New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll

Lots of good stuff here:
  • Ben Nelson is the most approved of Senator in the nation, at 73-19. No one has ever lost, or even been close to losing, re-election with a net approval of 54%. I don't care if this is Nebraska--the guy is deeply loved and he is only going up. So, I'm taking that one off the board.

  • Lieberman's approval among Democrats is down to 54-41, pushing him close to real vulnerability in the primary. His approval among Republicans is 70-24. No wonder he is threatening to leave the party.

  • Santorum's approval rating is 39-53, the worst in the nation. These numbers are almost precisely what he is losing by in most polls. Also, Santorum only has a 58% approval rating among Republicans. His base isn't exactly fired up for him. I know there are a lot of people online who are clinging to the belief that Casey is somehow going to lose this thing because he is too conservative, but frankly I think these people are letting their ideological outlook cloud their election analysis. The person who received the most votes in the history of a state is not going to lose to an incumbent with a 39% approval rating. Not. Gonna. Happen. But please, tell me more theories on why the most popular person in the state is going to lose to the least popular person in the state. I find these theories intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

  • More endangered and potentially Republican incumbents include Burns (39-52), Kyl (45-42), Talent (48-43), DeWine (48-41) Allen (48-39), Ensign (49-36), and Chafee (52-39).

  • Endangered and potentially endangered Democrats include Stabenow (45-43), Cantwell (48-41), Bill Nelson (48-33) and the already mentioned Lieberman.

  • Democrats dominate the top 15, with ten. Republicans only have four of the top fifteen. Republicans also have sixteen of the bottom twenty-three.
Cool beans. What a good day for polls.



Display:


Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Fantastic news!  And I agree, we need to embrace political reality.  Let's elect Casey, McCaskill, Pederson, and Lamont.  Primary people who are sufficiently blue in blue states.  But but let's embrace anything that can make a majority leader out of Reid.  Period.  

When we have a 55 or more seat majority, then we can then take a look at ideological purity.  But even then, we cannot even go there in states like Nebraska.  We are fortunate indeed to have a distinguished man like Ben Nelson in that blood-red state.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:12:39 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

*INsufficiently.  sorry.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:17:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

If you are not true to your important, cherished principles, you may well find yourself much worse off in the long run.  For example, when women's reproductive, privacy, religious tolerance freedoms are taken away with the help of pro-life Dems, there will be nobody to really blame and turn on anymore, so where will progbressives turn. Pro-choice repubs??  Think people, think!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

True, but only if (none / 0)

anti choice candidates make a majority. 1 or 2 won't make a difference if Democrats are in the majority. If the GOP holds its majority, 1 or 2 more aren't going to make much of a difference in that case either.  

I don't like it, but I can live with it, pro hoc vice, if it means a majority that is left of center that isn't lead by anti choice religious zealots as opposed to a majority led by extreme rightwingers. Once a majority is obtained, the next phase should be pushing it further leftward. Things are bad enough, that I can live with Casey for now.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True, but only if (3.00 / 1)

As a reply to you, ley me re-post here what I posted above.  Basically Pro-reproductive freedom, privacy, religious tolerance forces canot win if they overlook the states that can be won by principled candidates (our principles), and PA is such a state.
-----------------

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

This is the line I am hearing, and if PA was a red, red state, then I would buy the trade off you mention.  However, PA should be able to produce a progressive pro-choice senator if there is a big GOTV effort because Rendell, Spectre and Ridge are all pro-choice.

If we take the easy short term road and give in to the dark side in a place like PA, I fear we will still lose these freedoms and then have no other party to blame.  I cannot be a part of that which I clearly see coming if we back the likes of young Casey!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree with you in principle (none / 0)

It sucks that you Pennsylvanians are stuck with Casey and no primary opponent. I wish you did have a primary opponent who is more in line with your views. If you did, I would tell you to fight like hell for that candidate.   I suspect this is going to be a close race, precisely for the reasons you articulate.

However, it is, what it is. All I ask, is you hold your nose, this one time. You've got 6 years after that to organize, find a primary challenger and I hope you and your fellow Pennsylvanian progressives do and you should demand that everyone who asked you to hold your nose (me included) in 2006, pony up for that challenger.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It is much deeper than that. (none / 0)

The deeper question for all you so-called progressives is why is the democractic establishment so strongly and so early in its backing of a pro-lifer who is also strongly socially conservative based on his religious desires to force (I guess) his beleifs on everyone. Sound familiar.  What ARE the main principles of the party establishment that they do not work hard early on to find a progressive that cannad could win in PA??

I am faced with the awful realization that the Dem party establishment is willing to secede women's privacy, reproductive freedom, religious tolerance issues, and that I cannot be a part of.  Who will the country then turn to when these freedoms are gone and the women majority then wakes up and goes nuts?? They will not look kindly on the unprincipled democracts.

We must think in a principle guided fashion on such issues, and think longer term.


