Rasmussen has completed a poll on the Democratic primary in Connecticut. Although the poll is currently in its subscription only-section, it shows Lieberman leading
Ned Lamont 51-30. There are no direct trendlines, but that is certainly a lot better than the first poll on this campaign,
conducted by Quinnipiac in February, which showed Lieberman leading Lamont 68-13. Lieberman at 51% is also consistent with
the numbers we have seen from Survey USA, where Lieberman has dropped to 54% approval among Democrats in Connecticut, and actually into slightly negative approval among self-identified liberals.
A lead cut from 55 to just 21 in ten weeks. An incumbent hovering around 50%, even after going on the air, and dripping rapidly. An opponent with lots of money, more than one thousand volunteers, and an army of bloggers in support. Even the most cynical election analysis of Lamont's challenge would have to remove Lieberman from the "safe" category now. The race is still not what I would call "already competitive," but it is clearly on the board.
Twenty points is still a big gap, and one has to wonder if Lamont can make up the rest of the distance in just fifteen weeks. Fortunately, history suggests yes. On May 1st, 2003,
Quinnipiac completed a poll on the Democratic presidential primary in Connecticut:
From April 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,239 Connecticut voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The survey includes 387 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
Lieberman: 46%
Dean: 6%
Others:37%
DK/NA 11%
Thirteen weeks later, only July 31st, 2003,
Quinnipiac released another poll on the Democratic Presidential primary in Connecticut:
From July 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,384 Connecticut voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The survey includes 427 Democrats with a margin of error of 4.7 percent.
Lieberman 37%
Dean 17%
Others: 37%
Don't Know: 10%
In three months, less the amount of time between now and the Connecticut primary, Dean caught up 20 points on Lieberman--exactly the deficit Lamont currently faces. By November, Lieberman's advantage on Dean had dropped to just five points. By late January, in a poll conducted by UConn, John Kerry held a 25% lead on Lieberman, who held only 18% support among the Democratic primary electorate. We are clearly dealing with a primary electorate in Connecticut that is open to supporting Democrats other than Lieberman.
You can feel a rumble happening. If Lieberman drops just five more points, he becomes officially endangered. I am going to Connecticut next Sunday, and I will provide a full report here. I think we are going to shock the world on this one.
Volunteer for Ned Lamont
Donate to Ned Lamont
