MyDD :: Late Night CA-50 Thread

Late Night CA-50 Thread

by Chris Bowers, Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:13:17 AM EST

I don't think I have the stamina for this one gang. Currently, with 296 of 445 precincts reporting, Busby has 43.28% of the vote, while Bilbray has 15.32%, and Roach has 14.31%. You can continue to follow the returns either here or here, but I am not going to post any more updates.

Simply put, Busby is in the driver's seat. Her vote totals will continue to rise as more precincts report. Even now, she is nearly tripling her closest competitor, and will need only around 15% of the "other" vote to win in June, while Brian Bilbray looks like he will need nearly 85%.

Better yet, come June, Busby will be facing far less well-financed competition. The fourteen Republicans in this race have combined to spend more than five million dollars so far. You read that correctly--the fourteen Republicans in this election have spent more than five million dollars, or five times what Busby spent. However, Busby's likely June opponent, Brian Bilbray, is not self-financing, and is currently way behind Busby in the money race and in terms of cash on hand.

This is a district with a Republican performance of around 56%, but even giving voters fourteen different Republicans options and throwing $5M into the race has only secured Republicans 53% of the vote, and dropping. They are only going to be able to give voters one option in June, and they will be able to spend less than one million on the race then. And yet they still need to cobble together 85% of the "other" vote for Bilbray, who isn't especially liked among local conservative activists. Gooooood luck.

Busby is in command in this district, which is solid red. Or rather, it was solid red, but like a lot of districts nationwide, that isn't the case anymore. I like our chances in June. I don't know if we will pass the 44% mark that I thought would pretty much sow this one up, but we still might. Either way, as we saw last November, victory is now within sight.

Update: OK, I lied about going to bed. Currently, Busby is at 43.89%, with 418 of 445 precinct in. Looks like Bilbray will "win." Combined, the 14 Republicans have dropped below 53%. Good luck holding 94% of that coalition together with 10% of the money, only one canddiate, a social conservative activist base that doesn't like the nominee, and when you start with only 15.13%.

Update 2: Busby rises to 43.97% with 430 of 445 precincts in. The non-Republican vote rises to 47.34%. Bilbray is ahead of Roach by about 900 votes. Turnout looks to be around 130K.

Tags: Election results, CA-50 (all tags)

Permalink :: 41 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

The Democratic total in the district is higher than Busby's total, due to the presence of Chris Young. Right now, the combined Dem vote is 44.68%. That's not much of a margin of error for Bilbray, should he indeed be the Republican candidate.

by NorthStarPolitics on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:22:14 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

"Not much of a margin of error"...?

Forgive me for being realistic, but it seems to me that we're talking about primary results that work out to Republicans - 55.32%, Democrats - 44.68%. That's only a sliver of a percent away from the 56%-44% margin that generally gets described as a "landslide victory."

Sorry, but I see these results as a clear indication that CA-50 remains a solid Republican district. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks to me like it's over for our chances of picking up another seat there.

by JDWalley on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:27:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

I agree with JDWalley,

I think we might be overtly optimistic here. Coming in first is all good and well, but that doesn't mean anything if there reason we are in first is because the Republicans split their vote 15 ways.

The Democrat here only got the Democratic vote. But when the general comes, if the Republicans unite and vote for its candidate then we can easily lose this election.

by JackBourassa on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 08:44:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Look at the fractures (none / 0)

The Evangelicals wanted Kaloogian. They're not going to get him. That in itself may be enough to make them stay home in June.

Meanwhile, Busby's got more $ in her kitty than Bilbray or Roach have in either of theirs -- she can hit the ground running whereas they're going to have at least a week, maybe two, before they can get any cash out of the NRCC.

by Phoenix Woman on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:24:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Night, and Thanks (none / 0)

Your observations about this race have been helpful to me. I only have time to dip in now and then but know that this is the place to dip on an election night. Thanks.

by Arthurkc on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:24:02 AM EST

Re: Good Night, and Thanks (none / 0)

The problem that I see with this race and the Nov mid-terms is turnout. With the DC Dems and their consultants in charge as usual they are not doing anything to energize the base. And this is seen in the lack of enthusiasm in the base and not enough folks willing to come out and vote.

I continue to believe that this generic ballot advantage for the Dems will vaporize the minute a real candidates name is attached. And as we have seen the electorate is basically split so it will all come down to who can get their base energized enough to make the difference. The Dems don't even try to get their base all riled up so I find it hard to see how they could win a majority in either the House or Senate.

by ab initio on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:47:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good Night, and Thanks (none / 0)

The problem is turnout, but it seems to me that the "base", such as it is given the demographics of this district, was pretty fired up. The problem was the irregular voters, new voters, and moderate swing voters.

