MyDD :: Super Late Night Thread

Super Late Night Thread

by Chris Bowers, Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:30:53 AM EST

Well, I ain't going to DC tomorrow (I mean today) for sure now. Here is an insanely late-night thread on the election for those of you still awake (I guess it is only 11:20 on the West Coast).

Well, that's it for me. In 2000, I went to bed about 5 minutes before Gore announced he would keep fighting, and as a result I didn't want ot go to bed before anything big happened tonight. But, seeing as how nothing has changed in the last hour, and that Tracy over at Swing State Project notes that "In 2004 Webb results didn't come in until the next day. I am headed out of the office now and will check in later," I think it is safe to go to bed now.

I'm more optimistic than I was around midnight. Looking at the numbers, there is definately still a chance for a run-off. If election day turnout in Webb and Zapata is low (and it might be, considering how low pro-Cuellar LaSalle county was--53% relative to 2004!), and if Ciro does a little better maong election day voters than he did among early voters, then it could happen. And, as Ciro himself says, we need to find out what happened in Webb county before this thing is over.
Man, we should have entered this race earlier. I reported a couple hours ago that we got beat pretty bad in early voting. But the story was different on election day:

Cuellar: 12,772 (57.98%) early, 5,543 (34.4%) so far today
Ciro: 7,579 (34.40%) early, and 9,689 (60.1%) so far today
Morales: 1,678 (7.62%) early, and 885 (5.5%) so far today

Granted, Webb's and Zapata's totals from "today" have not come in yet, but even when they do, there is almost no chance they would make up the deficit in "today's" votes. We were clearly closing hard at the end. Ciro actually looks like he will win a clear majority on Eleciton Day itself. No matter what happens, I think it is pretty clear that we really just needed to start earlier. Crio actually got significantly more votes on Eleciton Day than he got in early voting, while Cuellar is going to end up getting a lot more votes in early voting than he got on Eleciton Day. Arrrggghhh--we need to start hitting these things earlier.
Right now, the worst case scenario is that there are still 7,000 votes left to be counted from Webb and Zapata. If that is the case, we are toast. The best case scenario is that there are only another 2,500 votes to be counted, in which case there is still some hope. I don't believe in the Super Duper best case scenario, where Webb has already finished reporting. Were that the case, then a run-off would be assured. But I really don't think that is the case.
Current totals, with all the early vote in and 239 of 276 precincts reporting today's numbers:

Cuellar: 48.01% (18,315)
Ciro: 45.27% (17,268)
Morales: 6.72% (2,563)

Everything is done reporting now except Webb and Zapata counites.
I'd like to point out that Texas apparently has an open primary system, where Republicans can actually vote in a Democratic primary, and vice versa. Given this, Ciro almost certainly won the day among registered Democrats, and at the very least would have forced a runoff in a closed primary. As someone who has always been an advocate of clsoed primaries, I submit this election as Exhibit A. As disgusting as it sounds, if Cuellar wins the Democratic primary without a run-off, it will be because of the Republican vote. I love it when Republicans select the Demcoratic nominee! Someone please tell me again why we should have open primaries.
Here is my favorite comment of the night:
Zapata County is made up of good, hard working, blue collar folks. They voted overwhelmingly for Ciro, before Laredo was put into the mix by DeLay. They voted for Ann Richards by far, over Bush. They voted overwhelmingly for Kerry 2 years ago. So fuck off! They're voting for Cuellar besause they are part of Laredo's orbit. They are simply voting for the home boy. They are nor conservatives -- socially or otherwise. They're poor folk, mostly Mexican-Americans trying to get by. Theu are progressive-liberals, and good Democrats. So quit fucking dumping on them because you don't like that they voted for their home-boy.
Zapata is one of Cuellar's counties. I post this here so that people remember that the motivations of many good Democratic voters in this primary are not the same as the motivations we have in this election. Sometimes, it really is as simple as voting for the home-boy. Just because they are voting for Cuellar doesn't mean that the voters in certain areas of TX-28 haven't voted exactly the same way the vast majority of us have vote (or would have, has we been able to vote) in every election over the past decade.

Tags: election results (all tags)

Permalink :: 71 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Good points.

