Americans' Bearish Attitudes Augur Poorly for Republicans

Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal and NBC (.pdf) released polling that showed President Bush's approval rating to be at an all-time low. Likewise, fewer Americans approve of the Republican Congress than ever before (or put another way, the last time Congress' approval numbers were this low was before the GOP takeover in 1994).

While these numbers certainly do not bode well for the Republican Party as it seeks to retain control of Congress in November, other data from the poll underscore even more fundamental weaknesses within the GOP and augur very well for the Democratic Party.

Pollsters and politics watchers often look at the right track/wrong track number from a poll to get a good sense of the mood of the American people -- whether they're content with the status quo, open to change or demanding change. The WSJ/NBC poll shows the right track/wrong track numbers today lower than they have been this century, with just 24 percent of Americans believing the country is heading in the right direction. Ominously for the GOP, the wrong track number today is not significantly different than it was in the summer of 1992, just three months before they lost their first Presidential election in 16 years.

This is not the only indicator that should have Republicans concerned. Today, only 17 percent of voters believe that the economy will be better in one year's time than it is today, with a whopping 44 percent believing that it will be worse. Only once have either of those numbers been worse in the last 15 years this question has been asked. Doubtless this number is tied to the very high prices Americans now pay for a gallon of gas, a worrisome fact for Republicans given that they have little stomach for the type of policies that could actually lead to lower gas prices (such as higher mileage standards).

But even leaving $3 a gallon gasoline aside, more Americans have been bearish than bullish about the American economy in every poll since May of 2005, indicating that Americans worries about the economy cannot be assuaged by a rising stock market or record corporate profits. Indeed, it very well could be that the great excesses at the top levels of the economy -- with the ultra-rich getting richer and huge corporations dominating every day Americans' small businesses -- are only exacerbating these concerns.

The economy and economic fairness in particular are issues tailor made for the Democratic Party. Over the next six months leading into election day, Democrats would be well served by sticking to their bread and butter by reminding the American people that a vote for the Republican Congress is a vote for a continuation of policies that hurt many Americans economically and that, what's more, a vote for the Democrats is a vote for the type of policies that helped foster the great economic growth of the 1990s. With a strong message on the economy, the Democrats can bring real change to Washington this year.




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