In response to kos and others, I feel it is important for me to point out something about
the partisan leanings of the CA-50 in order to keep my head form exploding. Yes, as everyone likes to say, Kerry pulled 43.9% in this district in 2004, giving the 50th a national partisan index of RNC +9.9. Supposedly, because Kerry hit 43.9% in CA-50, Busby is doing poorly unless she is above that line herself. However, in a district that is clearly in transition, the national partisan index is not the appropriate benchmark. This district is filled with RINOs, who are trending for Democrats in national elections, but still voting heavily for local Republicans ("their" type of Republicans). This is a voting phenomenon common to many areas in transition, where local partisans abandon the national manifestations of their party first, but cling to the local manifestations of their party for a much longer period of time (see
this map of state legislatures in the South if you are unconvinced by this argument). Notice, for example, how Democrats in the South first began voting for Republican Presidential nominees like Goldwater and Nixon while they will still sending Democrats to Congress in droves. While Democrats lost hold of the "solid south" in Presidential elections once and for all in 1980, it was not until the 1994 landslide that the south stopped sending a majority Democratic delegation to Congress. For any district in transition, the Presidential swing will always happen first. Local elections, including congressional elections, will take much longer.
To develop a better sense of why 44% is a very good total for Busby in the primary, and why being tied in the latest poll is also good news, look not at the presidential partisan indexes, but at more
local partisan indexes in CA-50. In 2004, the Senate partisan index in this district was RNC +19.9, ten points higher than the presidential index. In the 2003 Gubernatorial election, it was RNC +25.6, more than fifteen points above the Presidential partisan index. In the 2002 Gubernatorial election, it was RNC +23.2, thirteen points above the Presidential partisan index. Republicans also have a 14.8% advantage in party registration in this district. Given these numbers, Busby's current performance in an even more local election is not bad at all. In fact, a 45-43 Bilbray "lead" indicates a swing of anywhere form 6.5% Democratic to 11.8% Democratic in this district. That is hardly "terrible."
Swallowing the Kerry performance in this district as the appropriate target for Busby is exactly what Republicans want. However, it simply is not accurate. Local and national partisan voting tendencies are not identical, as anyone with a campaign background can tell you. It does not take a lot of research to discover that the local partisan indexes in CA-50 a much more favorable to Republicans than the national partisan indexes. We ignore that research and accept Republican spin on this election at our own peril.