Access over 200 of the Net's finest progressive blogs through Pacific NW Portal - regional politics at your fingertips.

by BoiseLiberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:34:08 AM EST

so with 14% left to count in the Cuellar base. (none / 0)

51.99 -Anti-Cuellar
48.01-Cuellar

Do we have a shot i am to tired to do math.

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:37:52 AM EST

Re: so with 14% left to count in the Cuellar base. (none / 0)

You are assuming that 100% of Morales' votes were taken from Cuellar.

Bad assumption.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:59:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That isn't the assumption (none / 0)

At least not the way I read it. The way I read it is that who the votes were taken from is irrelevant, since Cueller has to get at least 50-percent.

by mikeinflorida on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:40:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That isn't the assumption (none / 0)

OK.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:48:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

We don't know about Webb. Please keep reading (other threads). If you've missed it elsewhere, Webb County had a "voting machine glitch". Rumor has it that the 9000+ votes from Webb are the total count, not the early ballots. If that's the case, then Ciro's in for a run-off race. If not, Ciro's probably done.

by Phoenix Rising on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:44:46 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

I heard this is going to be a long court battle...

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:57:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

As disgusting as it sounds, if Cuellar wins the Democratic primary without a run-off, it will be because of the Republican vote.

COME ON! Maybe there is a grain of truth to this, but that does not make the Webb County situation stink any less. And how many Republicans are there in TX-28, anyway? I though that was the point of this race, THERE IS NO REPUBLICAN BASE TO SPEAK OF.

Earlier you and kos were braying loudly about "monkey business" (kos) and "fraud attempt written all over it" (you). Did it occur to you that you are exerting pressure, that the Webb County results situation is that fluid? That the right people are gauging just how much they can get away with? That WEBB COUNTY hasn't even decided whether the reported results should be "early" or regular? (And if they are early, that's a hell of a jump in early voting from 2004.)

I don't deny that an open primary makes the election vulnerable to "honest" stealing, but think about what you are saying here. Bloggers may be having something of an influence on what goes down in Webb County.

For now, we have very, very suspicicious circumstances in Webb County. Don't raise an issue forcefully then back away hours later. Makes us think you've been to DC too many times.

by sean in iowa on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:57:13 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

More Bush people than Kerry people in TX-28 the district voted 53-47 for our lord allthough i cannot think of a GOP base in the district it's just spread out in the district.

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:00:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

I don't know how you could say for sure that Ciro "definitely" won the Democratic vote, and yet in the same breath, post about Zapata county Democrats--good, loyal, hard-working Democrats who shouldn't be ashamed of themselves--who voted for Cuellar. You need to give some evidence before you say that there was a major Republican effort to flood the primary on behalf of Cuellar. (Who knows, actually; maybe those "CUELLAR IS A REPUBLICAN" signs actually hurt more than helped.) Because as you yourself just said, there's more to people's choices than just ideology.

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 02:59:01 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Wouldn't have to be a major Repbulcian effort, in an election this close.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:04:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

You need to get a handle on your assertions, proclamations, and sundry pronouncements.

1) The primary is not over - only Zapata has yet to report, and if the ~75-80% turnout (vis-a-vis 2004) holds for Zapata, there are not enough votes remaining to put Cuellar over the top.

2) Webb County has yet to be resolved in any way, however based on the numbers from 2004, the low turnout between 2006 and 2004, and the fact that the current totals for Webb are 62% of the 2004 totals (a number not too far out of line with the other counties), I would say that the "early vote" totals in Webb reflect the TOTAL vote....

3) You have NO idea how many people crossed over to vote in the primary. None. Zero.

So, with your offhand remarks about vote fraud, your jumping the gun with respect to the results of the vote, and your adherence to your "model predictions" you have managed to give lots of ammunition for tinfoil hat fraudsters and doom and gloom eeyores, not to mention trolls and wreckers.

How about you start thinking about keeping control over your fingers before you type the first thing that comes to mind?

