NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine

Easily the greatest New Jersey-by-way-of-Texas blogger on the scene, Thurman Hart has an interesting post up at The American Prospect's Midterm Madness blog about The Washington Times wading into the Senate race between Sen. Bob Menendez and Tom Kean Jr here in New Jersey. As Thurman notes, the Times claims that Kean Jr "has been helped by an unlikely Republican ally" in the New Jersey media, "which has been running stinging editorials and news stories" against Sen. Menendez. That would be interesting, if it were true.

Yet a review of the top-circulating Jersey paper, the Star-Ledger, reveals no negative news articles about Mr. Menendez at all. Furthermore, the junior senator has not even been the topic of an editorial in the last two weeks. The same goes for the New York Times. In fact, quite the contrary; both newspapers have run a number of articles that are unfavorable to Kean, and those articles and editorials critical of Menendez cited by the Washington Times actually date back to before he was appointed senator.

The Times further reports that Kean, Jr. has enjoyed a "slight edge" in "most early polls." Yet the truth is that the polls have been fairly evenly split -- with the lead switching back and forth.

To take his critique of the Moonie Times story one step further, it's notable that the two polls they cite don't really support their pro-Kean Jr claims either. The first set of numbers they offer up is from a Quinnipiac University poll that gave Sen. Menendez a lead of 40% to 36%, with a 2.9% margin of error. Remind me again, Times, how this equates to "a virtual tie," as you claim? The other poll is from Strategic Vision, which has Kean Jr leading by 32% to 30%, and a 3% MOE.  This, of course, could pretty accurately be called "a virtual tie," but it seems more or less to be an outlier. The most recent polls -- Rasmussen, which gives Kean Jr the lead, and Zogby Interactive, which Menendez leads -- are also quite tight, but ought to be taken with a grain of salt as the former is an automated telephone poll and the latter is an internet poll of people who've expressly said they'd like to be polled. Most other polls, it should be noted, have been much kinder to Menendez.

My point here, as I believe was Thurman's, is not to spin the polls one way or the other. Rather, it's to point out that this is a classic Moonie Times smear disguised as news. Not really shocking, but still worth calling attention to. The rightist smear machine is already in full gear, working to shape conventional wisdom in every state of the union, no matter the reality on the ground. The anti-Menendez "stinging editorials and news stories" are simply a figment of the rightist imaginations of Tom Kean Jr and his smear artist allies at the Times.



Display:


Re: NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine (none / 0)

Now the smear machine has a new venue.

Campaigns & Elections magazine, the oldest political campaign magazine in the country, was recently acquired by a company with close ties to the pharmaceutical industry.  Political World Communications, a New Jersey corporation formed to manage C&E and other assets, named Jordan Lieberman as publisher.

Lieberman, a Republican political consultant, also runs the Publius Group, which operates the anonymous websites PoliticsNJ.com, PoliticsPA.com, and PoliticsNH.com.  Lieberman's partner in the Publius operation is a registered New Jersey lobbyist with major health care and insurance industry clients.

According to C&E's annual roster(2004) of the American Association of Political Consultants, Lieberman was employed by the Alexander Strategy Group, which was recently forced to close its doors because of its ties to disgraced Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff.


by NJprole on Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 10:15:44 AM EST

Re: NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine (none / 0)

Not to be overly nitpicky, but it's so important that everyone ALWAYS refer to him as Kean Jr.  The piece is good but slips once or twice.


by Lucas O'Connor on Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 12:06:13 PM EST

Re: NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine (none / 0)

Thing is, Kean Jr's poll numbers were weirdly high early on because voters thought he was his father. His numbers dropped as people realized it wasn't former Governor Tom Kean running for Senate, but his son, who really hasn't done much of anything in his relatively young, privileged life. Now officially for campaign purposes, he's gone the whole way with the confusion strategy, actually dropping the Junior. It's really lame. So long story short, I will never refer to Kean Jr as anything but Kean Jr, as he is, in fact, Kean Jr.


by Scott Shields on Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 04:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine (none / 0)

I know that YOU are on top of it, but not everyone is perfect on this yet, so I'm gonna mention it every time I notice it in the hopes that it winds its way into the conventional wisdom.


by Lucas O'Connor on Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 05:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NJ-Sen: Cranking Up The Rightist Smear Machine (none / 0)

The first set of numbers they offer up is from a Quinnipiac University poll that gave Sen. Menendez a lead of 40% to 36%, with a 2.9% margin of error. Remind me again, Times, how this equates to "a virtual tie," as you claim?

How it does is like this:

1) AFAICT, the MOE is the MOE of each individual candidate's numbers, not the MOE of the difference.

  1. The MOE of the difference, if the two candidates' numbers are independent (which they're not - I'll get to this next), is roughly sqrt(2)x(each candidate's MOE).  So with a 2.9% MOE, the MOE of the difference in this hypothetical situation would be just over 4%.
  2. The MOE of the difference is smaller if the two numbers being compared are positively correlated, and larger if they're negatively correlated.
  3. In a two-horse race, they're usually negatively correlated - if one candidate gains ground, the other has usually lost ground.

Conclusion: you'd expect the MOE of the difference to be bigger than sqrt(2)*(each candidate's MOE).  So yeah, it's a statistical tie.


by RT on Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 09:00:54 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.