Mystery Pollster has an important post up. Gallup, which Chris has pointed out shows a higher number of Republican registered voters than other polling firms, has recorded a measurable move of Republicans to the Independent column.
According to Frank Newport, both parties tend to lose members after a Presidential election when the political environment is relatively low intensity, and gain members when the political environment heats up prior to a Presidential election. What's happening now is that Republicans are losing members, and Democrats are holding steady.
This could mean several things, but it adds further data to the idea of a Republican brand meltdown. Many Republicans like to think of their party as the party of 'adults' who can manage what those soft-hearted Democrats cannot. It is increasingly clear to these competence Republicans that the new and improved theocratic Republican Party isn't their home anymore, since the Republican leadership could care less about competence and prudence. Gallup's data also shows that the Democratic base isn't shrinking as it should, which adds a level of credence to Schumer's assertion that Democrats are fired up.
If traditional trends hold, we should see an upswing of Democratsic registrants heading into 2008, which means a clear and consistent Democrat registration advantage.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 7 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