Discipline is required.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:16:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

seeing as we haven't heard from you since Oct 14th

Shut the fuck up.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:23:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Seeing as how you appear to be an asshole who cannot see fit to click onto my comments and see that I have been commenting sporadically here since February, I will politely invite you to go piss up a rope with your mouth open.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:28:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

"How about you start thinking about keeping control over your fingers before you type the first thing that comes to mind?"

"I will politely invite you to go piss up a rope with your mouth open"

The next time you pump out one million words in each of two consctutive years without ever managing to say something as foul as you just said in like your 25th comment here ever, then maybe you can talk to me about discipline.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

I am not the front page poster.

You are.

I am not the opinion leader.

You are.

Besides which, I give as good as I get - goplies was completely out of line, inaccurate, and apparently cannot be bothered to get his facts straight.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:36:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Well, you are certainly right that you are not the opinion leader. But you certianly seem to know exactly how one should act if s/he was an opinion leader.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

True.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:39:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Chris has worked harder in one week than you probably have your entire life. For you to come in here and put him down for doing the best job that he can is bullshit.

I call bullshit when I see it.

Rather than pointing out your superiority to everyone perhaps you could think about getting behind the bus and pushing.

Asshole.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:33:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

sleepy? (none / 0)

i thought the rope thing was thought provoking...i couldn't help imagining how that might work...better rant then most.

by aiko on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:29:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sleepy? (none / 0)

I have to admit I was curious as well.

lol

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:37:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Your Last Diary Entry:

Voter Fraud Clearinghouse
by RedDan, Thu Oct 14, 2004 at 11:13:25 PM EST

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:38:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

One Death is One Death Too Many
http://wewillnotbesilenced.cf.huffington post.com/

An amazing Flash project that is worth seeing.

http://bushflash.com/ pointed it out. Please post everywhere.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:12:42 AM EST

Early voting (none / 0)

Uggh, this is so frustrating. Just like CA-48 all over again, except much, much worse if only because we had such a better shot at this one. We can't let ourselves get slaughtered in the early ballots and expect to make it up with a big turnout on election day. I hope and I pray that Busby's campaign has learned this lesson and that they're making some effort to win the early/absentee ballots so that we might have some victory to drive the "Democratic flood" narrative.

God, I hate this. Let's do better with Busby. Let's do better by Lamont. We need these victories. We'll never have a better chance than we've been given this year.

by Ryan Anderson on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:23:14 AM EST

"Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

The total number of Early Votes for each candidate is badly skewed by the Webb results.

The Webb results are questionable at best.

Stop making pronouncements if you cannot be bothered to think them through first.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:30:28 AM EST

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

For someone who just said this:

"I will politely invite you to go piss up a rope with your mouth open"

To the first person who ever insulted them on this board, you certainly seem willing to quickly accusse others of not thinking before they type.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:36:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

I very carefully thought out my response to goplies, and I meant what I said.

Regardless, what about the substance regarding the makeup of the early vote numbers?

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

Look, Bexar's early vote toals were in 2006 were 49.3% of their 2004 vote. Webb's were 61.3%. That is something of a difference, but it isn't a huge difference. And consdering the variations on the other counties, which range anywhere from 11%-54%, is isn't unusual. Of course, I don't even know why I'm posting this, because I assumed you are buried under a sea of facts yourself.

Besides, the entire rumor on this front is being srpead from a single Dailykos comment where comeone called the Laredo office. One comment on Dailykos. The really irritating thing about you is that you are demandding that I adhere to facts, but in this case the "fact" is a single comment on Dailykos.

I don't buy it. The rumor has not been confirmed by anyone. No media outlets, no campaign sources, nothing. And I have access to a lot of those.

You are acting in a really belligerent fashion where you demand a lot from other people yet seem to live up to none of your demands yourself. And you really haven't posted much on MyDD in the more than 18 months you have been a registered member here. Bursting in a room and demanding that everyone do what you say, even though you aren't doing it yourself, isn't exactly the most productive way to act. The Demcoratic Party and the progressive movment is already super-satured with people who think they know exactly how to fix the situation the progressive movement finds itself in. I don't think we need any more

If you think you have a better appraisal of the situation than I do, then go ahead and post a diary about it. If the comminty likes it, it will hit the recomended list. But simply sitting in the peanut galley and telling someone that they need to act more responsibly, while simultanesouly throwing a beer can at that person, isn't going to accomplsih anything either.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:54:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

You are correct in what you say about my behavior. There is a reason I do not have my own blog, and why if I did it would probably be nowhere near third tier, much less first.