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:57:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Excuse me (none / 0)

  1. I never promoted Casey strongly or early. Who are the socalled progressives are  you addressing. If me, you are barking up the wrong tree.
  2. I am not "willing to secede (sic) women's privacy, reproductive freedom, religious tolerance issues" (nor am I, by any stretch of the imagination, part of the establishment).  Presumably you were not addressing that comment in my direction. I don't for reasons previously explained, believe that 2 votes are going to make a difference.
  3. I think an argument can be made that the long view requires voting for Casey, if the only other choice is Santorum, because this may be the best chance to get him out now. Santorum is unpopular today, he carries the weight of Bush. 6 years from now, without the weight of Bush, he may not be beatable. Strike while the iron is hot.
  4.  I think an argument can be made that the long view requires voting for Casey, becasue empowering a Democratic majority (even a majority that includes Reid and Casey) will be the only way to protect women's privacy, reproductive freedom and religious tolerance issues particurally when refusal to do so may give a majority to an extremist GOP majority which would cede women's privacy, reproductive freedom and religious tolerance to the tender mercies of senators who are in bed with Dobson, Fallwell and Roberston.

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Excuse me (none / 0)

It depends what you consider the long view.  Casey is clear: he wants Roe overturned.  He draws the line at Griswold.  I'm not going to let the Dems think that that's the kind of person they can run in PA.  If I did, I'd be betraying myself and women all over the country.  No thank you.

But this isn't a single-issue thing.  Labor rights are in the same dire straits as reproductive rights.  Our government is infested with corporate money that buy bad laws.  Bob Casey doesn't do anything to stop any of that and neither does the Dem leadership.  Why reward that bad behavior by supporting the party when they force more of the same down our throats?  

If people voted their conscience on May 16th in PA instead of worrying about who's allegedly electable (people who love to use that word as a bludgeon haven't been right on that yet, by the way) we'd have a real Dem candidate who can beat Santorum.  


by eRobin on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 11:37:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is much deeper than that. (none / 0)

"I am faced with the awful realization that the Dem party establishment is willing to secede women's privacy, reproductive freedom, religious tolerance issues, and that I cannot be a part of.  Who will the country then turn to when these freedoms are gone and the women majority then wakes up and goes nuts?? They will not look kindly on the unprincipled democracts."

Suppose you were faced with two Democratic candidates, one who was "pro-life" but not a crazy (say she supported some restrictions on abortion didn't support extreme measures like the South Dakota bill), but was otherwise a Bernie Sanders Democrat. The other candidate was a sort of a Paul Tsongas, budget hawk who is open to DLC-lie anti-big government "sensibleness". Which one do you choose. IMO the Dems ought to go with the Bernie Sanders guy; not supporting progressive economics is a disqualifier for membership in the Democratic Party. The "social liberal, fiscal conservative" Democrat has killed us with working class Americans. When was the last time a President actually supported National Health Care? 1948 when Harry Truman did. Look how much ground we've lost since then!

Keith


by keith johnson on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is much deeper than that. (none / 0)

Right on!!!  Democrats need to get back to their economic roots.  THAT'S the way to get Hispanic voters, black voters, and an economic message is something that will effectively counter any Republican advantage on "values" issues in the South, West, and rural areas.

However, the fiscal conservative Dems are owned by corporations who demand adherence to the DLC bullshit.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you in principle (2.50 / 2)

I'm not even convinced it makes sense to hold one's nose and vote for Casey.  Which of the following scenarios will be easier six years from now?
a) Winning a primary challenge against popular Casey
b) Winning a general election against crackpot Santorum

Anyway, the best we could possibly hope for in the Senate this year, assuming all the close races go our way, is a very thin majority, and if some of that majority is Liebermans and Caseys, we won't be able to do anything with it. A thin minority might be a better setup for taking a more solid majority in '08.


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:59:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you in principle (none / 0)

since everyone seems to enjoy pointing out how Casey lost the primary to Rendell in '02, I'd go with option a.


by johnny longtorso on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you in principle (none / 0)

If Pennslyvania is so much more liberal than Casey as claimed, then presumably winning a primary challenge 6 years from now is doable. Conversely, Santorum has the weight of Bush on him in 06, but will not in 2012.  A thin Democratic Majority is more likely to portect women's privacy, reproductive freedom, and preserve religious tolerance, than a thin GOP majority. Indeed, as we have already seen, a thin GOP majority can do much damage.  

So yes, it makes sense. Its not pleasant. I am a pragmatic FDR Democrat, I want to win. I wouldn't vote for an entire party of Casey's (indeed I would quit that party), but that is not what is being offered here.

Al Gore wasn't good enough or pure enough for a lot of folks in 2000. Specifically the 200,000 or so in Florida who voted for Nader over Gore because they thought there was no difference in Gore and Bush.  We are paying for that now. Casey may be the price we are paying for those so called progressives who dissed Gore in 2000 and voted for Nader.

I believe a Democratic Majority is more likely to protect women's privacy, etc. If Casey is what it takes to get that majority, so be it.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with you in principle (none / 0)

Democrats will hold their nose and vote for Casey, and Casey will beat Santorum.  That's what's going to happen.  Liberals will run a primary challenge against him in six years and lose.  My carping about it isn't going to change any of that.

But it's stupid.  There's no need for it.  It's not one of those situations where we should have to compromise, at least, not so badly.  Democrats keep treating their values as political losers, and sure enough, they become exactly that.

I'll keep bitching, but I don't expect to change anything.


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What are your choices in PA? (none / 0)

As far as I know there are only 2 candidates at this point: Casey and Santorum.

Sitting out is not an option in 06.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:30:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the real question (none / 0)

Which will be easier to stomach one year from now?

The US Senate with Santorum, or the US Senate without Santorum?