This is a district somewhat like Melissa Bean's district. It is not largely composed of the kind of progressive Dem activists that are ususally described as "the base" and that populate this blog and Daily Kos.

Busby does have a chance if she is well-funded and if either Roach or Kaloogian or both decide to enter the June primary for the full term that starts in 2007, thus complicating the message and turnout on the GOP side. (Or if one group stays home.) If gas goes to $3.00 a gallon again, and it is almost there now, given our high gas taxes, if the Iraq War gets worse and if there is more sabre rattling with Iran and rising interest rates (all of which are likely), the greater interest on the Dem side in the primary might push her over the top.

by Mimikatz on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:49:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good Night, and Thanks (none / 0)

No, the base IS fired up. But 44% is all the base there is in this district. It's precisely Democratic performance. Busby never had a chance -- and still doesn't -- unless and until she wins some Republican votes. Looks like it hasn't happened yet, but it still might if the losing Repub candidates don't fall in behind Bilbray.

by ColoDem on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:57:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

... kool aid. The "other" vote as you put it isn't composed of independents, but rather Republicans of different hues. I don't find it to be unreasonable that Bilbray gets 85% of the mostly Republican vote. I know people worked their butts of for this campaign and I hate to rain on their parade, but this result is a failure. Busby performed as well as Kerry did in this district even though she is running in a more favorable environment for Democrats and against a pack of clowns. I'm not laying blame at anyone's feet, just saying that this is a disappointing result. We're gonna have to cool off all the 'taking the House back talk' until we see an election where a Democrat surpasses previous results.

by crazymoloch on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:26:26 AM EST

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

She actually is doing better than Kerry when you add the votes the other Dem got. But I agree, I'm really confused as to how a majority vote for Republican canidates is a win and I have a lot of trouble imagining who is going to switch parties and vote for Busby.

I guess if 5% of Republicans stay home in June there's a chance...maybe they'll be too busy guarding the border?

by js noble on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:32:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

The results are not yet in. Patience is a virtue.

by illinois062006 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Hackett got about 7% of the overall vote in June primary for OH-02.

Not eveyr person who voting for a Republican here will end up voting for the Republican nominee.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:36:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Mary Landrieu managed to trasform 46% to 52% in that famous 2002 runoff with Suzanne Haik Terrell, and she was facing the entire Republican Party. We should wait to see Bugsby's total.

by illinois062006 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:38:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Exactly. The winner of a primary does not necessarily receive the votes for every other candidate in said primary. Quite a few always bleed over to the other side.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:42:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Mary Landrieu found an obscure Mexican newspaper article about the Bush admin planning to allow cheap sugar imports.

And fired people up.

On the bright side, when the Dems once again stumble to defeat in November, perhaps the party will rethink the cynical bloodless strategies of Schumer and Emmanuel.

Wacks self over head with 2x4....I know, what am I thinking.....

by Taylor26 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:34:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Hackett actually got about 12% of the June primary vote, but the basic point still stands. the diea that if Busby didn't get 50% now she won;t get it in June is utterly simplistic election aanlysis.

Head to head trial heats have her ahead of both Roach and Bilbray, though within the margin for error. Now let's see how the winner does without $5M to spend.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:40:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

We are yet to see how the two campaigns will compare and contrast the two candidates after this election. I desire to see the results tonight, and I caution against making predictions about this race until we see the two campaigns develop in the next few weeks.

by illinois062006 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:43:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

Well, I won't make a prediction.

But I will say that I'm hoping to see some significant anti-lobbyist venom directed at Bilbray to depress his numbers. 2006 should NOT be the year of the lobbyist.

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:49:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

I imagine Busby's campaign will formulate a strategy to pull votes away from Bilbray. Because the run-off will only comprise the top candidates of each party, the dynamics will be radically different from tonight's election.

by illinois062006 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:51:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

She actually is doing better than Kerry when you add the votes the other Dem got.

But only marginally so.

Given Bush's dive in the polls, plus the scandal surrounding the previous Republican incumbent, we should have done substantially better than Kerry.

This should serve as a sobering realization that "watching the Republicans self-destruct" is not a sufficient campaign strategy for our party. So far, it really does seem that, although the Republicans may be losing support, we haven't even capitalized on it in the slightest. Which doesn't bode well for November.

by JDWalley on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:40:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You're assuming that... (none / 0)

...every Republican who voted in the primary will automatically leap to Bilbray or Roach or whoever.

You forget the fact that the GOP in CA-50 is fractured, big-time. There's a reason that there were three major GOP (and a few minor GOP) candidates in the primary: Their factions all hate each other. The evangelicals had lined up behind Kaloogian, but he's now gone.

by Phoenix Woman on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:28:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

30% of the "other" vote is indeed Democrats and Independents.