My assessment of the Early Vote tallies does not come from that comment on Kos, rather it comes from looking at the numbers themselves and pointing out that the "early vote" totals in 2006 constitute 61% of the total vote in 2004. Given that turnout has dropped considerably, I do not think that it is accurate yet to assert that these data are accurate. Given that there seems to be some serious glitches in the voting in Webb, I do not think it is prudent to report those numbers as hard facts.

I especially do not think it is prudent to make early calls and throw in the towel at this point in time. It is one thing for a commenter or diarist to do that - whatever. But it is another for a prominent, well-known and highly quoted blogger/proprietor to do it. It sets a bad tone.

I get extremely frustrated with the emotional volatility and extreme roller-coaster we on the Liberal side appear to have a bad habit of engaging in, and that frustration boiled over. Sorry.

As for the state the progressive side is in, and what to do about it and how to fix it...I am doing my part. I am extremely active in Democrats Abroad, busy securing votes for progressive seats on the DNC, progressive representatives to every major and minor Democratic committee, votes for progressive chairs of country committees and regional committees, and votes for Dean as DNC chair.

I have a pretty good idea what we on the progressive side face, and what I am trying to say, in my offensive, belligerent, and ineffective way, is that we progressives need to understand how to not wear too much of our agenda on our sleeves - it gives our "centrist" opposition (not to mention the Right) too many clues as to how to get our goat, how to attack us, and where we are weakest.

That's all.

Sorry for getting in faces.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:06:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

Boy you sure like to say "we" a lot.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:36:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

Do you have anything substantive to add?

Or are you going to tell me to shut up again?

'Cause I probably won't heed your advice in that case...although I will certainly try to temper my approach.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:46:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

Seeing as this is the most we have heard out of you I think I am doing the MyDD community a service by confronting you.

Sometimes you have to shake the carpet to see what's in it.

As far as substantive:

Just some advice, instead of nuancing words and temperments perhaps you should think about how you can help stop the war. Do something like save a life or three and stop worrying about verbs and adjectives.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 05:00:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not to put too fine a point on things, (none / 0)

but you really have absolutely no idea what I do or do not do each day in terms of trying to grow the progressive cause, to try and shift the Democratic Party leftward, to try and stop the war, to try and get progressives elected, to try and help save the environment, to stop the progressively accelerating pace of global warming, and so on.

Have you thought that perhaps one reason why I have spent so little time posting diaries here, comments hear...and indeed, have drastically curtailed my blog activity on all my other favorite sites to read...is because I am busy doing hands-on political work in "meatspace" as opposed to cyberspace?

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 05:07:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not to put too fine a point on things, (none / 0)

People are judged on their actions not on their intentions. Personally, you have never written anything that resonated with me. Perhaps you should rethink your line of work. Or maybe you'll insult me here too.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:48:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not to put too fine a point on things, (none / 0)

I am sorry that my writing does not resonate with you.

My apologies.

However, this is not my line of work, rather it is something that I do on my own time and my own dime. My work is something else entirely.

Perhaps I will rethink my interests, perhaps not.

And I will not insult you, because you have not insulted me, called me names, or told me to "shut the fuck up"...

People seem to miss that fact that while I may have been annoying to Chris, and maybe I was wrong in my criticism (see below). I was not overtly hosile or insulting. Probably over the top, but there it is.

On the other hand, when presented with foul, obnoxious and rude commands to "shut the fuck up," I responded in kind.

So it goes.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:55:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Speaking of actions versus intentions... (none / 0)

Democrats Abroad Pass a Resolution Concerning Impeachment

Democrats Abroad Pass a Resolution in support of immediate witdrawal from Iraq

Democrats Abroad Pass a Resolution in support of Censure of Both Bush and Cheney

Those are events that I have had direct and indirect impact on, including the initial drafting of several of the clauses of the Iraq Withdrawal Resolution.