Put another way, will it be easier to remove the mote from our own eyes with, or without, the Republicans continually smacking us in the face with nail-studded beams?


by admiralnaismith on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:16:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You want Santorum for six more years? (none / 0)

Nice.  Thanks a lot for that, asshat. :(

Who's to say the Dems don't renominate Casey six years from now if Santorum wins, hmmm?

In every general election, take a look at all the canidates who have a chance to win, that is, who at least polling in the double digits.  99%+ of the time, this will be the Republican and the Democrat, and only those two.  Then, pick the canidate you like the most.  If you hate them both, pick the canidate you hate the least.

This is not a perfect world.  Stop defeating possible at the hands of perfection.  Didn't Nader 2000 teach you anything?

Vote for whoever you want in the primary.


by Geotpf on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 06:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Although it was as a non-incumbent and in a presidential year I believe he was a very popular governor and ended up wining by a much closer margin then many polls showed.


by rtaycher1987 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:12:43 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Tim Johnson is at 67% right now and 4 years ago almost lost his reelection campaign. I don't think that we can get complacent under any circumstances in a state as Republican as Nebraska.


by JCarlFinn5 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:32:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Yeah, and he beat John Thune. The man who beat Tom Daschle and is a celebrity in the republican party right now, he's already being mentioned as a potential runningmate on the '08 gop ticket.


by zt155 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Great. Let them run Thune for something else.  We can't get Senator Herseth fast enough to suit me.


by admiralnaismith on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

I meant in his first election in 2000.


by rtaycher1987 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:14:44 PM EST

What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

I'm surprised to see Russ Feingold at #72 with a slim approval rating of 53%-42%. What's behind that? If Joe Lieberman's ratings are similar to Feingold's, then shouldn't that make Feingold vunerable too? Especially if running for Prez. in '08!

I don't know.

Love to hear what folks have to say or if this poll REALLY represents what Wisconsin voters feel about him.


by Brattlerouser on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:16:28 PM EST

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Feingold has always been polarizing, even in a state like WI that has a populist majority.  He wins by 55% at the most.  I like him but he has always been even more polarizing than people accuse HRC of.  Hmmm.  He's my second choice behind her, though.  I'd love to see him as AG if he's a lawyer.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Looking at the 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates.

Hillary Clinton has the highest approval rating Amongs Democrats- 84-13% Followed by
John Kerry- 76-21%
Evan Bayh- 75%-21%
Joe Biden- 73%-19%
Russell Fiengold- 73%-21%
Bill Richardson- 64-31%
John Kerry has the highest approval rating among Liberals- 78-17% followed by
Hillary Clinton- 77%-20%
Bill Richardson- 75%-20%
Joe Biden- 72-19%
Russell Fiengold- 71-25%
Evan Bayh- 61-31%
Bill Richardson has the highest approval rating among Independents- 60-33 followed by
Evan Bayh- 59-34
Russell Fiengold- 58-39
Joe Biden- 54-39
Hillary Clinton- 57-40
John Kerry- 49-47
Evan Bayh has the highest approval rating among Moderates- 69-24% followed by
Joe Biden- 66%-30%
Hillary Clinton- 65%-32%
Russell Fiengold- 62-32
Bill Richardson- 62-33
John Kerry- 54-43
Bill Richardson has the highest approval rating among Republicans- 51-47 Followed by
Evan Bayh- 47-44
Joe Biden- 40-55
Hillary Clinton- 29-68
Russell Fiengold- 24-72
John Kerry- 21-78
Evan Bayh has the highest approval rating among among Conservatives- 52-43 followed by
Bill Richardson- 49-48
Hillary Clinton- 45-54
Joe Biden- 39-54
John Kerry- 33-65
Russell Fiengold- 31-65

Hillary,Biden,Kerry,and Fiengold lack crossover appeal

Bayh and Richardson have broadbased support.


by CMBurns on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 07:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

But those people who are Republicans in that survey don't even know anyone on the D side except Hillary.  People's minds are made up about her.  She gets the highest rating of Ds plus 20% of Rs.  And that is static because, like I said, she has 100% name ID.  Whereas as soon as negative ads heta up, the Feingold and other numbers will slide down amongst all groups.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 07:58:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Evan Bayh is popular in a very red state. You bet your butt they know who he is.


by zt155 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

The Republicans didn't skew that poll. Looking at a list of Democrats they don't know, the Republicans notice that Feingold "sounds Jewish". That's the only thing a Republican needs to know.

His popularity is exclusively from Dems and Indys.  And I kinda trust him more because of that.


by admiralnaismith on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Russ does well with the Independents, but after the censure resolution his approval amongst Republicans has totally dropped down to 24%, while Herb Kohl still maintains more decent Republican Approvals.

Remember, Wisconsin is a 50-50 state that probably gave its electoral votes to the Democrats in thanks to the re-election campaigns of Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold.


by KainIIIC on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:25:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Joe Lieberman is in a similar positition as Lincoln Chafee.

Joe Lieberman- a Democrat has a 54% Approval Rating Among Democrats -
On Ideology- Lieberman has a approval rating of 46%-49% among Liberals
Lincoln Chafee - Republican has a 52% Approval Rating Among Republicans
On Ideology- Chafee has a approval rating of 45%-47% among Conservatives.

Lieberman and Chafee are unpopular with the base of the their political party.

Fiengold- is just hated by Republicans and Conservatives.


by CMBurns on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 06:20:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's wrong with Russ? (none / 0)

Rightfully so! Feingold's sticking it to them in their face! And it's about time.


by KainIIIC on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:26:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lieberman and Chafee are facing primaries (none / 0)

Chafee seems destined to lose the primary, and then the Republicans will lose the seat in the general.