As far as surpassing previous results, Busby got 36.5% here in 2004. And like I said, good luck seeing Bilbray rise from 15% to 51%.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:33:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I must be drinking the wrong... (none / 0)

I think you're way off on this one. Donna Frye got a near-identical 43.2% in last year's July special election to Jerry Sanders' 27% and he won 54/46 in November. Not saying it's impossible, just saying that writing off Bilbray is a little crazy.

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 01:11:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

For cripes sake guys. She's running against 17 other candidates. In my opinion getting 40+% of the vote is no small task. Yeah I would have loved to have seen her get the 50+%. Wouldn't every dem in the country. She's running in a heavily R district. Help her with the June election and hopefully we will send a seismic wave through the country.

by pax on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 02:55:52 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

Looks lik exactly 43.89 with 6% of precients remaining. Roach kept it ridiculously close. I think Roach voters could either stay home or vote Busby in some level because he ran against Washington almost as much as she did.

by Democraticavenger on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:17:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

I wonder if there was any polling done indicating the "second choice" of likely voters. I wonder if any of these people who voted for marginal Republicans had Busby as a second choice, or just despised Bilbray that much that they'd vote Busby or stay home.

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

She's running against 17 other candidates.

No, she's running against ONE other Democrat. Fifteen Republicans are splitting the 55%+ majority of the vote that went to their party.

This is one of the most conservative Republican areas in the country. If you think a significant percentage of that 55% Republican base, no matter the level of their distrust of Bilbray, is going to cross over and vote for a "Democratic liberal," you're living in Cloud-Cuckoo-Land.

by JDWalley on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:35:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (3.00 / 1)

Maybe--but the intraparty warfare might cause some to stay at home. And Westly & Angelides on the ballot will give Democrats more reason to turn out.

Sometimes ya gotta think positive.

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 03:40:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

Again, you're assuming that Bilbray will magically leap from 15% now to 51% in June. That's one hell of an assumption.

There's a reason there were three major and several minor GOP candidates splitting the CA-50 vote: The GOP in that area is badly fractured, and the major factions hate each other's guts. I'd be much more worried if there had been only two major GOP candidates and no fringies.

by Phoenix Woman on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:31:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good job, Chris (none / 0)

keep it up.

Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers

by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 04:02:02 AM EST

my take (3.00 / 1)

I have some familiarity with this district and I think that the whole idea that reading polls so closely and treating it like its a sports event is what in fact makes districts play so well into republican hands.

Any race, anywhere has the opportunity to be a real forum for the issues - any candidate can turn into Dean.

Like it or not, Dean's race was better for the country than anything this sort of masturbatory activity will ever accomplish: he made us talk about issues well in advance of their zenith.

Anyone who supported Dean holds their head up now as a proud and strong pioneer - they are people who saw the light. People who follow busby stand for nothing as best as I can tell. The whole thing stinks. Its all about advertising. Who gets the biggest market share. Who buys the latest box of q tips. Who's going to take the market? 3 points here. Two points there.

This lays out exactly like a game of energy trading, enron style. Give them three points, but hold off and maybe the price will go up.

The race seems to be colorless and unsatisfying to me on a deep level: this was a district in which the republican betrayed his country.

The best we can seem to do is to cheer on the horses at the race. Sigh...

For my money, an ounce of revolution is worth a pound of polls.

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 06:19:39 AM EST

Re: my take (none / 0)

Turner,

You amaze me. It seems I always half agree with you.

Politics is about winning (or losing) always has and always will. The issues may have gotten lost in the process. But usually one or two big issues rise to the top and frame debates. This year, like it or not, we are going to run on the issue of "anything but republican." It may not blow your dress up but it may be a winner.

Essentially Dean ran on the War and integrity in standing up to Bush and speaking truth to power. He didn't go much deeper than that. There wasn't a debate on great social issues and quite frankly his Vermont policies were downright centerist.

By the way, the rethugs have perfected this art of focusing on single issues with abortion, gay marriage, and other hot button issues. For them they just use it to get elected.

by aiko on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 08:52:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

If I understand correctly, the June runoff is combined with the regular primary.

Are there any interesting ballot issues or other candidacies in the June primary that are likely to boost either Republican or Democratic turnout?

by arenwin on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 08:36:59 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

A library improvement bond act and a tax on incomes of $400,000 for singles, $800,000 for couples, to pay for universal pre-schiool. Rob Reiner's latest. A very contested Dem primary for governor and some low-key contests in the minor constitutional offices.

by Mimikatz on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 09:57:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What The Hell (none / 0)

Has everyone forgot the mayoral election from last year that went down exactly like this?