You may not like my attitude or my writing style, but please don't preach action vs intentions at me.

Thanks.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Speaking of actions versus intentions... (none / 0)

Oh yeah, i'm the guy that posted all of your news and information on the Kerry-Edwards Forum so that people looking for news would be informed of your efforts. I also made sure that your site was on hundreds of international search engines.

DAGGER

by goplies on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Speaking of actions versus intentions... (none / 0)

First of all...thanks for doing that.

Second of all...it seems that regardless of personal differences, together we can make a difference. So, let's snipe at one another when rhetoric gets heated, but resolve to continue to cooperate when it really matters.

Third of all, which site are you referring to? Dems Abroad? Gators?

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Speaking of actions versus intentions... (none / 0)

Dems Abroad was the one I did the most promotion for.

I apologize for lashing out like that, seems to happen about once a month for me. I'll try to do the 10 second countdown rule from now on.

DAGGER

by goplies on Sat Mar 11, 2006 at 02:51:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"We, Us, Our" (none / 0)

The progressive Blogosphere is Not Punk Rock

...the majority of us simply want to share information. We are, in a sense, human servers dedicated to politics and various other interests. We interact with communities which you have no connections with, we have different resources, sources, and networks. As such we seek to be recognized when we bring something we feel is important into the discussion....

We don't want a writing position with some godforsaken corporate interest. We don't want to be stuffed shirt politicians. We simply want our politicians to listen to us, the American people. And if our Progressive Leaders won't even listen to us, what chance do we have of gaining the ear of a larger audience. It is your responsibility, like it or not, to listen and interact. Deal with it.

In our minds as soon as you start making money off of your audience or because of your audience, you have ceased to be a part of the revolution and have simply found yourself a niche market. We don't want physical upward movement, we want to see advancement of our ideas, words and actions by you, the top level bloggers."

Hello, pot! My name is kettle.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 05:04:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "We, Us, Our" (none / 0)

I hope I don't let you down, lieutenant dan.

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 06:32:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "We, Us, Our" (none / 0)

Please don't.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:46:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Early vote" is probably wrong. (none / 0)

I normally ice down my paintball gun ammo, and make sure the beers I throw are the ones fetched frozen from the freezer in the garage. Then again, I live in a largely republican district, and when I throw beers at someone, I am not trying to change their mind, I'm just trying to knock them out so that I can breathe for a while.

You guys really are kind of neat to watch sometime. Imagine if you were living in a world where every little thing Cheney says is considered intelligent. Whether or not you buy into the whole war of ideas going on, I promise you the key to winning it all is to have safe home base territory for both camps.

I will give you both only one warning, and I hope you can hear me: Karl Rove wants you to be political "junkies".

He doesn't want you to do the rest of the math, just to read the polls to reinforce your own prejudice or to pretend you're fighting for social change (which although traditionally is the way social changes can come about, in the current configuration you can count on being dismasted and sunk in the harbour if you're not fully organized by now and working in wolf packs, picking off their weakest).

Karl Rove has shades within everyone but appraising situations that have little or nothing to do with what you can do for your country is the epitome of wasted time.

But then again, I'm talking to a guy who likes to watch the tv show Runway . Just kidding. Chris, I like how you get into things, and you really do a good job - in your own way. If you are not too busy with English, maybe you can one day post about context, and polls - and expose the whole game of playing politics like baseball statistics , players salaries and absurd contracts for millions of bucks to know whose shirt you wear.

Leave the capsule, if you dare...
For here, I'm ... sitting in a tin can... far
above the world.

Planet Earth is Blue. And there's nothing I can do?

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 06:41:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

I awoke at 3 am, to find that Tom Delay had won re-election and the patriot act is on its way to Bush's desk for signature.

I specifically noticed it was exactly 3 am.

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 03:44:51 AM EST

Thank you. (none / 0)

"I'm more optimistic than I was around midnight. Looking at the numbers, there is definately still a chance for a run-off. If election day turnout in Webb and Zapata is low (and it might be, considering how low pro-Cuellar LaSalle county was--53% relative to 2004!), and if Ciro does a little better maong election day voters than he did among early voters, then it could happen. And, as Ciro himself says, we need to find out what happened in Webb county before this thing is over."

