Over at CQPolitics.com, Bob Benenson asks the following questions:
Do the Democrats need to come up with a campaign platform similar to the Republicans' 1994 Contract With America in order to have a serious chance of claiming a majority in either or both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections this November? Or do they have a chance to win by just taking advantage of public dissatisfaction with the Republicans who control the White House and Congress?
For quite some time, I have been of the mindset that the Democrats need to have some sort of overarching message in order to actually make use of the Republican implosion, that a Contract with America-like document was necessary for victory this fall. But an interesting article by The Hill's A.B. Stoddard this week has me questioning my original line of thinking.
Twelve years after the Contract With America and the staggering GOP sweep, architects of the storied manifesto concede it played a more mythical than material role in victory.[...]
Exit polls showed that a majority of voters had not heard of the Contract With America on Nov. 8, 1994, when the GOP won 60 races to gain control of the House and Senate.
As Stoddard notes, in 1980 Newt Gingrich had held an event similar to the unveiling of the Contract with America 14 years later. Despite this elaborate event, the Republicans were still unable to pick up the House in 1980, a year in which Ronald Reagan overwhelmingly won the Presidential election, a Republican Senate was elected for the first time in 26 years. In fact, despite their pick up of 35 seats in that year's election, they still had far less seats than House Democrats have today.
So did the Contract with America help the Republicans in 1994? Perhaps. Maybe yes. But given the combination of NAFTA, gun control, the Clinton tax increase, the House banking scandal, the failed Clinton healthcare initiative, and the general conservative-funded effort to rid the country of Clinton -- combined with the fact that "a majority of voters had not heard of the Contract With America on Nov. 8, 1994" -- I'm not sold on the idea that the Contract was necessary to the Republicans' victory that fall.
And with Republican corruption, the War in Iraq, CAFTA, Hurricane Katrina, port security, a huge federal deficit and growing national debt, and President Bush faring far worse in the court of public opinion than Clinton was in 1994 -- Clinton's disapproval rating never got close to 62 percent, where Bush's disapproval number today stands, according to the recent AP poll -- I am finding it increasingly hard to believe that a document and an elaborate campaign event orchestrated by Democratic leaders are going to be the most important things on voters minds come November.
So do the Democrats need their own Contract with America? It probably couldn't hurt. That said, it's far from necessary for their victory this fall.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.