Considering the interviews I have given over the past two months, it has grown pretty clear to me that these straw polls are news worthy polls in an of themselves. However, as I mentioned before, there really isn't anyway for the MyDD straw poll to compete with the Dailykos straw poll.
Dailykos has the long-term trendlines, stretching back to June, because Markos has used a stable set of candidates. Dailykos has a much larger sample size and, because the poll is only open for a single day, it is more ore less immune to large-scale poll stuffing. Further, because the results of the MyDD straw polls were nearly identical to the Dailykos polls (at least before the stuffing set in), I had a little crisis back in February where I struggled to find a justification for continuing the MyDD straw poll. Why was it still relevant? What could MyDD offer that the Dailykos straw poll did not already provide and surpass? How could MyDD still play a role in this important activity?
The answer, I eventually decided, was instant run-off. While Dailykos has the trend-lines and the more reliable results, because we had been using
DemoChoice for our polls on MyDD, I realized it would be possible to learn not just who Dailykos and MyDD readers had for their first choice in 2008, but also who they had as their second, third, fourth, and even last choices. So, I contacted Markos and set up a link exchange where we agreed tos end our readers to each other's poll from now on. Then, I contacted the DemoChoice people, who were nice enough to offer me the raw data from our poll. Next, I selected roughly the first 1,000 results from the MYDD poll, so as to eliminate any stuffing from the equation, and to develop a representative sample of participants in the poll (the results in the MyDD poll after 1,000 participants were nearly identical to the results in the Dailykos poll after 14,000 participants). Finally, my brother Andy set up a database for that data, where it became possible for me to sort the candidate rankings almost any way imageable.
Now, I am proud to say, I can tell you all of the internals from the Dailykos / MyDD straw poll that you could every hope to learn. Ever wonder who Feingold supporters like second best? Ever wonder if Clark supporters prefer Edwards to Warner? Well, I can tell you all that. In fact, I am going to tell you all of that right now.
March 20-21, 1036 readers of Dailykos and MyDD
Overall (First Choice + Second Choice = Total)
Feingold: 48% + 20% = 68%
Clark: 15% + 22% = 37%
Warner: 12% + 14% = 26%
Edwards: 7% + 16% = 23%
Other: 3% + 10% = 13%
Unsure: 4% + 3% = 7%
Clinton: 2% + 4% = 6%
Richardson: 2% + 4% = 6%
Kerry 1% + 3% = 4%
Biden: 1% + 2% = 3%
Bayh: 1% + 2% = 3%
Daschle: 0% + 1% = 1%
Vilsack: 0% + 0% = 0%
(Notes: The "first choice" results are from the Dailykos poll of 14,000 readers, while the "second choice" resutls are from the first 1,036 results in the MyDD poll. I chose that number at random. Those votes were cast in less than two hours, and thus were generally stuff-proof.)
Clark narrowly leads the second choice poll, with 22% of all second choice ballots. Feingold comes in second with 20%. Edwards does remarkably well among second choice voters, with 16%. He even passes Warner, who has 14% of second-choice votes.
The overall numbers are particularly eye-popping. Feingold was either the first or second choice of more than two-thirds of all respondents. 85% of poll participants put either Feingold or Clark in their top two choices. Perhaps most remarkably of all, of the 1,036 participants in this sample, 977 or over 94%, put at least one of Clark, Feingold, Edwards and Warner in their top two choices. Only 24 people, or 2%, made a ticket composed entirely from Bayh, Biden, Clinton, Daschle, Kerry, Richardson, and Vilsack. There is a clear consensus online, and that consensus is that we want one of Feingold, Clark, Warner or Edwards on the Democratic ticket in 2008.
That finding, I believe, is news-worthy in and of itself. However, if that isn't enough for you, I also have the second-place choices for supporters of every single candidate:
Feingold supporters
Clark: 33%, Edwards 22%, Warner 15%
Clark Supporters
Feingold 41%, Warner 15%, Edwards 8%
Warner Supporters
Feingold 25%, Edwards 20%, Clark 17%
Edwards Supporters
Feingold 41%, Warner 21%, Clark 10%
"Other" Supporters
Feingold 51%, Clark 14%, Edwards 8%, Warner 8%
Clinton Supporters
Feingold 30%, Warner 15%, Clark 12%, Kerry 12%
Unsure / No Freaking Clue
Feingold 29%, Edwards 18%, Clark, Other and Warner: 12%
Everyone else in this poll has fewer than twenty supporters, so breaking down their second-place options becomes meaningless. It may surprise people that Feingold is main second choice for supporters of every other candidate, though his support is stronger among some supporters than others. The reason Clark had the overall most second-place votes is that Feingold secured nearly 50% of all the first place votes in the poll. If one were to look only at the possible universe of second place votes each candidate could have potentially received, Feingold would be in front:
- Feingold received 38% of second place votes for which he was eligible
- Clark received 25% of second place votes for which he was eligible
- Edwards received 16% of second place votes for which he was eligible
- Warner received 16% of second place votes for which he was eligible
- "Other" received 10% of second place votes for which it was eligible
It is also interesting to note how well Clark, Edwards and Warner did among non-Feingold supporters. Feingold supporters really liked Clark and Edwards, but if those second place votes are removed from the equation, Warner is actually the top second choice result. Outside of Feingold supporters, Warner received 13% of second place votes, while Clark and Edwards received 11%. Feingold received 38% of the second-place votes outside of Feingold supporters.
Overall, what does this data tell us about the netroots and 2008? Here are my thoughts:
- As I mentioned above, it is all Feingold, Clark, Edwards and Warner. None of the other current potential candidates have anything going for them online. Only 2% of all poll participants picked a first-second choice combination composed entirely from these seven candidates: Bayh, Biden, Clinton, Dsachle, Kerry, Richardson and Vilsack.
- Feingold's support is extremely broad. As the second-choice of supporters of every other candidate, he seems to appeal to netroots activists of every type.
- Even though he already has nearly a majority online, Feingold still equals Clark's potential for upward movement.
- "Other," by which most people probably mean Al Gore, would clearly be a player online if he made any move toward running whatsoever.
- Feingold's support might be overstated, considering that the poll was conducted only one week after he introduced the censure resolution. The May / June poll will tell us more.
Truly fascinating info. You can actually crawl through it yourself if you like.
The data can be found here, and the password is
y97bthaq. If anyone here ever doubted there was poll stuffing on behalf of Clark, just scroll down to the bottom of the data and you can see it in plain view for yourself. For those interested in full disclosure, my ballot was the very first one cast, and as such can be found at the top of the data file. I often switch around my choices after the first three, but I've grown pretty set on those first three. Also, I am not paid by any elected official, PAC, or campaign committee. In fact, to date I have never been paid by any elected official, PAC, or campaign committee in my entire life.
Hopefully tomorrow, I can have the "last place" choices data sorted. For a political numbers junkie like me, this is awesome.