Lieberman is a bit different, in that while he might lose in the primary, his challenger probably will win in the general.

As for Russ, he has always been a bit of a firebrand, especially recently with the censure resolution.  However, I think he possesses certain political skills that he can call upon if needed.  That is, I think if he cared, he could push his numbers with Republicans higher, and he will be able to do so in the general.  But for now, he needs to aim at Democrats (to have a chance at winning the nonmination), so he isn't doing that-yet.  That is, during an actual presidential campaign, he will be able to pull in Republicans in numbers that aren't reflected in his current polling results.  Maybe I'm overestimating the man, though.  In any case, he has positive numbers amoungst indies, and that's what you need to win.


by Geotpf on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 06:22:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Chris: Love your comments on PA. Stuff that needs to be said a lot, and glad you said it. Sometimes you just need to point out that the sky is indeed blue.

Not sure 54-41 (Lieberman or Feingold) really constitutes "vulnerable," or even "edging toward vulnerable." Check the deep numbers on Lieberman. Even among self-described liberals, he's still hanging in there at 46%. Where the heck is Lamont going to get 50% from? And that's before Lieberman starts spending his (unlimited, basically) money on nice warm fuzzy ads, like the ones that just came out today (and are on his website, if you're interested).


by ColoDem on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:33:49 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

This is my third post on this thread and I don't want to "overpost", but I must answer your Lamont/Lieberman question.  To have only a 54-41 lead in his own party as an 18year incumbent way before the primary campaign begins in earnest is VERY troubling for Joe.  It's April and Lamont needs nine points?  No wonder Joe is sweatin'.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (3.00 / 1)

About Casey: You should really watch him in action. The two under funded guys cleaned his clock. You're also asking intelligent women to vote against their own interestes and their own potential criminalization...Not to mention the war against contraception. Casey is just a horrible choice. Keep  in mind: Santorum's base will vote. I'm, allegedly, part of Casey's base and can't stand the guy. Then there's the broken machines we'll all be using...

Philip Shropshire
www.threeriversonline.com


by pshropshire on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:53:34 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

A vote for Casey is a vote for Harry Reid to be majority leader. The majority party controls the agenda. When Tom Daschle was majority leader he buried the partial birth abortion bill even though it had the votes in the Senate to pass. Just something to think about...


by Matt42 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 07:31:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

THINK ABOUT THIS (none / 0)

Harry Reid is roife. If you end up with a Senate full of pro-lifers, it will not matter what party they belong to as far as women's reproductive/religious tolerance rights are concerned.


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:34:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

do the math (none / 0)

Reid and Casey are 2 votes. If Democrats retake the Senate, I am not real worried about their two votes. If the GOP keeps its majority, their two votes are not going to matter either, because the GOP won't need their two votes for their social agenda.

If you are that worried about Casey and Reid, work harder for a bigger center left majority so as to marginalize their two votes. The first goal is to get a majority, the 2nd phase is to push it to the left.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:33:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: do the math (none / 0)

See my answer to you below. Give up on PA, a blue bellweather state, and such freedoms are a goner!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

See my reply upthread (none / 0)

There is a difference in a short term strategy and long term strategy. I am not giving up on any state.

I sincerely wish you did have a better candidate. If Casey wins, I hope you find ways to remind him that the majority of Pennslyvanians are pro choice. Daily.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: See my reply upthread (none / 0)

If Casey cannot now see the value of being pro-choice in that he can still have his religious freedom decisions but still let others have theirs, well then he is a religious fanatic incapable of changing.  He is no better than many pro-lifers in that regard, and he will never change because that would keep him out of heaven, I guess??  

You tell me why the guy cannot keep his religion to himself which a pro-choice position can easily allow?  He is dangerous and the more Dems like this we support, the deeper the hole we dig ourselves in the long run!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:04:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't advocate we support more Dems like Casey (none / 0)

I do strongly suggest that a thin Majority of GOP extremists can do a lot of damage. A thin majority of Democrats  is more likely to protet women's privacy, etc. If 1 Casey in the Senate is the cost of that majority so be it. Its better than the alternative.

If 200,000 or so Nader voters in Florida hadn't thought there was no difference in Al Gore and Bush, I doubt we would be having this discussion. But it is, what it is.

Again, I wish there had been an alternative in Pennslyvania, but we are stuck with this problem.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Casey (none / 0)

If 200,000 or so Nader voters in Florida hadn't thought there was no difference in Al Gore and Bush, I doubt we would be having this discussion. But it is, what it is.

This is irrelevant to the discussion in which you are presently engaged.  Moreover, you cannot blame the Green Party for every strategic error the Democratic Party.  A congealed, worn, trite, vacuous talking point, these words also fail to address the problem you desire to address.  


by illinois062006 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No it is not irrelevant (none / 0)

But given your general inability to clearly and concisely, I'm not surprised you don't see the connection. When you learn to write clearly and concisely, you will learn to focus. Eventually you will learn the art of comparison and contrast.

Did you get that copy of Strunk and White yet?


