Hotline Polls Democrats

In addition to the 2006 Blogads readers survey, another major study of importance to the netroots has been released today. This study focuses entirely on self-identified Democrats, and was released by Hotline (PDF). There are lots of interesting aspects of this survey, including "liberal," "moderate" and "non-white" sub-group (and very small "progressive and "conservative" subgroups) but for the purposes of this post, I would like to focus on two questions in particular.

The first question directly relates to the size of the audience of the progressive blogosphere and netroots relative the all self-identified Democrats. The question can be found on page 14 of the study:
20. How often do you read "blogs" that deal with political issues?
Every Day: 8%
A few times a week: 9%
A few times a month: 6%
Less often than that: 10%
Never: 65%
Don't Know / Refused: 3%
I am pleasantly surprised to see results this high. I honestly did not expect that 8% of self-identified Democrats read political blogs every day, and 17% read them at least a few times a week. These results suggest the clear emergence of the progressive blogosphere as the centerpiece of the progressive media landscape. They also suggest a significantly great amount of power for the blogosphere within the progressive ecosystem as a whole.

The second question I wish to focus on can be found on page 16 of the report, and I find it interesting because it asks people about something they are rarely asked in public surveys: political strategy.
21B. Why do you think the Democratic party does not have a President in the White House?

Corruption within the Republican Party: 4%
Strong Republican Turnout: 7%
More Republicans than Democrats: 3%
Disorganization / weak platform for party: 10%
Money: 8%
Lack of decent Democratic representation: 11%
Bush: 1%
Political power of religious right: 3%
Bush / Republicans were better: 2%
Uninformed voters: 3%
Fear of terrorism: 2%
Bush stole election: 12%
Election process in general: 3%
Republican conservative values: 1%
Democrats are too liberal: 2%
Other: 10%
Don't know: 15%
Refused: 6%
The question looks like it was open ended. While fascinating, I have a real problem with this question. Personally I think I would list several of these reasons, but respondents appear to have only been allowed to give one reason (there are obviously multiple reasons for a Democrat not being in the White House, not just one). Now that a list of popular reasons have been given by Democrats in an open-ended questions, perhaps another survey would ask self-identified Democrats if they agreed or disagreed with each of these ideas. Now that would be a really interesting survey.

There was a similar question to this on page 14, referring entirely to congress. In that question, the "stole the election" number drops to zero, while the "corruption" and "disorganization / weak platform" answers increase significantly. I have to admit that it strikes me as a little strange that so many Dems think the Presidential election was stolen, but almost no one thinks the same thing about congressional elections.

There is a lot of other interesting information in the survey, although it does focus far too heavily on 2008 in general and Hillary Clinton in particular. Check it out (PDF). I also have to wonder how 55% of people who identify as non-white say they are protestants, and 61% say they are "born again" Christians. In fact, over two-thirds of all Democrats who identify as Protestant identify as "born again" or "evangelical." Not likely. This brings the famous words of Inigo Montoya to mind: "Yyou keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."



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Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

In fact, over two-thirds of all Democrats who identify as Protestant identify as "born again" or "evangelical." Not likely. This brings the famous words of Inigo Montoya to mind: "Yyou keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

Considering that evangelism is a core belief of Christianity and part of many mainline churches, I think it may not mean what you think it means.  Of course, I'm not Christian, so don't take my word for it.


by antidoto on Wed Apr 26, 2006 at 04:34:26 PM EST

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

I'm curious to hear Chris flesh out what he means by this. It certainly sounds like the old saw that that conservative religious beliefs preclude liberal political beliefs. I would fall under the two-thirds of Democrats who identify as Protestant and identify as "born again" or "evangelical".


by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 26, 2006 at 08:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

All I meant by it was that, as far as I knew, "born again" and "evangelical" were specific tpyes of Protestantism. And mainline Protestants are a lot more than 1/3 of the Protestant population.
by Chris Bowers on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 12:06:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (3.00 / 1)

i worked on this poll as a phoner.

the bron again/evangelical question appears on alomost every poll and it confuses respondents every time it is asked. many respond, i guess so.  catho9lics say no. even though it is a standard question it should be removed or at least reworded.

the most relevant question is "how often to you attend religous services" which correltates with conservative leaning voters.

the polldemonstrates that name recognition of candadtes is still very low, explaining the kerry, clinton edwards huigher votes.


by ebbak on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 06:29:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

"I have to admit that it strikes me as a little strange that so many Dems think the Presidential election was stolen, but almost no one thinks the same thing about congressional elections."

