oh in case I forgot to mention: if you make the mistake of not defending your base, you can be completely blown away : the base camp is where you get your ammo, and resources.  you count on those resources to win, and if you have to stay there defending them, you will lose territory no matter what.


by turnerbroadcasting on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:16:53 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Howard Dean has been a godsend for the Democrats. Every district can be in play if we make enough of an effort...

Visit my blog

http://liberaljournal.blogspot.com


by nm on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:37:57 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

a-men. the guy has positions you disagree with, but by and large the fellow speaks a whole, whole lot of common sense.

if I might - let me recap dean for those of you who can see clearly.

* the iraq war is a mistake.


  • homeland security alerts show up at politically convenient times
  • george bush is incompetent
  • its crazy that 7 companies control 86% of all that americans see and hear
  • blogs are cool

oh yeah and the sound you make when you go from an absolute zero to defining the direction of the American Democratic party ....

YEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


by turnerbroadcasting on Mon May 01, 2006 at 08:53:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Chris, do you know who I can get in touch with to help get people to write-in Dertinger's name in PA-15 so he gets on the ballot in the general?


by bobdoleisevil on Mon May 01, 2006 at 06:40:39 PM EST

Re: 419 (3.00 / 1)

His website: http://www.votecharles.org/


by DavidNYC on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:56:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Barring... (none / 0)

election fraud, we have a chance to take one or both houses in November. However, we all know what is at stake for the administration: criminal actions, legacy, and the GOP pinned into a POW camp for years to come. Lots of motivations to use any and every election tactic come November. I just hope the Democratic Party is aware and putting together a MASSIVE anti-criminal organization to counter the coming election fraud.

Regardless, we have every right to be proud of our efforts.


by Citizen80203 on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:04:08 PM EST

Buyers market (none / 0)

In the current political environment, being a Democrat is much more desirable than in the past three cycles. That sure can't hurt recruitment.

This is great news. The more places we challenge, the more resources they have to spend. Strategic losses often turn other battles into victories.


Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:19:40 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

The two Virginia seats (VA-4 and VA-6) are not completely off the map.  The Virginia deadline was for filing petitions.  Parties may also nominate by way of a district convention.  The deadline is May OR June (not real clear, at least to me).

The newspapers and the state Democratic Party are rather vague.  But there is a chance (also true for Virginia Republicans, BTW).


by David Kowalski on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:43:18 PM EST

NY-03 (none / 0)

It's not clear to me that David Denenberg has actually declared in NY-03 yet. Has he?


by DavidNYC on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:57:52 PM EST

Re: NY-03 (none / 0)

Not yet but he will soon.

Newsday article


by BENAWU on Tue May 02, 2006 at 08:14:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-03 (none / 0)

Well, the date announced in that Newsweek story has come and gone, as far as I can tell. I'm a little worried.


by DavidNYC on Tue May 02, 2006 at 12:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (3.00 / 2)

This may sound like heresy, but Dean doesn't deserve all the credit you are giving him.  The DCCC and Rahm Emmanuel have been working very hard to find competitive candidates around the country.  Will the DCCC support every candidate financially?  No, they can't, but they have  found candidates who can win the seats necessary to take back the House.  Do I agree with all their decisions?  No. But give credit where credit is due - the DCCC has performed really well.


by budwina on Mon May 01, 2006 at 09:24:15 PM EST

Re: 419 (3.00 / 1)

The strategy is one formulated by Howard Dean, and the candidates who have filed in races cite Dean's strategy.  One example is Christine Cegelis, who Emanuel laboured to undermine.  She cited Dean, and she stated that every district must be challenged with or without DCCC support.  Many others share her sentiment, thus revealing how Emanuel has nothing to do with the Fifty State Strategy that has yielded so many Democratic challengers.