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:47:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No it is not irrelevant (none / 0)

Thank you for resorting to an irrelevant and unfounded ad hominem attack.  


by illinois062006 on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 02:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Long term blame? (none / 0)

I don't know if this is too late for you to read, but I think long term strategic plans are critical here. You pin all your hopes on a short term victory even against your principles (look at all the apologies you are giving us PA voters!).  Now what I say next you may not like, but I think when women's reproductive, religious and privacy freedoms are finally gone, there will be such an awakening that conservative theocratic politicians will become a dirty word.  When that happens, I want a clear path to repubs to be the cause, so if Rick Santorum is in power when the freedoms go down, that will help asign blame. Now what I am afraid of and arguing against is that if these feedoms go down because we allow pro-life dems in the mix, we may not benefit in the long run because the angry majority may well blame us as well and rightfully so!. Then what?


by NG on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 09:25:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: THINK ABOUT THIS (none / 0)

Bush got elected twice largely by avoiding the abortion debate.  His handlers (Pat Robertson, among others) demanded a tiny incremental approach to the abortion topic.  Get into office, make small changes and elect judges.  Why can't Democrats take the same tact?  Downplay abortion completely, thereby taking away Republicans' second favorite complaint, win the election then make small changes.  There is so many more winning topics to take Republicans to the rug on than abortion.


by Faustic on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 02:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ben Nelson (none / 0)

I know the man is loved in Nebraska, but numbers like that are mind-blowing.  Who knows - those numbers hold and Nelson might even have coat-tails.  Of course, I complained about Chris' taking this race for granted earlier in the day.  It's a fine line between jubilation and heart-break for Nebraska Democrats - forgive my being a little bit skittish.


by Skylewalker on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 05:58:02 PM EST

Re: Ben Nelson (none / 0)

Ben Nelson will crush any opponent.

There is no doubt about this.

I wonder why anybody would even try and run against him.

I've actually been surprised that he wasn't the most popular Senator in previous polls. He's more popular among Republicans than Hagel. It's probably because of his pro-war postion and refusal to criticize the President. You should see his ads.

The woman running for congress here in the first district in Nebraska was his Lt. Governor. coattails is right.

phat


by phatass on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 12:47:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ben Nelson (none / 0)

Oh jeez, I forgot.

Here's my ActBlue page for Nebraska Democrats.

http://www.actblue.com/page/phat

Maxine Moul is in very good shape to beat Jeff Fortenberry.

Please give to her campaign.

I realize I'm not talking up the other candidate. Scott Kleeb and Jim Esch. But Moul is running to be my Congresswoman, so I have a bit of a bias.

Give to all of them, if you wish.

phat


by phatass on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 12:54:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Arizona (3.00 / 1)

Given Kyl's numbers, conservative record, and Pederson's fundraising capabilities, this race should be closer than it is. Get a move on it Jim! Its a red state, but this is a blue year... I believe Bush's approval rating in AZ according to SUSA is in the low 40s. This is a winnable race.


by AC4508 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 06:08:23 PM EST

Re: Arizona (none / 0)

The problem with this is that Pederson inflated his own numbers by dumping $2M into the race.  That's to cover up his own poor fundraising this quarter.

I think these numbers are not nearly so good for him as others seem to suggest.


ProgressiveHistorians: History For Our Future
by Nonpartisan on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Arizona (3.00 / 1)

The numbers point to the fact that Kyl is very vulnerable, but not that Pederson is the one to take advantage of that weakness.  What does it say about the Arizona Democratic Party that the head of the party can't raise money?


by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 11:38:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Arizona (none / 0)

Being an Arizonan, I've seen Pederson's ads.  You can't even tell he's a Democrat in the ads.  Must be part of a very sophisticated campaign.  If the electorate doesn't know your party, you stand a chance of winning.  Republicans might accidentally vote for you!  Not a tactic I'd recommend.  Pederson needs to fire his advertising exec because he hasn't made apparent stands or converts on TV.


by Faustic on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Woo hoo!!  It's good to see Ensign's numbers below 50%.  It was getting hard to believe that they could be much higher, especially considering how strongly Nevada dislikes Bush (latest SUSA: 34% approval/65% disapproval).

Sarah


by Sarah R Carter on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 06:14:13 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

Re Santorum, the April Q-poll had him at 44-40 - not great territory, but much better than SUSA's results.

His faves were at 32-32-18, however.


by PantherDem on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 07:10:02 PM EST

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (none / 0)

I still don't understand what's wrong with Frank Lautenberg's numbers. Could it be that he's not running for reelection and thus not campaigning or not doing much of anything like Paul Sarbanes and Mark Dayton?


by rafadex on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 07:44:28 PM EST

Here's why, Chris ... (3.00 / 1)

Not saying I couldn't be wrong, but this routine about Casey being the 'big vote getter' is an example of stats being misleading.  No one cares about state treasurer or auditor or whatever the hell he was ... and I've lived in suburban Philly for 20 years.  It's like Catherine Baker Knoll -- she gets a lot of votes, and in a competitive high-profile race, she would get slaughtered because she's a worse mope than Casey, if such a thing is possible.  Refer to Casey's primary run against Rendell for governor.  And also remember how many goobers around this state wil pile into their church vans on election day to save the unborn babies.  Casey's position won't mean anything to these people; they are GOP to the bone.  Hoping I'm wrong.


by tuffie on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:10:10 PM EST

Re: Here's why, Chris ... (none / 0)

I strongly agree, btw, had put this below post in the wrong section.

