I suspect that the main reason why independents are quick to drop lieberman is simply because they have no loyalty to democrats.

Are Connecticut primaries open?  When would Lieberman have to file as an indy?

I'm notoriously skeptical of polls early in a mid-term election but the above really does indicate that something is going on in CT.  I still have to believe, however, that Lieberman is a huge favorite in a Dem primary but CT is not a state that I know much about.  I do remember that Lowell Weicker went the indy route and got elected as Governor.

Officially leaving the Dem. Party would be a real humiliation for Lieberman.  I have to believe that he will fight hard to avoid that.

I hope that Joementum jumps now. That would force many DC Dems to have to take a stand. They can't be wishy washy about who they would support in CT. Let's get that on the table and put Schumer and the DSCC on the spot.

It will also give Lamont instant credibility. He will receive a ton of media and his name ID will go up tremendously. He could then have a real shot in Nov.

If Lieberman should somehow manage to pull this one out while remaining a Democrat, does this mean his numbers will shoot back up immediately afterward, as Lamont supporters hold their noses and support the nominee?

There is going to be a HUGE backlash at the Convention.

Democratic members of the Town committees are openly supporting Lamont now. We shall see what happens but watch this space on May 20 for results! I'll be there. Who wants the first phone call from the floor with the total?

Matt: I'm not sure I agree with your analysis. There is no magic to Lieberman's approval sinking below disapproval among liberals. Nor his sinking approval among Independents. If we posit that, since Lieberman has not spent a dime (of his unlimited warchest) and that Lamont has gotten 3-4 months of uniformly great press, the 46% OF LIBERALS who still approve of Lieberman are going to be awfully hard to pull away. Knowing that, and knowing that independents never show up (if they're even allowed to, I'm not sure) in primaries, where the hell is Lamont going to get 50% from? He can't win with 46% of liberals supporting Lieberman. He can't even win with 40%. I'm guessing he needs that number to go down to 35 or something. Tell me where Lamont gets 50% of the vote on primary day, when he's being outspent 7 or  8 to one starting (I take it) today? This is still very much just wishful thinking, and the primary is only 100 days away or so.

Also, Joe's shrinking popularity among independents, combined with the presence of 2 semi-serious Republicans now, makes it very dicey for him to leave the party and still win. I seriously doubt he's even considering it. In any case, wait until he starts going negative on Ned before you assume he's worried about losing. No way he goes down without trying to muddy up Lamont, and so far his ads are pure positive.

Here's a question: are Democrats more liberal than Independents?

I know that normally, you would expect the Democrats to be more liberal.  But right now, liberals are feeling very unrepresented by the party.  Is it possible that centrists actually feel at home calling themselves Democrats, whereas true liberals consider themselves Independents?

Lamont's money came mostly from small donors on the web. And how high can that go?

Very very high.  Moveon hasn't moved on this.  Your analysis of the race is off, though I would say generically that you'd make a great insider.

(Full discloser:  I am a staffer for Ned Lamont.  What follows is my view.  It isn't any sort of official campaign statement, but it hopefully reflects what a lot of us are feeling.)

Are Connecticut primaries open?
No.  You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the primary.  Republicans have until May 8th to change parties.  Independents have until a few days before the primary to make the change.

When would Lieberman have to file as an indy?
A day or two after the primary.  The only way he could do this would be if he started collecting signatures before the primary.

Why has no one suggested the possibility that the Rethugs will hand him THEIR nomination?
This had been discussed in the press, including an endorsement by Chris Shays (R CT-4).  Republican leadership has said the idea is dead and there are two Republican candidates already, with a third being rumored.  They are Paul Streitz, who is running on defending the Connecticut-Mexico border, and Alan Schlesinger running on support of Bush and the need to privatize social security.  A third candidate, Jack Orchulli, who ran against Dodd last time, is also rumored to be considering another run.

There is going to be a HUGE backlash at the Convention
It will be very interesting to see how the vote turns out.  All we need is 15% of the delegates to get on the ballot.  Anything else is gravy.  You can bet, however, that Lieberman operatives are doing everything they can to contact delegates and party leaders to keep things under control at the convention.  Read this story to hear about one blogger/delegates call from the Lieberman camp.