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:18:02 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

So if we make it to a run off, how can we help turnout?

by who threw da cat on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:39:17 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

It's not looking good right now with 274 of 276 in, the votes seem to be:

Cuellar 23,546
Morales 2,893
Ciro 18,217

that's not even close.

by kundalini on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:03:33 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

As much as I detest Cuellar's politics, he has done an incredibly good job of getting votes in this primary.

He has increased support in practically every county. His turnout is excellent and the result can't be explained by either Morales taking votes from Ciro, or by Republican support saving Cuellar, though a combination of the two has surely contributed to the margin of victory.

by kundalini on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:13:14 AM EST

Looks like Cuellar won it's to bad... (none / 0)

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:38:08 AM EST

That* (none / 0)

Oh well on to CA-50.

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:38:52 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (3.00 / 0)

It looks as if Mr. Bowers formulations were (unfortunately) correct. Cuellar looks to have nabbed 52-53% of the vote.

by Epitome23 on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:42:51 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Latest results

Let me just say, right up front, that Chris was right and I was wrong.

Your projections were quite impressive, Chris.

Let me follow up by saying that I still object to the snap judgement calls and the public, early, and in my opinion unwarranted proclamations of doom.

by RedDan on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 07:45:17 AM EST

Chris is right... (none / 0)

Remember there was NO Republican primary in this district. How many of these primary voters had a R by their names in the voter rolls.

This was, in effect, a four way general race, (a)Cuellar + Republicans, (b) Ciro, and (c) Morales.

Go figure it out.

by NvDem on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:07:12 AM EST

Re: Chris is right... (none / 0)

Texas voter rolls don't identify party affiliation. But I wouldn't be surprised if many who voted in the Democratic primary this time had voted in GOP primaries in earlier years.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:36:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

The difference between the early vote totals and the election day turnout is stark! We were in a dead heat race for election day but we started too late. As a God in Webb County Cuellar looks unbeatable! Open primaries, the right may have discovered a new way to win in one party Democratic Districts. I can see Novembers elction night now as the Democrats are proclaimed to have recaptured the House 218-217 and than Cuellar announces "Not so fast me amigos!"

by politics64 on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:18:23 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Yeah, I'm sure some voted for their homeboy.

Also, all politics are local, and I'm sure Cuellar's relationship with the Commander in Chimp got them some federal money they wouldn't have gotten otherwise.

I think the Delay general election will really tell us whether the average voter in Texas will accept favors over morality.

In my Chicago district Dan Rostenkowski was mixed up in the House postage scandal (which was kid's stuff compared to what Delay's into) and he lost to a Republican in a district that hadn't gone Republican before or since.

I was actually pretty shocked that the people of this hard-core Democratic district would oust such a powerful House member and elect a Republican back bencher for one term, just because they were outraged over ethics violations.

Wonder if Texans are just as disturbed by ethical lapses. I somehow doubt it.

by Bush Bites on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:30:11 AM EST

Webb had over 70% of the early votes but only 33% (none / 0)

of the total votes in the district. 12,772 early voters district-wide, 8,145 of them from Webb. So far 44,656 total votes in the district, 14, 455 from Webb. Click through and see for yourself. My percentages are eyeball estimates, but they are in the ballpark. This is weird stuff. And almost 70% of Webb County voted early, no where else did even a majority vote early. Is it easier to hide fraud in the early voting? There wouldn't be poll observers breathing down your neck, I suspect.

As of 7:16 CST:

ALL COUNTIES 23,546 2,893 18,217 44,656 274 276
Early 12,772 1,334 7,923 22,029

WEBB 12,265 720 1,470 14,455 29 30
Early 8,145 454 789 9,388 ... ...