But please, tell me more theories on why the most popular person in the state is going to lose to the least popular person in the state

The reason is that voters know a lawmaker from an Auditor General or a Treasurer. Casey can have his religiously intolerant views and can still do a great job in the above agencies which do not deal in social lawmaking. However, many if not most voters know that a US Senator or a Governor are heavily involved in lawmaking, and when Casey ran against pro-choice Rendell, he lost!!!!!  

Pro-choice repubs are not going to abandon Santorum for Casey, and when Casey's conservative morality is highlighted by Santorum, Santorum will win all Repubs while real religiously tolerant progressives may well not vote at all. Hey, the dislike for Casey's anti-women freedom stance is very real, and Democracts hide their head in the sand at their peril.


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:25:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's why, Chris ... (none / 0)

Yeah, also realize that Rendell revolutionized Pennsylvanian Politics with his Metro Philidelphia turnout, making Casey's base of Pittsburg relatively worthless.

Add Casey's backing of the Pittsburg Steel area with Rendell's Philidelphia cottails, and we've got a sure winner here.


by KainIIIC on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

if Casey wins and women's reproductive-privacy-religious tolerance rights go south!  Then what??


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (3.00 / 1)

Then we will have replaced one anti-choice Senator with another anti-choice Senator.  However, if we take control of the Senate with Casey's help none of this anti-choice legislation will ever see the light of day.

By helping us take the Senate, Casey will have done more to help abortion rights than Chafee, Snowe, or Specter ever did.


by Skaje on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (3.00 / 1)

This is the line I am hearing, and if PA was a red, red state, then I would buy the trade off you mention.  However, PA should be able to produce a progressive pro-choice senator if there is a big GOTV effort because Rendell, Spectre and Ridge are all pro-choice.

If we take the easy short term road and give in to the dark side in a place like PA, I fear we will still lose these freedoms and then have no other party to blame.  I cannot be a part of that which I clearly see coming if we back the likes of young Casey!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:17:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

Exactly.  In a state that elects pro-choice Republicans we somehow can't run a pro-choice Democrat?  This seat should be an easy enough pick-up that we can be a little more picky about who we run.

As for the "get the majority first, pull it to the left" later argument; Casey would be a very difficult to challenge in a primary six or 12 years from now.  Why not elect someone more palatable now?


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

When exactly was the last time Pennsylvania elected a progressive democratic senator to a full term? If I recall correctly, Pennsylvania has never elected a pro-choice democratic senator to a full term.


by JRyan on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

But since Arlen Spectre is pro-choice, then the reason must not be the candidate's position on reproductive freedoms!  Why then are we supporting Casey if he cannot win on whatever the other issues are since we must agree that pro-life is not the key?


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yeah, Specter is pro-choice... (3.00 / 1)

until Bush scowls at him, then his spine shrivels up and he shepherds Roberts/Alito through the Judiciary Committee.


by johnny longtorso on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (3.00 / 1)

First, as someone pointed out, if you think Specter is really pro-choice, you need to look at him again. Specter's electoral formula is also different from the kind democrats need to win. I would also point out that even those republicans ideologically opposed to him still go out and vote for him in the general, as you have indicated you will not do for Casey.


by JRyan on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:51:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

If Pennsylvania is so damned Blue, then why is Santorum in the Senate in the first place?  And why has he been elected all four times that he's run in Pennsylvania (House twice, Senate twice)?  Did people just now discover that he's a whack job?  Did PA become THAT much different since 2000?  I have no trouble believing that it's changed into a state that should solidly be able to elect Dems, but I don't see how it's suddenly become Massachusetts.


by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 11:44:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

GOTV efforts along with a sizeable tolerance for pro-choice as noted by the positions of Rendell, Ridge and Spectre!


by NG on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

"tolerance for pro-choice" is a far cry from not being able to win unless you're pro-choice


by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 04:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

Where are you going??  

My point is that if this state can elect a fiscal liberal at all, then it can elect a fiscal liberal that is also a social liberal!  Why not get what progressives, as I see them, really want where we can. Why give up on PA as a total package??  That is the lesson from Ridge, Rendell and Spectre being pro-choice.  Now what again does young Casey then really offer true liberals in this state?


by NG on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:09:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

A Democratic Senate.

Ask yourself this: Who's better for the country as a Senator, Lincoln Chaffee (pro-choice Republican) or Harry Reid (pro-life Democrat).  If you were choosing between the two, is choice really going to be the determining factor?

Of course I'd love a raging liberal, but even aside from whether PA voters are willing to vote for a pro-choicer (I presume they are), I've really not seen much from the other Dem options to make me think that they would be viable candidates anyhow.  What Casey has that no other Dem in the race has- name recognition, political connections and experience, a positive record of serving Pennsylvanians effectively and competently- is why the abortion issue isn't a dealbreaker.  Is Pennachio a great guy? Of course. He'd be a good Senator.  But I'm not willing to use this as a warmup lesson in how to run a campaign for him.  Arlen Specter is 76 years old this year and had to contend with Hodgkins Disease. He won't be around forever.  Grab that seat in a few more years.


by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

The establishment steamroller, including your ideas of Harry reid, are going to alienate zillions of women soon.  America is a passive agressive nation in many respects, and I see women's reproductive, privacy, and religious tolerance freedoms being stepped on by the right wing and the Casey's and Reids until the passive agressive giant explodes. I think electing social conservative dems will not place the party for good things when that happens.