Not really.  The stealing of congressional elections is much more subtle, because it relies on gerrymandering to force districts into shapes that favor incumbents.  Its harder to call an election "stolen" when someone wins it 60/40 than when someone gets the popular vote and the Supreme Court throws the election to the other guy.

"I also have to wonder how 55% of people who identify as non-white say they are protestants, and 61% say they are "born again" Christians. In fact, over two-thirds of all Democrats who identify as Protestant identify as "born again" or "evangelical." Not likely."

Why is this not likely?  And why is it odd that 55% of folks who identify as "non-white" say they are protestants?  Most of the black and asian Christians I know are Protestants, not Catholics.  "Born Again" christians cover a wide base too - wasn't Bill Clinton as Born Again Christian?  I'm fairly certain that Jimmy Carter was too.

Don't fall into the Republican trap - "born again" doesn't mean that they instantly fall into a Republican worldview - Republicans just keep saying that it does and hope that folks believe them.


by NonyNony on Wed Apr 26, 2006 at 04:45:52 PM EST

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

I'm surprised by the percerntages, too, but then again, the numbers track with what our expanding influence feels like.

The quantitative person in me is surprised by these results, but the qualitative person, the blogger and netroots organizer in me, is not.


by Pachacutec on Wed Apr 26, 2006 at 05:27:00 PM EST

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

I think that you are confusing "born again", "evangelical", and "fundamentalist". These refer to different things. It seems likely that you are equating evangelical Christians with fundamentalist Christians. They are not the same.

Only about a quarter of the population (maybe a little less/more) are fundamentalist. These groups are more likley to be conservative because they believe that the Bible is literally the word of God and should therefore be interpreted literally.

Not so necessarily with evangelicals. Evangelists focus on the personal acceptance of God and Jesus Christ "as your personal savior" based on a moment of conversion. Evangelism encompasses a wide variety of sects with wildly varying beliefs about Christianity. The one thing that they share is that they are Protestant Christians, rather than Roman Catholic. However, the term evangelic has often been used interchangeably with the term Christian, so it is no surprise that large proportions of Protestants define themselves as Evangelical.


by taraleigh on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 02:02:17 AM EST

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

Nothing in here has addressed the central issue which is really question #20.

65% of Democrats could care less what we talk about and yet a large percentage of bloggers and readers think they should be calling the shots.

I have my own take at The Political Dogfight.

Chris, I think this deserves a lot more examination.


...just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg at PolCampaign
by BigDog on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 11:32:04 AM EST

Re: Hotline Polls Democrats (none / 0)

There was a similar question to this on page 14, referring entirely to congress. In that question, the "stole the election" number drops to zero, while the "corruption" and "disorganization / weak platform" answers increase significantly. I have to admit that it strikes me as a little strange that so many Dems think the Presidential election was stolen, but almost no one thinks the same thing about congressional elections.

Why is this so surprising?  The last two Presidential elections have been very close, making them possible to steal through manipulations of voting machinery.  

In contrast, very few Congressional races are at all close, as a result of gerrymandering, and while gerrymandering may not be fair, it isn't a "stolen" election in the sense of a corrupt balloting process when a Republican wins a district that is 70% Republican in voter registration, or a Democratic wins a similarly blue district.

For example, "[T]he 2004 U.S. House election recorded an unprecedented lack of competition. Fewer than 3% (12) of the 435 races were won by a margin of less than 7%; only 10 races were won by tight margins of 5% or less. There has never been such a small number of highly competitive races in American history. . . . The average victory margin was 40, meaning the average two-party race was won by 70% to 30% of the vote. Seven of every eight (83%) U.S. House races were won by landslide margins of at least 20% in 2004. Only 23 races (5%) were won by competitive margins of less than 10%. . . . Outside of Texas [where the districts were redrawn], 397 of 403 House seats stayed with the same party."

With a 29 seat gap between Republicans and Democrats, there would have to be fraud to the tune of more than 7% of the vote in every single close race in the nation, spread across many states with many different voting systems controlled by officials with different partisan affiliations for this to have changed the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

In the Senate, there is an 11 seat gap, meaning that for the balance of power to shift, ballot fraud would have had to shift in at least six races out of 34 to make a difference, each in a different state.  The only remotely close races were South Dakota, North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Colorado and Alaska.  Democrats won one of those races, and Republicans won five, which means that even if every single one of those Republican victories was a fraud, that Republicans would still have controlled the Senate, and while some of those races were somewhat close, only South Dakota involved a razor thin margin.


by ohwilleke on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 07:17:20 PM EST


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