Can a benign explanation be found for this? Why sure: "Cuellar got his people out early in his base county." That explanation can't make this smell good, though.

by sean in iowa on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:34:13 AM EST

Something stinks in Webb county (none / 0)

I hope Jerome or Swing state push this issue, I pulled data right from the Texas SOS site for 2004 and 2006. Here's what I posted over on dailykos. I understand that Webb is Cuellar's base but a doubling of voters from 2004 to 2006? come on!!!, either like I said on another post, Henry got alot of GOP voters to come out and pull the lever for him or definate fraud was involved. And pretty sloppy fraud!!!

from my KOS post:
When I compare your 2006 and 2004 with data right from the secratary of state website, Cuellar's Webb county's vote totals really soared, nearly doubling. The only county where this seems to be the case. Now, if you spent no time in Webb county shame on you if you have any money definately call for an investigation of the Webb county vote tallies. Get a hold of voter lists and try to get an accurate count of ACTUAL VOTER'S!!! Do NOT concede! This is a fight worth having!!!!

Cuelllar Rodriguez

2006 ??% (20486) (2264)

2004
Webb 31.2% 84% (12,894) 15% (2,431)

2006
12,341 727 1,475 14,543 30 30
Early 8,145 454 789 9,388 ... ...

by gasperc on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Webb had 64% of Cuellar's early votes.... (none / 0)

... but only 43% (9388/22029) of the district's total early votes. Still well above the 32% (14455/44656) of the district's total votes, but not unreasonably so.

More to the point, in Webb County, 64% of Cuellar's votes (8145/12265) were early votes. 63% of Morales's votes (454/720) were early votes, and 54% of Rodriguez's votes (789/1470) were early. District-wide, the corresponding figures are 54% (12772/23546), 46% (1334/2893), and 43% (7923/18217). So at first glance, it looks like early voting in Webb county was heavier across the board, not just for Cuellar. (Cuellar got 85% of the vote in Webb county and 87% of the early vote.)

Is it easier to hide fraud in the early voting?

If you think paperless electronic voting machines make it easier to hide fraud, then yes. Early voting is on EVMs - no paper trail. But the percentages don't look obviously askew to me. If the Webb EV results are fraudulent, they covered it well. The only way you might catch it is by checking voter sign-in logs, and seeing if either there were more early votes cast than voters who signed in (unlikely they'd be that stupid, but worth checking nevertheless), or else voters who "signed in" but never actually went to the polls (possible, but the fraudulent votes would have to have been added after the polls closed yesterday, otherwise; many voters might have gone to the polls yesterday only to discover they'd already "voted!")

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 12:21:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I misread the tables this morning... (none / 0)

thanks for the correction.

No smoking gun here, I agree. Whiff of gunpowder? Given the delays in reporting and the lack of transparency, hell, yes.

We'll never be able to prove/disprove fraud without transparency. I know- you are welcome for the cliche. And if I was going to organize a stolen election, and had the sweet setup the GOP machine has with its proprietary elections, I would not confine the monkey business to one or two counties. Maybe concentrate it in those places, but do just enough elsewhere so that you don't have to go all Soviet in Webb. I know, that doesn't doevtail with the "aha" hypothesis of Webb's delayed reporting, but...hell, there isn't much use in this unless you are willing to devote weeks of your life to analyzing old and current election data, and even then you can come up dry. All we are able to prove is that the election was not transparent and the election system is indeed a sweet one for the contemporary GOP.

Check out verifiedvoting leader David Dill's on fraud hypothesizing and election transparency, published at TomPaine yesterday.

I especially like this passage:

Theories of widespread election fraud are highly debatable, to say the least. Some people enjoy that debate. I do not. It encourages a sense of hopelessness and consumes energy that could instead be focused on long-term changes that could give us elections we can trust.

The election fraud debate frames the problem incorrectly. The question should not be whether there is widespread election fraud. It should be: "Why should we trust the results of elections?" It's not good enough that election results be accurate. We have to know they are accurate--and we don't.

by sean in iowa on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 06:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rove gave Henry his GOP list for the TX-28th (3.00 / 0)

There's no doubt in my mind that Henry had access to the GOP voters and contacted them during the early voting. I'm quite certain that a big chunk of the GOP voters in that district decided that if they can't have a republican they'd rather have Henry than Ciro. Just going over the early voter numbers so a big push from the GOP voting block. MyDD may have a point that we could have entered earlier and may gotten Ciro over the edge. But we are still looking at 50/41 vote totals, so it would maybe have meant a runoff at best. We'd still be fending off the GOP voters that Bush Inc would work hard behind the scenes. There are lessons here, no doubt. Some closer analysis is needed. and what were the "glitches" in Webb county about?

by gasperc on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:35:12 AM EST

Chris: Party Registration in Texas (none / 0)

In Texas, the means by which you "register" for a party... is by voting in that party's election. At that point, your voting card gets (literally) stamped with a "Democrat". And you're a Democrat 'til the next primary election.