If we posit that, since Lieberman has not spent a dime (of his unlimited warchest) and that Lamont has gotten 3-4 months of uniformly great press  However, Lieberman's campaign has been on the ground very hard here.  They've been running advertisements, first radio, now TV, and the ads are pretty weak.  Meanwhile, Lamont has been getting good press, but it has only been a month, maybe two.  Remember, Lamont declare just over a month ago.

As to Lieberman's unlimited war chest, it is worth noting that a lot of Lieberman's money has come from couples that have contributed $8,400.  How do they do that?  Each person contributes $2,100 to the primary campaign and $2,100 to the general election.  These people are maxed out and cannot contribute more.  Also, only half of the money that has been contributed can be used in the primary.  It would be interesting to find out how much of Lieberman's war chest is reserved for the general election.  I'l bet it is at least half a million.

Lamont's money came mostly from small donors on the web. And how high can that go?
As Matt said, very high.  Everyone who contributed $5 can contribute another $5 bucks this month.  MoveOn hasn't stepped in.  DFA hasn't stepped in.  

There hasn't been an existing model for what's going in Connecticut right now.
I think this is very important.  If we play the traditional ground game of building up a large war chest and counting on media buys to swing low-information, episodic voters win the game, we don't have a chance.  If we follow Lazarsfeld's observation "that many voters regard family members and close personal friends, and not the mass media, as major influences in the decision making process".  What we need to be doing is spreading the word virally to all our friends, neighbors and relatives, in part the way folks have been doing very creatively in the Nedhead's group on YouTube.

Let's not get too complicated when it comes to Joe Lieberman, because that is giving him too much credit.

I'm a relative moderate (well, actually, more of a mixed bag nut job), and I hate Lieberman to the ends of this earth.

He is arrogant, self-aggrandizing and an outright jerk.

When presented with internal opposition, he threatens to walk instead of asking fellow Democrats what he can do for them.  That tells you everything you need to know about Joe.

Whether it's shilling for Israel or covering Bush's ass on Social Security, Lieberman is pretty half-assed even as conservative Democrats go.

When Lieberman wins the primary by a comfortable margin, will Matt Stoller...

a)  Admit that he had absolutely no insight into this race?

or...

b)  Admit that he was just trying to talk up a campaign that he really knew had no chance whatsoever.

In this thread,

howardpark said:

"I still have to believe, however, that Lieberman is a huge favorite in a Dem primary"

and ColoDem said:

"Tell me where Lamont gets 50% of the vote on primary day"

and JPhurst said:

"When Lieberman wins the primary by a comfortable margin"

Fellas, I am a lifelong resident of Connecticut, and I came here to tell you that

LIEBERMAN IS V-E-R-Y AFRAID OF A PRIMARY WITH LAMONT!

And, here is how & why I can say that with confidence:

I took special note back in 2004 of the particular timing of when Lieberman dropped out of the 2004 Democratic presidential primary race, a timing which happened to be just before Connecticut was itself to have its own Democratic presidential primary.

Now, why do you suppose that Lieberman, being a Connecticut favorite son and all, did not at least run in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary for ha-ha's to at least accrue all the local political capital and local glory that a native son typically gets doing such?

Well, I strongly believe that Lieberman strategically avoided running in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary because Lieberman had concluded that he would have LOST BADLY in such and that he would have thus been profoundly humiliated in and by his own native son state!

You see, Lieberman already knew back in 2004 that because of his nutcase pro-Bush hawkish Iraq war position that he was already dogmeat with the progressive Connecticut Democrats that typically dominate Connecticut's Democratic primaries, in which only registered Democrats can participate.

Now, if back in 2004 Lieberman already knew that he was dogmeat with the Connecticut Democratic primary-voting base enough to scare him out of running in the 2004 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary as a native son, you can just imagine how much MORE Lieberman fears that same progressive Connecticut Democratic primary-voting base now in 2006!

So, despite all the haughty talk by the pro-Lieberman types, I really think that Lieberman already believes and fears that he will LOSE to Lamont in a Connecticut Democratic senatorial primary in 2006, just like Lieberman feared losing in the Connecticut Democratic presidential primary back in 2004!

So, the question therefore is, in 2006 will Lieberman be a coward AGAIN and run away AGAIN from a Connecticut Democratic primary, just like the coward he was back in 2004 when Lieberman dropped out just in time to avoid the 2004 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary?

I say, if Lieberman did it in 2004, he can certainly do it again in 2006.