Thank you Howard Dean.


by illinois062006 on Mon May 01, 2006 at 11:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (3.00 / 1)

Chris,

How can you spin this as Dean's victory? Isn't this a victory for Rahm Emanuel given that he is the one recruiting Congressional candidates?


by DemocraticBass on Mon May 01, 2006 at 09:33:50 PM EST

Re: 419 (3.00 / 1)

Absolutely not, for he has only recruited certain candidates with certain characteristics to compete in certain districts.  The motivation to compete in every district is Dean's strategy, and Emanuel and the DCCC latched onto it months after it was bandied about and developed on the blogs.  


by illinois062006 on Mon May 01, 2006 at 11:55:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

And besides, Emanuel's organization does not provide a biography of every candidate.  I fail to see how this egregious practice dovetails with the Fifty State Strategy as Howard Dean formulated it.


by illinois062006 on Tue May 02, 2006 at 12:00:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Dude, Howard Dean is not God.  Eric Clapton, maybe, but not Governor Dean.


by nascardem on Tue May 02, 2006 at 08:35:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (3.00 / 2)

Yes and no.

It is largely through Dean's vision (one shared by a lot of other Democrats, but it certainly is his vision and his main theme) that we have 419 candidates.

I suspect that Rahm could care less how many candidates we have as long as we have the maximum number of competitive races.

Give Dean the credit for 419 races and counting. The 50-state strategy is his baby and he's done very well.

Rahm does, however, deserve at least some credit for the fact that we have about 70 races that are at least somewhat in play (many of them super long shots-I'm including races like TX-32 where it would take a miracle, but races that are somewhat in play nonetheless).

Give unto Dean what is Dean's, and give unto Rahm what is Rahm's.


by brownsox on Tue May 02, 2006 at 12:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

While the 50 state strategy is Dean's concept (and a very good one!), both Dean and Emanuel deserve credit for the success.  What has happened is that a hybrid result is emerging from the competing strategies of both men.

Let me use a bio-lab test analogy.  Many times when you get a lab test done at the doctor, the test may be strong in sensitivity but therefore sacrifices specificity (causing false positives); or it may be strong in specificity but sacrificing sensitivity (causing false negatives).  One type of test, however, cannot be both high in specificity and sensitivity.  The way to reduce the false positives and the false negatives and increase the reliability of the results is to use BOTH types of tests.

Dean's approach has put almost all districts in play just by fielding a candidate and grassroots support.  That doesn't mean they're all winnable, but you can't win if you don't play either.

Emanuel has only focused on races which appear competitive if not winnable to marshall resources effectively.  As a result, his approach has demonstrated numerically and tactically that the House can be won back, a morale builder in a real time of despair.  (A year ago many thought that was a farfetched idea!)

Emmanuel's approach has made the likelihood of Democratic success look very real and tangible, thus encouraging all Dems to compete.  But Dean's approach has left fertile ground for efforts like Emmanuel's to step into districts as they become competitive.  Both approaches at the same time increase the effectiveness of each other.  And the double-whammy is unnerving the Repubs.

BOTH MEN WILL DESERVE CREDIT IF AND WHEN WE SUCCEED IN NOVEMBER!


by Phonatic on Tue May 02, 2006 at 02:56:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 419 (none / 0)

Hallelujah!  I never thought we could reach 419 this year.

But, we still have a long way to go.  Many of the state parties are being run as hobby shops.  


Blogging for Alabama at LeftInAlabama
by Mooncat on Mon May 01, 2006 at 11:55:01 PM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

This is extremely encouraging.

While the House is quite an uphill climb due to gerrymandering (Seattle P-I cartoonist David Horsey had a brilliant cartoon on that subject), I feel we will make solid gains.

Victory '06!


by PROUD DEM on Tue May 02, 2006 at 01:28:53 AM EST

Re: 419 (none / 0)

It isn't Howard Dean's victory.

It is everybody's victory.


by v2aggie2 on Tue May 02, 2006 at 01:53:19 AM EST

Re: 419 and Florida (none / 0)

I wish the 50-state message would drift down to Florida. Notice which state had the largest number of uncontested races (after LA). And it's even worse at the state house and senate level. I can't believe they can't come up with a credible candidate in FL12 against Adam Putname. This is a district that is 41.5/37.5 DEM/REP...granted FL DEM doesn't mean strong DEM in the central part of the state, but it would help bring interest to an area that's vital in the Florida Governor's race.


by kansasr on Tue May 02, 2006 at 10:53:21 AM EST

Unopposed Indiana Senate Republican (none / 0)

I just read that Indidana Democrats have until June 30th to find someone to take on Lugar.  Any takers?


by msstaley on Wed May 03, 2006 at 11:05:30 AM EST


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