Without any more ado, the district profile: the Eighth Congressional District includes all of Bucks County, a tiny finger of Montgomery County around Willow Grove, and parts of two Far Northeast wards in Philadelphia.  For maps of the district, see here and here.   Bucks County, in fact, provides the overwhelming number of votes in the district.

For more than a decade, PA-08 has reliably and consistently supported Democrats in national and statewide races:

*  Al Gore would have won the yet-to-be created district 51.4% to 46.3% (with Nader taking 2.4%);

* Al Gore won Bucks County by nearly 11,000 votes;

*  John Kerry won the District 51%-48%;

* John Kerry won Bucks County by 9,000 votes; and

* The District also voted for Bill Clinton, twice.

As I am sure that you also know, Pennsylvania is a hot bed of political activity this cycle with Governor Ed Rendell and most likely Bob Casey, Jr. on the top of the ticket (although Chuck Pennachio and Alan Sandals are staging spirited primary campaigns).  Both of these candidates have dominated in Southeastern Pennsylvania, but Bucks County in particular:

* In Casey's 2004 race for State Treasurer,  he won Bucks County by nearly 32,500 votes; and

* In Rendell's 2002 race for Governor, he won Bucks by an amazing 57,850 votes.

The Washington Post recently noted the likely "Rendell Effect" on this race:

Two of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents, Reps. Michael G. Fitzpatrick and Jim Gerlach, represent southeastern counties around Philadelphia, and could be swept out of office by a particularly ferocious Rendell tide, said Republicans and Democrats who are watching the two races.

As importantly, the facts on the ground - in municipal and local elections - are extremely promising.  There have been a number of prominent Republicans who have become Democrats as they watch the Republican party grow ever more extreme.  Additionally, the 2005 elections were a watershed year for local Democrats:

In contested elections on Tuesday, Democrats won 119 municipal and school board contests and lost 55.

Additionally, Democrats won 52 Judge of Elections slots and 155 Inspector of Election positions.

In total, we contested 391 races county-wide (the most in county history) and won 326 (an 83% victory rate).

Additionally, all of the Conventional Wisdom - make of it what you will - have noted the Democratic leanings of this district:  Charlie Cook labels the district as "D+2";  Larry Sabato included PA-08 in his "dirty thirty" most competitive races in the country; and, the Hotline has included it in its top 25 races to watch.  Additionally, the incumbent is a prominent member of the GOP's "Frontline Program", designed to protect the most vulnerable of Republican incumbents.  This national attention has really focused the District's attention on the race.

Chris Bowers described the race as one where "Democrats have everything in place for a pickup but where we are getting shredded in the money race. For that reason, I also think that these are [] districts that the netroots should seriously consider offering their financial support."  He said this about PA-08 in particular

There is another Democrat in this race, but if the DCCC can ignore Cegalis, then I can ignore Warren. (Update: Paul Lang is running for State Senate, which I probably should have noticed since I looked at his webpage before writing this). Murphy actually reaches out to the Philadelphia area netroots, and he has a large money lead over Warren and Lang. In this 53.2% Democratic performance district where Kerry scored 51.0% of the vote (and Gore snagged 52.9%, and Rendell got over 60% in 2002), Patrick Murphy has the biography, the charisma, and the broad-based support to win. He also has $1M less cash on hand than "deer in the headlights" Fitzpatrick (I heard Bob Brady joke that Fitzpatrick walks around DC looking scared and out of place). Like Ginny Schrader before him, and like everyone else on this list, the only thing that separates Murphy from this seat is money.

To show you how dire the situation is on the ground for Fitzpatrick, check out the numbers from this Club for Growth poll which included the district in its effort to gauge Republican support in swing districts:

• Only 29 percent of the sample said America was on the "right track" at the moment compared to 62 percent who said it had gone off in the "wrong direction."
  
• President Bush was viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 52 percent
  
• Republicans in Congress rated a 35 percent favorable score and a 45 percent unfavorable score
  
• Asked what "issue or action" the respondents most associated with the current Republican leadership, "corrupt/dishonest" ranked second behind only Iraq in voters' minds.
  
• And when asked to describe the "level of ethical misconduct in Congress today," 80 percent of those tested said the transgressions were either "serious" (50 percent) or "scandalous" (30 percent).  Only 14 percent described them as "minor."
  

Finally, the only poll that I have seen has Fitzpatrick well under 50%.

In sum, with a top tier candidate like Patrick Murphy, this District is primed to send a Democrat to Washington to clean up this disastrous, debacle that the Republican party has inflicted upon America.

The next installment will begin introducing you to the incumbent - Michael Fitzpatrick - an ethically challenged, flip-flopping archconservative who is bad for labor, bad for the environment, and shamelessly parades around the district as a moderate.