I am sick and tired of you so-called establishment types trying to trivialize what may be the centerstone of human freedoms, those that I have mentioned above.  I do not wish to live in a country that goes back to the dark ages on such ideas!


by NG on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I sure will not feel like a winner (none / 0)

With a Republican Majority, abortion legislation gets voted on. With a Democratic Majority, abortion legislation does not get voted on.  Democrats with a clear path to victory get my support.


by Lucas O'Connor on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 08:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Festering ignorance (none / 0)

Do you know what usually happens when you ignore a festering sore for too long???

This latent (and lately not so latent) religious intolerance rearing its ugly head in America is a cancer, and if we keep ignoring it, it will kill us as a functional, secular society


by NG on Sat Apr 22, 2006 at 10:27:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's why, Chris ... (none / 0)

So a bunch of goobers are going to pile into their vans to save the unborn babies from a pro-life candidate. Okey dokey.


by zt155 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 08:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 1)

So Casey can beat the most wingnutty senator in the nation.  Big whoop.  Santorum is about as popular as ketchup flavored ice cream.  A trained poodle could beat him at this point.

We're running a primary challenge against Lieberman, but we're supposed to line up in support of somebody even more conservative in PA for a seat that should be an easy pick-up.  Why?  This isn't Nebraska.  I understand he's a popular politician, but isn't there anyone else credible?  Are there really no progressives in the whole state that could beat Senator Man-on-dog?

The "he'll be a vote for majority leader Reid" arguement is bullshit, because a) so would any other Democrat we run, and b) so is Joe Lieberman.

We've got a Democratic leaning state with a massively unpopular incumbent, yet it's unreasonable to want to fill that seat with a progressive.  I guess I just don't understand.


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:33:48 PM EST

Absolutely, friggin amen to this post! (none / 0)


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Absolutely, friggin amen to this post! (none / 0)

PA ain't that blue.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (none / 0)

PA ain't that blue.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 09:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (none / 0)

Hey, I'm not asking for an uber-liberal.  I'm not even uber-liberal myself.  I'm just saying, it's not necessary to run a conservative to beat someone as unpopular as Santorum.  A moderate would be fine by me.  PA is a pro-choice state that elects pro-choice Republicans.  I cannot believe that it's impossible to win in PA with a pro-choice Democrat when the incumbent is the most unpopular Senator in the nation.  It's a totally absurd notion.


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 1)

For comparison, Pennsylvania is the most pro-life so-called "blue-state" in this country. It is more pro-life than Nevada, Colorado, Florida, ALASKA, WYOMING, Virginia, New Mexico, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, MONTANA, my homestate of TEXAS, SOUTH CAROLINA and GEORGIA.

14 "Red-states" that are more pro-choice than Pennsylvania yet a majority of their senators are pro-life, including Nevada where both of its senators are pro-life despite being 64% Pro-choice.

If in ANY state a pro-life democrat makes sense, it is ABSOLUTELY Pennsylvania as they are credded with being a "Pro-life State" (although that's not exactly accurate.

What ever happened to those calls about a "Big Tent" party?

What about the Democratic party caring about labor and economic issues over frivolous social issues that plague the political process?

If this senate race was between Casey and Arlen Spector, who would you vote for?
If the answer was Spector, then I consider you pathetic.


by KainIIIC on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:29:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is what is pathetic (1.00 / 1)

What about the Democratic party caring about labor and economic issues over frivolous social issues that plague the political process?

It is called important, no vital principle support!  If you are calling frivolous reproductive feedom issues, privacy issues, and religious tolerance issues, then you are not in my party, pathetic or not!


by NG on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:34:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is what is pathetic (none / 0)

This is interesting - coming from someone who says they would not vote for a candidate of a party based on single-issues.


by KainIIIC on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 01:16:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (none / 0)

Frivolous?  FRIVOLOUS?  Womens lives are at stake.

This isn't some narrow corner issue like flag burning or the pledge of allegiance.  This is about the government usurping control over peoples bodies and their personal lives all to please their troglodyte contituents and/or their magical sky fairy.

Again, I ask, if Republicans run pro-choice candidates to win statewide office in PA, why doesn't it make sense for Democrats to run a pro-choice candidate against an massively unpopular incumbent?


by fwiffo on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 10:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 2)

Social issues for centuries have always been used by demagogues to try to divide the nation for political purposes. Whether it was from Hitler and the Jews, from the KKK/'States Rights' and blacks, from the Gay Marriage Amendments to Nativism, they have all been wedge issues to try to divide the people for political gain. Yes, this is includes the Abortion issue as well. Which is, by the way, something that is not decided by the Senate, but by the Supreme court.

So yes, I call Social issues "Frivolous" because that's exactly what they are.

And while I am pro-choice, I can definetely see the side that the pro-lifers come from and I can definetely respect that position moreso than nearly any other "Social Issue".

But again, it is just one issue. Go ahead and cry yourself a river about these one or two issues, and until you offer yourself a credible alternative to Casey (which you haven't, neither of the other 2 in the race are credible).

And you begin to wonder how the Democrats managed to lose the Populists... I think I know now...


by KainIIIC on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 01:15:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 1)

I recoil when one places the pro-choice movement in the same asyndeton as the KKK, the blood and soil rhetoric of Nazism and the bankrupt notion of states' rights.  And if this is how advocates of the Big Tent desire to characterize women who will one day reclaim their rights to their own bodies from the men who for whatever reason, whether it be political, economic or social, want to control their anatomies, then I believe those men and wo(men) need to reevaluate the manner whereby they hope to attain their goals.  Resorting to such inapt comparisons not only reveals the desperation and weakness of the Big Tent advocates; it also reveals their lack of sophistication, tact and their complete misunderstanding of the history of social movements.


by illinois062006 on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 02:56:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (none / 0)

One should scrutinize this notion of the "Big Tent" before it becomes the new fundamentalism to which cynical party zealots will mindlessly and hopelessly adhere.


by illinois062006 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 1)

Realize that the "Big-tent" idea has always come into effect since the New Deal and was the only reason why we continue to be a credible party to the Republicans.