Seat open because of a corrupt Republican.

Democrat with experience running and name recognition takes on a crowded field of Republicans and cruises in the first round.

Republicans come together behind their one candidate in the runoff and take it in a walk.

45ish percent going non-Republican is about where I saw this going in the first place and that's no small task in that district. Kos and others might be right about the base not being fired up, but let's also remember that a lot of the Democrats in this district are young people and minorities who are not the easiest folks to turn out for a special election unless there's free beer (Hmm, would that be legal? Free Beer for anyone with an I Voted sticker?). We still have a shot of course in June, there's no question about it. Dems are going to be turning out for the primary, but I really don't think that Republicans are going to just disappear into the night. Do they EVER do that?

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 10:24:27 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

chris, you are a bad junkie. What time did you crash this morning?

Booman Tribune.

by BooMan on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 10:54:35 AM EST

Why Busby can win on June 6 (none / 0)

1. A lot of Republicans will not be happy with Bilbray. He may win all of them that vote, but some of them may stay home.

2. Another reason why Reps may stay home: June 6 is also Primary Day, and there is no real Republican primary to vote in. Arnold is a shoo-in for the gubernatorial nomination, McClintock for Lieutenant Gov, Moutjoy for the Senate, etc. And since the main headline of the day will be the statewide primary and not this runoff, a lot of them will feel like it would be redundant and pointless to go vote. Democrats, on the other hand, have a lot of contested primaries: Angelides vs. Westly for Governor, Speier vs. Garamendi for Lieutenant Governor, etc. Hence, they will be more likely to turn out for Primary Day.

3. Remember that Busby only needs 6% more to win. Bilbray would need to more than triple his total. While some have compared this race to the San Diego mayoral race in which Jerry Sanders (R) doubled his total from 27% to 54% and Donna Frye (D) barely moved from 43% to 46% in the runoff, this is a much bigger gap still. Going from 44 to 50 is a much smaller climb than from 15 to 50.

4. Finally, the Republicans will be unmotivated and divided. Not only do they not have any significant primary battles to vote in on June 6, but as I said a LOT of them don't like Bilbray. According to polls, some will even vote for Busby. So will most Independents.

Bottom line: if Busby keeps running a "nonpartisan", "clean", "independent" campaign, and does just enough attacking of Bilbray - carpetbagger, lobbyist, etc. - she can win this thing. All the contested Democratic primaries can't hurt either. :)

My ActBlue page

by Ament Stone of California on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 11:17:00 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

This is a hopeful outcome for Democrats. However, there will have to be a strong campaign to put Busby over the top in this Red district. While a portion of the Republican vote is fluid, I would suggest the same is true for Busby voters. A certain percentage are probably Repubs who could return to the Repub fold with a successful negative campaign against Busby (& Repubs are awfully good at this).

Still, things look good at the moment. Chris, your usual excellent job.

by carter1 on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 11:26:10 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

There is some concern that Busby won't be able to reach the 50% mark, but one has to feel good about the fact that Dems are united behind her. Potentially 10,20,30% of supporters of the losing Republican candidates could stay home. Busby also has time to win over supporters of other candidates. If we work hard we do have a shot.

by BringtheFight on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 11:29:17 AM EST

Re: Late Night CA-50 Thread (none / 0)

Also, June 6 is Primary Day as well, and Democrats have a lot more contested primaries than Republicans in California this year, perhaps boosting Democratic turnout above GOP turnout.

Think about it - Democrats will be turning out for Angelides/Westly and Speier/Garamendi, so while they're at it they'll vote for Busby; but Republicans have no real primaries to vote in: Ahnoldt, McClintock, and Mountjoy are all shoo-ins for the nominations, so why would they vote?

My ActBlue page

by Ament Stone of California on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 11:44:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Too much analyzing for too little results (none / 0)

I have been following CA-50 very closely here and while I can understand everyone's anticipation about this November's Congressional elections, I just don't think you can make all that much out of a special primary election where less than 20% of the eligible voters show up.

To me it's like trying to read tea leaves. The sample is so small and district skewed so Republican that it cannot be even close to any of those that would be considered competitive in November and could have been affected by so many different things that I can't see how it could be a valid indication of any trends.

The other question - Why didn't the Dems show up to vote? - It just seems to me that in a district where the Dem vote never means anything anyway these people just kept doing what they always do, staying home because their vote wouldn't make a difference anyway. Sure, I know that a lot of money and effort was spent trying to convince them otherwise, but one shot at getting them out after a lifetime of staying home was a tough thing to do.

by Jersey Devil on Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 12:52:09 PM EST

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