So the following statement,

"Ciro almost certainly won the day among registered Democrats, and at the very least would have forced a runoff in a closed primary."

is actually incorrect... since everyone that voted in the Democratic primary is now, for the next two years, technically a registered Democrat.

Weird, huh?

Invest in nature

by NCDem on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 08:57:58 AM EST

Re: Chris: Party Registration in Texas (none / 0)

That is a weird system. I remember years (almost decades) ago in school one of my teachers talking about the registering for parties and how it was such a common thing to register for the party you oppose. The reason is so you can vote in primaries for the least likely candidate and help throw that balance off.

We need election reform so bad here. Our current system has way to many loop holes and dirty tricks screaming to be used.

Jamie
http://www.intoxination.net

by hovercrafter on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 09:41:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmm... (none / 0)

Looks like I won't be visiting my relatives in San Antonio and Eagle Pass anytime soon. Wait, is Eagle Pass even in 28?

Ah it's cool, I hate TX and wasn't planning on visiting them anyhow.

by MNPundit on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 10:09:21 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

It's not likely that GOP crossover made the difference. If that were the case, we'd see higher turnout, whereras what we got was significantly lower. It's far more likely that the simpler explanation is true: Cuellar made inroads (5-10%) into Rodriguez voters from 04, by virtue of solid constituent service and bringing home some pork most likely. It's really not any more complicated than that. What it shows more than anything is that Rodriguez really screwed up in 04. Incumbents just don't lose primaries, or shouldn't, anyway, with the huge advantages available to them.

by ColoDem on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 10:41:47 AM EST

Re: Homie Cuellar (none / 0)

One fact that seems not to have gotten into the national discussion about the TX-28 race is that the Cuellar name in Webb and surrounding counties is like the Kennedy name was in Boston. It is an old, large, and well-respected family locally. Ciro Rodriguez, clearly the better politician and better Democrat, let alone the better human being, can't compare in Family Juice - can't even come close, especially in the border counties. In person, Cuellar is polished, urbane, beautifully dressed - Ciro is an authentic boot straps guy, the first in his family to go to college, humble in demeanor, extremely hard-working. They are really night and day. I have encountered them both as they spoke to groups of influential white women. Cuellar comes off as a typical wealthy Hispanic surname slick kid, no accent, no home boy, he. Ciro is always himself at every event, with every audience, the same Texian lilt to his voice, the same clothes, the same open conversation, the same soft voice, no matter who the audience. What is important to know, is that in the border counties in particular, Cuellar has mucho Family Juice.

by dksbook on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:30:34 AM EST

Re: Texas Primaries (none / 0)

As a Texas Dem, in the spirit of fairplay and in protest of open primaries, I voted in the Democrat primary. Very tempting was the thought of voting AGAINST Sam Johnson, but I would rather have a strong Democratic candidate go against him in the actual election than him be defeated in the primaries by "another Republican Bob Johnson".

by bubbaoriley on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:31:50 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Crio actually got significantly more votes on Election Day than he got in early voting, while Cuellar is going to end up getting a lot more votes in early voting than he got on Election Day. Arrrggghhh--we need to start hitting these things earlier.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that early votes in Texas are recorded by electronic voting machines with no paper trail.

Yeah, it must be just a coincidence. No doubt.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 11:45:30 AM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

Or maybe it's a conspiracy?

by Epitome23 on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 12:08:50 PM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

I should point out that I see no clear evidence of fraud in the returns from Webb county or anywhere else. My point was more that if fraud did occur, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to detect.

We need to get rid of these infernal machines, not necessarily because they are being used to steal elections, but merely because they could be.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!

by Mathwiz on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 12:26:14 PM EST

Re: Super Late Night Thread (none / 0)

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