If you wish you could divide yourselves further by creating a smaller coalition, then we would need electoral reform. But oh wait, we first need to have that from big-tent parties!


by KainIIIC on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 01:18:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (none / 0)

You failed to address the concern.  The notion of this all encompassing tent that seems to be caving onto all of us is invoked in order to pacify those who have legitimate policy concerns.  Instead of invalidating those positions, perhaps one can see how the tent can be unzipped in order to allow new perspectives to enter and old, breathless voices to escape.  For if the tent can never be reshaped, then it will become a worn mold no one will desire to enter, lest one suffocate from the moldering stench pervading its stagnant and utterly asphyxiating atmosphere.


by illinois062006 on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 02:48:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, of Casey will win (3.00 / 1)

Despite having a Democratic voter registration advantage, Pennsylvania is a deeply purple state. Outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, you are in red America. Pennsylvania doesn't exactly have a strong record of sending liberal politicians to Washington. The last Democratic senator was Harris Wofford who won a special election in 1991 and was ousted in 1994 by Santorum. Before Wofford, the last Democrat was Joe Clark who left office in 1969. As someone who has lived on both sides of "The T" in Pennsylvania, this is not a blue state just because it delivers its electoral votes for Democrats in the last four presidential elections.

Furthermore, why must Casey's entire candidacy be staked on an abortion litmus test? Most people outside of Pennsylvania probably know very little of Casey. Upon hearing he is pro-life, you would think he is the worst thing for this party after you get done reading some of the comments here.

If you read his website you would realize that not only would he be a vote for a Democratic majority, that he would be a vote against Bush's social security plan, a vote against CAFTA, a vote for a higher minimum wage, a vote against drilling in ANWR, and a vote for fixing the ridiculous GOP Medicare prescription drug plan. After seeing the outrage against CAFTA here last summer, how can anybody explain to me that replacing Rick Santorum with Bob Casey is not a good thing?


by Matt42 on Thu Apr 20, 2006 at 11:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't disagree (none / 0)

So where is your more progressive candidate?

What are your choices? Lamont stepped up to the plate. Who is the PA Lamont?

If you know someone who can and will run... I'm all for it, may the best candidate win.

Otherwise its just crying in your beer that you don't have a Lamont in PA, but what does that get you?  Nowhere.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 07:40:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't disagree (none / 0)

Chuck Pennacchio.  


by eRobin on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 11:41:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't disagree (none / 0)

I thought he withdrew.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I thought wrong (none / 0)

Well shut my mouth. I was wrong. Thank you for clarifying.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There's no one else (none / 0)

Pennachio and Sandals are both broke, and have zero name recognition.  They are not serious candidates any more than you or I would be.

Santorum is massively unpopular now, but he was not when recruiting began last year.  Back when Joe Hoeffel and Barbara Hafer were in the running, Santorum was one of the richest incumbents, had ok approval ratings, and would have been tough to unseat in a fairly evenly divided state.  The DSCC convinced Casey Jr. to run because their polling showed him trouncing Santorum, and convinced Hoeffel and Hafer to get out because they weren't sure Casey would win the primary (as the pro-choice Hoeffel and Hafer would make note of Casey's anti-choice views).

People were divided on whether that was a good thing.  We got the strongest possible candidate (such that we were leading a two-term incumbent by double digits!), but at this point, even Hoeffel or Hafer could beat Casey Jr.  It's too late for that, unfortuantely.


by Skaje on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll (3.00 / 1)

Interesting that John McCain is 66-29 with pro-choicers and an 11 point lower 61-35 with pro-lifers.


by McClassy on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 12:17:42 AM EST

Very interesting (3.00 / 1)

considering that McCain consistently scores 0% from NARAL and has always been in favor of a nationwide abortion ban.

When will people (Democrats especially) realize that McCain is no moderate?


by Skaje on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 03:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Split Delegation Statistics (none / 0)

Another interesting (potentially foreshadowing?) piece of information from the SUSA poll:

Of the 13* states with split delegations, i.e. one Dem and one Republican, the Democrat has a larger net approval than the Republican in TEN states. And the average margin in net approval for all 13 states is +9.2 for the Democrat.
* not including Vermont

Here are the numbers (state and net approval advantage for the Democrat):

CO +16
FL +15
IN +2
IA -11
LA -27
MN -5
MT +38
NE +32
NV +1
NM +1
OR +6
RI +31
SD +20

A sign of things to come in November? Might be interesting to compare these stats with numbers from earlier polls.


by jimstack on Fri Apr 21, 2006 at 12:41:35 AM EST

Re: Split Delegation Statistics (none / 0)

I wonder if we should set Louisiana aside.  Landrieu's base, or southeast Louisiana, is impossible to poll.  Because SurveyUSA probably relies on landlines, I doubt they are able to contact those who are relying on their mobiles during this transitional period.  And most of New Orleans does not yet have landline service.  Those wh