Overall:
As in February, I currently forecast a three to five seat gain for Democrats.
Thirty-second analysis: In the Senate, the situation is stagnating. I continue to forecast a three to five seat gain for Democrats, but that is not quite as solid as it was two months ago. Further, the chances of Democrats putting more seats into the "already competitive" category are even lower than they were in February. Since my last forecast, there have been almost no changes. Only one race remains in the "likely pickup" category, Pennsylvania. Six races remain in the "already competitive" category. Four of these are strong Democratic challenges (MO, MT, OH and RI), and two are strong Republican challenges (MN, NJ). The only changes I have made at all come from downgrading two races out of the "potentially competitive" category (VA, MI) and into the "keep an eye out" category. I also downgraded one race, Florida, from "keep an eye out" to "off the board."
You can see
money totals here. Polling can be found at
Rasmussen,
Zogby,
Survey USA, and
Polling Report. Details on individuals campaigns can be found in the extended entry.
Likely Pickups
Democrats: Pennsylvania: A little tighter than it was, but any challenger at 50% is still a stone-cold lock. Any incumbent at 40% with a higher name ID than his opponent is dead meat. Importantly, this race will force Santorum to dump his entire $9M warchest, and force the NRSC into a tough choice: abandon Pennsylvania, or spend even more resources defending the most endangered incumbent Senator in a decade. Since they are already behind on Cash on hand, this will not be an easy to choice make.
Oh, and the NOW poll on the race is ridiculous. Campaigns and advocacy groups run polls like this all the time. Asking the electorate how it would vote if its impression of a candidate is exactly what the campaign or advocacy group would like the electorate's impression to be of that candidate is one of the best ways for partisans or someone with an agenda to distort the progress of any race. You mean candidate x does a lot better when people hear what a wonderful person candidate x is, and what a loser his opponent is? There is a stunner. The only valid trial heats ask a person's name and party, and that is it. I would have no difficulty constructing a poll question that would show Casey up 35 points in this race, or one that would show Santorum 25 points ahead. Neither would any other pollster. If you construct polls to make the electorate out to what you want to believe it is, rather than what it really is, you can get them to say whatever you want.
Republicans: None
Already Competitive
Democrats: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island
Notes: You know about all of these races. Toss-ups all. I have no new analysis to add to these campaigns,
except to agree with Kos that the leadership of the Sierra Club are idiots. I love that we have NARAL and he Sierra Club endorsing Republicans in Rhode Isalnd, and unions working for third-party candidates in Illinois. The progressive movement rocks.
Republicans: Minnesota, New Jersey
Notes: It seems that every week has a poll showing a new leader in New Jersey. However, considering that the large number of undecideds in this solid-blue state almost certainly lean fairly strong for Democrats, and that Menendez has three times the money of Kean, this is certainly not a "likely pickup" for Republicans.
Minnesota is hardening into this category. Kennedy has more money than Klobouchar, and I still believe that Wetterling dropping out of the primary will weaken Klobouchar as a candidate. Klobouchar still has the edge, but with close polls, close money, this open seat race in a lean-Dem state looks to remain competitive for a long time. Oh, and look out for Thune bloggers 2.0 in this campaign as well.
Potentially Competitive
Democrats: Tennessee: Ford has some of the ingredients here, but he still trials Corker in money and can't break out of the low forties in any poll. I also have real worries about the ability of any African-American to win statewide in the South. The research on this front is not encouraging. Still, Ford is clearly not finished. Let's see if being the least loyal Democrat in a safe Democratic district will pay off for him.
Republicans: Maryland, Washington
Notes: In Maryland, Steele is well behind Cardin in the polls. In fact, he is so far behind, and this state is so blue, that I would drop this race down a tier if Cardin was a lock for the nomination. However, he is nowhere near a lock of the nomination. Mfume, who narrowly leads Steele in polls and is way behind Steele in terms of money, is tied with Cardin in two of the last three polls on the Democratic primary (the third polls shows Cardin up 8%, just outside the MoE). Steele is running a pretty crappy campaign, but he does have some money (about two-thirds of Cardin's total). I expect this race to stay in this category for a long time, but it does have much more fluidity than just about every other race out there right now.
In Washington, Cantwell has six times McGavick's cash, but her polls have recently slipped form being just over 50% to being just under 50%. McGavick could also throw millions of his own money into this race, but he has yet to do so. Cantwell is the favorite here, but this one is not over.
Keep an eye out
Democrats: Arizona, Nevada, Virginia
Notes: I will probably get hit with some flames for dropping the Virginia Senate race down like this, but Allen has 7.18M in the bank, and Webb has $200K. Harris Miller has 398K. With Allen just over 50% in almost every poll, someone better explain to me how this is going to be competitive in such a red state. Right now, I just don't see it, although I would love for Allen to have to empty out his bank account.
In Arizona, Pederson is doing well in terms of fundraising, but Kyl has been at around 55% in recent polls. Aaarrgghhhh.
Nevada. This is only still on the board because of the wildly conflicting poll results. Mason Dixon has Ensign ahead with an unassailable 60-27 advantage. Zogby has the race potentially competitive, but only barely, at 52-37. Maybe I just can't bear to take this race off the board because I like Sarah Carter. It doesn't look good here.
Republicans: Connecticut, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin
- Connecticut could be interesting if Lieberman bolts the party, or if Lamont wins. Obviously, we will have to wait and see.
- In Michigan, Stabenow looks pretty darn good. She has mid-fifties favorables, six times the money of her nearest competitor, is over 50% in polls that have more than 12% of the state undecided, and Bush has a 32% approval rating in Michigan. Goodnight and goodluck, as far as I am concerned.
- Wisconsin remains on the board because Tommy Thompson has once again threatened to enter the race. Mostly, however, I bet he just doesn't want his indecision to be overshadowed by Brett Favre's.
- Nebraska: Well, there hasn't been any polling for long time, which is why this is still on the board. Nelson has more than four times the money of his nearest competitor and an approval rating over 65%. Still, this is a very red state, so I'd like to see some polling before I remove it from the board.
Off the Board:
Republicans: Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Democrats: California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, New Mexico, North Dakota, West Virginia
Independents: Vermont
